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Friedlander: Which ACC coach will be the 1st one out the door this season?
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The coaching carousel never stops turning. The only thing that changes is the names of those on the ride as it spins.
And they tend to change quickly.
Consider that the 2 most vulnerable ACC candidates when the season started – Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi and Virginia’s Tony Elliott – have both already matched or surpassed their team’s win totals from a year ago and are well on the way toward saving their jobs.
Even future Hall of Famer Dabo Swinney took a turn after Clemson’s ugly opening game loss to Georgia. But he quickly jumped off after rebounding with a pair of lopsided victories that quieted those suggesting the game had passed him by because of his transfer portal aversion.
That doesn’t mean their once-hot seats have gone cold. That’s not how this game of musical chairs is played. There’s always someone waiting to sit down and start feeling the heat.
We might only be 4 weeks into the new season, with plenty of football left to play. But already, the temperature is being turned up on a new set of coaches.
At various times last Saturday, there were posts on social media from fans of 3 conference schools – including NC State and North Carolina – suggesting that it’s time for their program to head in a new direction.
Who said rivals can’t agree on anything?
Only twice in the past 15 years, in 2021 and 2017, has the ACC gone through an entire offseason without a coaching change. That suggests at least 1 current conference coach won’t be back next year. Either by choice or by force.
Who will it be?
Here’s ranking of at the most likely candidates. At least until the coaching carousel spins back around and a new group of riders hops on.
5. Rhett Lashlee, SMU
Lashlee isn’t on the hot seat. Rather, he’s a hot commodity in the coaching game. He’s just 41. In 2-plus seasons as a head coach, he has a 21-10 record and a conference championship on his resume. Now that his Mustangs have moved up a weight class from the American Athletic Conference to the ACC, he has a chance to show that he can hold his own at the power conference level.
The SMU coach has the kind of profile that will make him an attractive candidate for virtually every high-profile job that comes open this year. Especially if his Mustangs continue to put up the kind of numbers they did in their 66-42 demolition of cross-town rival TCU on Saturday.
He’s young, he’s energetic and he’s offensively inclined with a track record that includes a track record of success as a coordinator at Auburn and Miami. He has high-profile hire written all over him.
4. Mike Norvell, Florida State
Norvell was the toast of the town in Tallahassee after leading the Seminoles to an undefeated regular season and ACC championship last season. He further endeared himself to his fan base and administration with his chest-pounding defiance in the wake of FSU’s Playoff snub.
But the shine has faded from his star quickly.
The downturn began with the mass defections that led to an Orange Bowl embarrassment against Georgia and picked up speed with the transfer portal whiffs that led to 3 straight losses to start this season, including a home defeat at the hand of his former team, Memphis. Saturday’s win against Cal has only calmed the situation.
With the toughest part of their schedule still ahead of them, the Seminoles will spend the rest of the season fighting just to gain bowl eligibility rather than a spot in the College Football Playoff. That’s hardly an advantageous situation for a program hoping to impress the SEC and Big Ten on the off chance it can buy its way out of the ACC.
If Norvell has one thing going for him, it’s that he parlayed last year’s success into a contract extension that will pay him somewhere in the neighborhood of $80 million through 2031. His huge buyout is a nice insurance policy, especially at a school that’s already crying poor.
3. Dave Doeren, NC State
The rumblings were already starting before Doeren’s Wolfpack went to Death Valley and got smacked around by Clemson on Saturday. They only got louder after a 59-35 loss that was much worse than even the lopsided score indicates.
State has been outscored 110-45 in its 2 games against power conference opponents this season. And it struggled to win the other 2 games against lesser competition. The offense Doeren built up through the transfer portal during the offseason hasn’t lived up to its expectations, and the defense hasn’t lived up to its usually high standard. It’s a combination that led a growing number of State fans to vent their frustration with Doeren on social media before and after the game.
Doeren is the winningest coach in program history and has delivered 8 or more wins in 6 of the past 7 seasons. There’s a good chance he’ll find a way to do it again this year. But at a certain point, you have to wonder how much longer just being good is good enough.
After the success of State’s men’s and women’s teams last spring and Doeren, himself, raising the bar on his own team in the runup to the season, that time might be arriving soon. Especially if isn’t able to continue his dominance of rival North Carolina.
2. Brent Pry, Virginia Tech
Pry is another coach who has contributed to his predicament by embracing the preseason expectations others placed on his program. In his defense, the hype seemed justified at the time. Even though the Hokies were only 7-6 last season, they finished strong by winning 5 of their final 6 games – including an overwhelming performance against Tulane in the Military Bowl. And they returned virtually every important player on both sides of the ball while adding several key pieces from the portal.
But instead of being the dark horse ACC contender many believed it would be, Tech stumbled out of the gate with an overtime loss to perennial college football doormat Vanderbilt. It followed that up last week with a loss to Rutgers. In both games, the Hokies fell behind by multiple scores early and never completely recovered. And with an ACC opener at Miami coming up this week, things don’t promise to get any better.
Instead of turning the corner, Pry’s program appears to be making a U-turn. His overall record is just 12-16. Even more telling is his 1-9 mark in 1-score games and a dismal 0-15 record when trailing after halftime that suggests he and his staff aren’t very good at making in-game adjustments.
Not only have Hokies fans begun calling for his head on social media, but at least one is shilling for Jon Gruden to be hired as Pry’s replacement.
1. Mack Brown, North Carolina
Brown quickly quelled speculation of his imminent retirement by walking back comments attributed to him following Saturday’s 70-50 embarrassment by James Madison. But it’s clear from the Hall of Fame coach’s body language, if not his words, that the end of his 2nd tenure in Chapel Hill is rapidly approaching.
At least 1 betting site has set the odds on Brown stepping down before the end of the season at -200 (66.7%). The odds of him being gone before the start of the 2025 season are set at +600.
At 73 years old, Brown has continued to coach long past the expiration date of others of his generation because he loves UNC, he loves being around and teaching young people and he loves the competition. That spark, however, appears to be flickering.
He has a national championship ring from his time at Texas, he’s already in the College Football Hall of Fame. He’s sent 2 record-setting quarterbacks to the NFL. And he’s already accomplished what he set out to do when he returned to the Tar Heels by cleaning up the mess left by his predecessor Larry Fedora.
He’s got nothing more to prove. All that’s left is to decide how and when he’ll walk away.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
