John Galt 1794

While UT is only favored in one of three games, ESPN's FPI gives a 57.85% chance of making it to a bowl overall. To calculate the bowl probability correctly, you have to sum the likelihood of all outcomes that lead to a bowl. In those three games, there are 8 combinations of outcomes (2^3). Four of those outcomes have at least two wins, and their combined probabilities are well over 50%.