Betting Stuff: DFS picks for Week 3 of the 2024 season
When Week 3 wraps, most teams will be a quarter of the way through their regular season already. We’re starting to get a better sense of who’s who and what’s what. The slate looks a little lighter in Week 3, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t matchups we can exploit, beginning Friday night.
Here are 5 DFS plays to consider for the weekend. Everything below can be found inside the Sleeper Fantasy app. New users who sign up with the promo code SOUTHXL will get a deposit match up to $100.
Kansas State QB Avery Johnson more than 48.5 rushing yards
New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier had 130 rushing yards and 2 scores on 15 carries against Arizona in the teams’ Week 1 matchup. Last week, Northern Arizona’s Ty Pennington had 57 rushing yards on 10 carries if you remove the 3 sacks Arizona recorded. In those 2 games, Arizona has given up 117 scramble yards to quarterbacks. Avery Johnson will be the best athlete the Wildcats have faced so far at the quarterback position, and with the throw game still a work in progress, I suspect the K-State coaching staff might want to give Johnson opportunities to get the offense into a rhythm with his legs. He only had 3 rushing attempts in the Week 1 win and, with Kansas State falling behind against Tulane, the run game was lost. This feels like a great number for Johnson.
Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan more than 6.5 receptions
McMillan had 15 targets in Arizona’s Week 1 win and then just 4 targets in the Week 2 win. Were the Wildcats saving bullets? Or could they not get the ball to their 6-foot-5 future NFL receiver against an FCS defense? Since Noah Fifita took over as the Wildcats’ starting quarterback, McMillan has at least 6 receptions in 9 of 11 games. He had at least 7 receptions in 6 of the team’s final 7 games last season. Targets aren’t an issue, and now McMillan gets a suspect secondary without a clear-cut option to slow him down. Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah completed 19 of his 28 passes against the Wildcats in Week 2 for 342 yards and 2 scores. Outside receivers Mario Williams and Donte Fleming combined for 10 catches on 12 targets for 225 yards. I think Arizona is going to its star early and often, and I’m not sure Kansas State can keep him under wraps.
Virginia QB Anthony Colandrea more than 257.5 passing yards
The 6-foot quarterback from St. Petersburg, Florida, has started 8 games for the Cavs since stepping on campus prior to the 2023 season. He has already thrown for 2,612 yards in 10 career appearances. This season, Colandrea has completed 76% of his passes for 654 yards (297 in Week 1, 357 in Week 2) within an offense that is leaning toward the pass. In Week 3, he faces a Maryland team that currently ranks 107th in yards allowed per dropback, per game on paper. Colandrea has already hit 10 pass plays of at least 20 yards this season and Maryland has given up 9 of those plays. Colandrea has had at least 258 passing yards in 7 of his last 9 games. More of the same should be on tap for Saturday.
Michigan TE Colston Loveland more than 3.5 receptions
Loveland is about the only thing working consistently in Michigan’s offense right now. He leads all FBS tight ends in targets with 20. He’s averaging 3.2 yards per route run and only has 1 drop thus far. He’s been a safety valve for quarterback Davis Warren and that should continue against Arkansas State.
Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson more than 78.5 rushing yards
After Johnson ran for 187 yards against Iowa State in Week 2, Iowa assistant coach Ladell Betts told reporters, “If KJ’s not in, it’s just because he needs a breather.” The Hawkeyes have their new workhorse back. Kamari Moulton is the only other Hawkeye with double-digit rushing attempts so far this season, but there’s a significant delta between his 3.1 yards-per-carry clip and Johnson’s 8.5. Johnson served a first-half suspension in Iowa’s opener and since then, he has out-paced Moulton in terms of touches 36-10. That disparity should only grow if their current outputs hold, and Johnson should have plenty of room to run in Week 3 against Troy. In Week 2, Memphis ranked in the 85th percentile for EPA per rushing attempt against the Trojans; Troy stuffed nothing. That defense is currently allowing 6.8 yards per carry on the season, the third-worst mark in the FBS.
If the media experts made an irreversible mistake resulting in no television access to SEC football last week, my expectation would be one week is plenty of time to fix that. Wrong, again this week many communities have zero bars and restaurants with their game and it’s likely the SEC network is equally hard to buy at home as public places or they would have it. In every year past so far this has never happened. Personally I won’t even be looking for the SEC games next week. There are two other Championship college contenders within a reasonable drive and seats are available. Some people high up in the process are forgetting where sustainable public popularity comes from and over estimating its durability. SEC football, see ya (not)