Bill Lets Party Belichick

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@Oskie my closing argument is that the FPI is a weak metric. I stand by this, at the end of the day it is a “predictive” model with a 75% overall successful rate on an outcome that already has a 50/50 chance of being correct. It doesn’t account for injuries and production or lack there of from injuries. Many individuals including Vegas oddsmakers have higher percentages that 75%. Oscar the Octopus and Achilles the Cat have a higher percentage at predicting the winner of of a 50/50 athletic event than the FPI. With your logic are you saying that Oscar and Achilles are a strong metric? Perhaps the kids on YouTube that simulate NCAA 14 with updated rosters should factor in, after all it is a predictive model based off of a points added rating system. As far as no reason to believe that TN will beat SC if your sole argument is the FPI then no you aren’t proving me wrong. If you had valid points to why TN improved at a better rate than SC since last year’s meeting then fine there’s a discussion there but a computer simulation that has a smaller success rate than an Octopus is far from a debate. Best of luck on your season. At the end of the day no one is winning this argument, you have your reasons for believing in a predictive measurement I have mine for not believing in it, no use wasting anymore time on it, it’s a predictive measurement, not fact. I’ll gladly accept your apology come October.
5 is reasonable, 3 is not. I would say starting with firing Fulmer after one year with a new OC was quick as well. If they fired Fulmer for slowly sliding in recruiting that’s understandable, but that didn’t seem to be the case.
Sure and I am done with this, because it is going no where. FPI lacks vital information in its model. It fails to account for several items including production lost to injuries. The FPI also changes week to week, so what is 57% today could change week to week by October, it’s not a set number. I argue that FPI is not enough of a reason to believe TN will beat SC because if it’s inefficiencies I’ve explained.
@oskie because the chart fluctuates, it’s not a perfect bell curve or in this case an inverted bell curve.
@oskie simple because it swings back when predicting those way outside of the top 25. Same principle it’s easy to pick teams like Rice winning 1 game out 12. Same principle if FPI is right 11 of 12 that’s a 92% rating.
I didn’t call you personally a dipsh*t until you made a wild accusation. In regards to others being called that it didn’t have to do with my argument, it was purely a trolling attempt by someone who admitted that they could care less about the argument. I’m not the least bid agitated just another assumption by you.
But you fail to comprehend that number is inflated by the top 10 predictions. It’s easy to say Alabama wins 11 plus games next year. If you got 11 out of 12 right that’s 92% right. That percentage slips when you are taking about middle of the pack teams. The margin would be roughly 40% or less correct when talking about numbers 15-25. 40% is not a reliable outcome.
No because it was in response to your accusations calling someone butthurt when your weak argument went off the rails. You accusing me of being a butthurt homer is where your Ad hominem took the argument off the rails.
There’s zero evidence to believe something will happen is vastly different than saying there is zero chance of something happening. Put please prove me wrong, enlighten us as to how having a reason to believe something will happen and stating there is no chance of something happening is the same. Comprehension is key. I’m well aware of how arguments work and the many fallacies you learn in any basic Science and Reasoning class, my issue is you are so off the rails, it’s hard to find what you are claiming as logical fallacies. So your evidence is that a model that only gets 75% of an outcome that is 50% right is a valid measurement, I disagree and have provided stats to prove. As far as the article I’ll check later when I have more time to sift through old articles.
My apologies it should be inside the Top 10 those statistics slides from 75% the further you go down the list.
There’s zero evidence to believe something will happen is vastly different than saying there is zero chance of something happening. Put please prove me wrong, enlighten us as to how having a reason to believe something will happen and stating there is no chance of something happening is the same. Comprehension is key. I’m well aware of how arguments work and the many fallacies you learn in any basic Science and Reasoning class, my issue is you are so off the rails, it’s hard to find what you are claiming as logical fallacies. So your evidence is that a model that only gets 75% of an outcome that is 50% right is a valid measurement, I disagree and have provided stats to prove. As far as the article I’ll check later when I have more time to sift through old articles.
My argument is I don’t put much stock in a system that is only correct roughly 40% of the time dealing with non top 25 teams. The overall percentage is 75% correct overall when there is a 50% chance of picking the winner correctly. It is weak metric.
FPI has less than a 40 % success rate when predicting some teams outcomes, while having an 80% predictive success rate with others. I believe the last overall success rate of FPI is around 75 %. Sounds good until you see that by picking certain teams to be successful (Clemson, Bama, etc) and being right brings those percentages up, while picking closer games, FPI is 50% or less correct. That is not a reliable stat. Also unlike the NFL model, ESPN’s College Football FPI does not take in account the lack of production from injuries. Now I ask again, what makes TN better than SC this year considering what both teams have lost or gained, and what production is coming back?
How is the statement that there is no reason to believe that TN beats SC the same as saying that there is no way TN can win, those are two completely differing statements, your lack of comprehension is astounding. My statement is that given the evidence I laid out clearly above to believe that TN will not beat SC, not that they couldn’t. Point out one argument that has logical fallacies, I unlike you have given examples to back up my arguments. If you wish to continue to deny that you called TN a contender in the East last year that is fine, keep being dishonest the proof is in the comments section from last year, Anyone that concerned about you can look them up.
Not a bad list. If Wonnum, Horn, Greene, and Williams stay healthy and produce like expected they could make the list by years end.
@oskie let me hit you with the facts. I responded to one FL fan who commented on how SC fans would react, no trolling at all. I provided stats and a valid argument as to why the FPI is not accurate when it comes to teams outside of the Top 10. I stated and stand by the statement that there is no reason to believe that TN beats SC. I never said TN couldn’t win, you made that up. You said this time last year that TN would compete for the East, hence “this is our year.” If you want to be untruthful, that’s on you. I called you on your BS and now you have resorted to making stuff up. You and a few others are the reason no one takes Vol fans serious anymore.
He would be a nice addition to BMacs uptempo offense.
He should be a zero but given TN’s recent history, the fan base and admin have been quick to fire.
“This is our year”- oskie every preseason And don’t flatter yourself, you responded to me not the other way around.
Oskie they get paid by selling ads so dipsh*ts like you go out and buy sh*t because ESPN made you feel special by telling you have a chance at not finishing last this year, and you bought it, hook, line, and sinker. It’s all good though you will disappear again come October nothing new.
“I love seeing all these people disappointed,” - Will Muschamp in Knoxville
Oskie people who get paid to predict games ie analysts are not paid to get predictions right, I guess when you are bottom of the barrel you cling to any false hope that ESPN gives ya. Glad to see you took the preseason bait again, saddle up for disappointment
This is the same SC team that beat TN last year despite having more than 26 players missing more than one game due to injury.
@raptor I respect your passion and insight into the Vol program. You are one of the rational and reasonable fans that has valid arguments. I agree Pruitt is on the right track but it’s not going to happen over night.
TN has FL, Miss St, GA, and Bama before SC, all could be double digit losses heading into the SC game
I see 7 wins for SC this year one of them coming in Knoxville, no reason to believe otherwise, hardly winning a natty but I guess if the team I suppoted finished dead last year in the East, then I guess a 7 win season would seem like a natty, nice try, dipsh*t.