Twice on Thursday at the SEC Tournament, chalk held form for 40 minutes. Yes, Mississippi State was a worse seed than South Carolina. But they were favored and both the Bulldogs and the LSU Tigers took care of business. Florida and Alabama? Not so much. What does it all mean, both for Quarterfinal Friday and for a few programs contemplating tough coaching decisions? Let’s dive in.

Speaking of diving, take Florida basketball. Please. In a win-or-go-home SEC matchup with fellow win-or-go-home Texas A&M, the Gators laid an absolute egg. They trailed throughout, they alternated between sloppy and disinterested, and with 3:17 to go, a trio of A&M free throws made it 65-53, Aggies. Season over? Until it wasn’t.

For the next 3 minutes, Florida looked like an NCAA Tournament team. Kowacie Reeves pulled shots out his ear, his sleeve, and any other available opening — including a rare and clutch 4-point play in the final minute. Phlandrous Fleming played a couple of completely fearless minutes. With 19 seconds left, the Gators tied the game at 70 on another 3, and then withstood a final possession from A&M to force overtime. Season saved? Not so fast.

Even in overtime, the Gators scrapped and clawed and were tied again. They dealt with a missed jumper from Fleming that it clanged off the rim and just stuck. The game looked headed for double overtime. Until a seriously questionable call set up A&M for 2 tying free throws and then A&M guard Hassan Diarra, he of the 5.6 points per game scoring average and 26% 3-point shooting, rose up and drilled a trey in the actual final second. Aggies 83, Gators 80. A&M survived to face Auburn with its NCAA Tournament life on the line. The Gators are done.

Is Mike White done? Certainly, with the least surprising news of the season coming down on Tom Crean’s firing, the thought of coach shuffling has to be in play.

White is 142-88 at Florida, and the Gators are at a .581 clip in SEC play in his Gainesville tenure. Yes, White led the Gators to the Elite Eight in Year 2, 2017. But with Florida winning a total of 6 NCAA Tournament games in his 7 seasons at UF, his future is shaky. This Florida team finished exactly the way they should have. They never seemed to gel, but they also resisted the temptation to ever give up. They beat Auburn at a time when nobody else did. But they also lost to Texas A&M on a day when they just couldn’t.

And those Aggies? Any shot against Auburn on Friday? Auburn beat them by 17 4 weeks ago at home. The Aggies shot 3-for-22 from 3-point range in that game. They also were outrebounded by 13 boards. A&M went 9-for-17 from 3 on Thursday. They did struggle to keep the Gators off the offensive glass, giving up 15 offensive rebounds. Which means they’re halfway there to putting together something that can challenge Auburn. There’s no motivator like the NCAA bubble, and the Aggies have to win to keep moving up Joe Lunardi’s bubble watch.

Meanwhile, LSU was basically who we thought they were in thumping Missouri. Cuonzo Martin falls to 78-77 at Mizzou and hasn’t won a single NCAA Tournament in 5 seasons. He too could be moving on for more forgiving pastures. LSU was great on Thursday until the game was safe. A 22-point lead with 9:10 to go was whittled to 8 with Mizzou missing a couple of layups that could have trimmed it to 6 in the final seconds. But Tari Eason was sharp, LSU won, and that sets up a great matchup.

LSU and Arkansas both have their NCAA tickets punched. So who will prevail and move on to the semifinals? Arkansas won both regular-season matchups, by 7 in Baton Rouge in January and by 1 in Fayetteville last Wednesday. That last game demonstrated that LSU can give the Hogs fits. Had Eason not fouled out, LSU likely would have won the game. The old “beating a team 3 times is impossible”chestnut sides with the Tigers as well. LSU does struggle in close-out situations, though, which seems to point to Arkansas. As does the fact that JD Notae probably won’t shoot 3-for-12, like he did a week ago.

Mississippi State easily handled South Carolina in the not-quite-NCAA Tournament level game of the day. Even with Iverson Molinar shooting 6-for-20, the Bulldogs were golden. Carolina shot 28%, got outrebounded by 10, and lost the turnover battle by 3. The 22-point loss means Carolina has another season without an NCAA Tournament appearance since their 2017 Final Four run. Yes, that Final Four gives Frank Martin a good hold card. But what’s the statute of limitations for that one?

State moves on to play Tennessee on Friday. UT beat State by 9 in Starkville a month ago. The Vols rode big games from Josiah-Jordan James and Kennedy Chandler in that game. UT shot 42% from 3 and picked up 13 steals, which Chandler and Zakai Zeigler each swiping 5. The potential good news for State was that Tolu Smith had just 8 points and 3 rebounds in that game — but he had 20 and 12 on Thursday against Carolina. Tennessee feels like a solid favorite, but its offense can grind to a crawl in a hurry at times.

Speaking of grinding to a crawl, Alabama did exactly that in the second half of its late game with Vanderbilt. When Keon Ellis made a layup, Bama led 51-36 with 14:09 to play. But between the Tide running down the clock and the rest of the season, Vanderbilt had a run to make. Unlike Florida early in the day, Vandy didn’t burn all of their their energy getting close. No, the Commodores put up 46 points in the final 14:09 and grabbed a stunning 82-76 victory. (Relax, Tide fans. Joe Lunardi still has the Tide safely in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 6 seed.)

Scotty Pippen was an absolute foul magnet, shooting 21 free throws to put up 26 points despite shooting 5-for-19 from the field. Myles Stute added 6 threes, and Bama missed an astonishing number of close shots late (as well as seeing everyone not named Jaden Shackelford shoot a combined 2-for-18 from 3-point range).

Does Vandy have a shot against Kentucky? Well, they certainly have a better shot than when they were playing Wednesday night.

Kentucky beat Vandy by 12 in Nashville and by 7 in Lexington. Pippen had 32 and 33 points in the first 2 games of these matchups … so the good news is that he plainly plays well against UK. The bad news is that even with him playing like his father, the Commodores haven’t yet topped UK.

The crazy ending leaves Kentucky with a cleaner path through the bracket than they would have hoped. At the same time, a pesky Vandy team that shoots threes and camps at the foul line could give John Calipari a couple extra grey hairs. If Thursday taught us anything, it’s that sometimes the chalk holds for 40 minutes, but sometimes it only holds for 26 minutes or 37 minutes.