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It has finally arrived. The College Football Playoff is here and the opening round offers 4 insanely appealing matchups. Interesting, none of the 4 have point spreads under a touchdown. The opening round of the 4-team Playoff was famous for its lopsided scores, but I’m not so sure we’ll see runaway games this year.
Indiana plays Notre Dame in the 7-10 matchup on Friday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
The following Saturday (Dec. 21), Penn State hosts SMU in the 6-11 matchup at noon ET on TNT. Texas then hosts Clemson in the 5-12 game on TNT at 4 p.m. ET. And Ohio State closes out the day by playing host to Tennessee in the 8-9 game at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Here’s what I’m paying attention to in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
- Last week: 4-4
- 2024 regular season: 68-56-1
(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Notre Dame -7.5 | Total: 50.5 | Moneyline: Notre Dame -278, Indiana +225
Indiana has one of the best offenses in the country on paper. Kurtis Rourke has the third-best QBR of any qualified quarterback in the FBS. Only Miami has scored more points. Per Game on Paper, IU ranks ninth nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play.
This should be a tight game if you were to just go off of what Indiana’s numbers say.
But it’s very difficult to look past that Ohio State performance.
Indiana has played 11 FBS teams this season. Here’s the offensive breakdown, split up by each opponent’s defensive ranking in SP+:
- vs. defenses ranked 1-15 (3 games): 5.0 yards per play, 0.511 points per play
- vs. defenses ranked 16-50 (2 games): 5.6 yards per play, 0.549 points per play
- vs. defenses ranked 51st or worse (6 games): 7.1 yards per play, 0.677 points per play
Against the Buckeyes and the Michigan Wolverines, Indiana averaged 3.5 yards per play, 0.304 points per play, and 11 yards per point. Every single snap was a grind. Every single point had to be strenuously earned. Rourke has been sacked 17 times all year and 9 of those came from the Wolverines and the Buckeyes.
Notre Dame’s defense ranks fifth in SP+. Notre Dame isn’t elite because it breaks opposing offenses’ gears (27th in success rate allowed), but rather because it wipes away the explosive plays and punishes passing games for mistakes. Only 3 defenses have more interceptions. Teams have been able to run on Notre Dame, but Indiana’s offense isn’t built to just line up and run over a defense like this one. The Ohio State and Michigan defensive lines, brimming with blue-chip talent, stone-walled the IU run game.
Rylie Mills, Howard Cross, and Jack Kiser are all future NFL players in the Notre Dame front seven. Xavier Watts is one of the best defensive playmakers in the country. Indiana just has not shown us it can step up in class and produce at the same level on offense.
Bet under 21.5 total Indiana points
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
Penn State -8.5 | Total: 54 | Moneyline: Penn State -340, SMU +270
Ohio State and Minnesota both shut down Penn State’s rushing attack and we know how those games went. Ohio State held Penn State to 13 points in Happy Valley. Minnesota lost by just 1. SMU ranks No. 4 in EPA per run faced, per Game on Paper. The Mustangs have given up just 2.7 yards per carry this year, the third-best mark in the FBS. Only 3 FBS defenses have given up fewer runs of 15 yards or more. And UNLV is the only FBS defense that has broken up or intercepted more passes this year.
What happens to Penn State’s offense when the run game can’t get going? In the Big Ten title game against Oregon, Penn State had its way with the Duck defense on the ground, but was rather mediocre through the air. Quarterback Drew Allar averaged just 5.8 yards per pass attempt in the game, threw 2 interceptions, and only managed 3 plays of 20-plus yards on his 39 attempts.
Drew Allar has mostly been safe with the football this season, but I simply do not trust Penn State’s offense if it has to consistently go to the air.
After SMU opened the ACC title game in disastrous fashion, the defense locked in and got the Ponies back into the game. SMU fumbled 3 plays into its opening drive, went 3-and-out on its second drive, and threw a pick on its fourth drive to spot Clemson a 21-7 lead after the first quarter.
Clemson scored touchdowns on each of its first 3 drives, needing just 14 total plays and 136 yards to gain 21 points.
Over its final 11 offensive possessions (excluding 3 runs that ran out the final 35 seconds of the first half), Clemson averaged 3.3 yards per play with 7 punts.
This is a massive psychological spot for Penn State. The Nittany Lions are viewed as a team that can’t win the big game. Since winning the Big Ten in 2016, James Franklin is 4-17 against AP Top 15 teams. Since the start of the 2022 season, Franklin has gone 1-7 against AP Top 15 teams. Playing this game at home is nice, and plenty will be made about the Dallas-based visitors potentially having to play in snow, but the atmosphere can quickly flip against the home team if Penn State starts slow.
If SMU can hold up in the trenches and do what it has done all year to opposing run games, this will be a tight game.
Bet SMU +8.5
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas
Texas -11 | Total: 51.5 | Moneyline: Texas -410, Clemson +320
I’m playing the under until it drops below 50 in this game. Consider everything that was just written about Clemson’s offense after SMU settled down. Consider that Clemson’s offense has shriveled up in a similar way against all of the top defenses it has faced this season. And consider that Texas just hasn’t been all that great on the offensive side of the football itself. This game will be excruciating to watch for those who love offensive football.
The Texas defense is outstanding. It’ll be the biggest, fastest, nastiest defense Clemson has faced since the Georgia game. (You might remember the Tigers scored 3 points and gained only 188 yards in that game.) The Longhorns are No. 1 nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play and they trail only Ole Miss in havoc rate, per Game on Paper. They give up the fewest yards per pass attempt of any team in the country and only 2 teams have more interceptions. Explosives are nearly impossible to come by; no team gives up fewer plays of 10 yards or more from scrimmage per game.
Meanwhile, the Texas offense is stuck in neutral. Quarterback Quinn Ewers doesn’t seem healthy. Wideout Isaiah Bond has been a no-show in the biggest moments. Steve Sarkisian has shown a reluctance to attack the middle of the field with the vertical pass game despite Texas possessing one of the better tight ends in the game (Gunnar Helm). Texas has managed touchdowns on just 2 of its 8 trips to the red zone in its last 2 games. In the SEC title game, fans were calling for Arch Manning to take over. Something just feels off.
Now, with 2 weeks to prepare, maybe Sarkisian can figure something out. Texas needs a fast start to relieve some of the pressure that has been building up. Ewers threw an interception on the first Texas possession of the SEC title game, marking the fourth time in 13 games this season the Longhorns have turned it over on their opening drive. They’ve only scored points on 3 opening possessions in 13 games.
Maybe Clemson isn’t good enough to press the Longhorns’ problem areas. If Texas figures out the offense, the Tigers could get blown off the field. But that’s a Texas-sized “if.”
Bet under 51.5 total points
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Ohio State -7.5 | Total: 47 | Moneyline: Ohio State -270, Tennessee +220
This is easily the most fascinating game of the first round to me. Tennessee’s pass game doesn’t jump off the page, but we know Nico Iamaleava has the arm strength and Josh Heupel has the acumen to take advantage of Ohio State’s bad cornerback play. Tennessee’s offensive and defensive lines are outstanding in the run game. Dylan Sampson is a deserving name on the Heisman Trophy ballot. The Vols’ pass defense is the squeaky wheel and Ohio State has some of the best receivers in the sport. The Buckeye defense is outstanding on early downs, which might limit Heupel’s ability to get to some of those deeper plays he’ll want to hit. These are 2 teams that have national championship ceilings but, for one reason or another, have not consistently played to their potential this season.
In its loss to Michigan, Ohio State was heavily criticized for what many believed to be a concerted effort on the part of the offense to prove it was the more physical team than Michigan and run the ball at the Wolverines. Ohio State ran 26 times for 77 yards.
That game actually marked a season-low for the Buckeyes in terms of their run rate. They ran on just 44% of their overall offensive plays. When the Buckeyes faced Penn State, they had a run rate of 62.5% with an average of 4.4 yards per carry in a 20-13 win. Ohio State’s offensive line shined brightly that day.
In the Nebraska game and then again in the Michigan game, the offensive line struggled.
I don’t necessarily care if Ohio State is running to “prove something” or running to set up Will Howard to be able to connect with Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State has to be able to run the football efficiently against this aggressive Tennessee defense. The Vols give up 2.8 yards per carry, which ranks fourth nationally. Per Game on Paper, the UT defense sits in the 90th percentile for stuff rate, in the 96th percentile for line yards allowed, in the 97th percentile for EPA per run allowed, and in the 99th percentile for opportunity rate allowed. The defensive front is winning and the second level is crashing hard to the ball to clean up everything else.
If Ohio State cannot establish the run, the homefield advantage disappears.
And that’s where you question the Buckeyes in this matchup. What mindset is Ohio State in after losing — again — to Michigan? Are they a shell of themselves? Do they fire off the ball? How quickly will the crowd turn on Ryan Day if Ohio State is ineffective early on offense? Day is coaching for his life in this postseason. If Ohio State is 1-and-done, there will be some very antsy people in Columbus. All the pressure is on the Buckeyes. All the talk will be about the Buckeyes over the next 2 weeks.
We could point to 2022 when Ohio State lost to Michigan, missed out on the Big Ten title, and then scored 41 points on Georgia in the game of the year. That team had CJ Stroud at quarterback. This Ohio State team is not built the same way.
Bet Tennessee +7.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
