ragebot

Jack DeWalt long term the FS AG's antitrust investigation is much more significant than the FSU v ACC suit. Long term just like they did with transfer rules and the NIL the courts will step in and there will be something like the 1961 Sports Broadcasting Act that granted antitrust exemption to the NFL.

FSU is in the top ten in both recruiting and the portal and favored to win the ACC in 2024 which would be a lock to the twelve team playoff. By all accounts Norvell would have long term job security at FSU unless there is a complete crash and burn there. Much has been made of Bowden saying the path to a natty was easier in the ACC than the SEC; something even more true with a twelve team playoff. There is also the 'guy replacing the guy' thing.

Norvell has jumped from an also ran to second place in the Las Vegas odds. Thing is DeBoer the Washington coach has the best odds now but that seems to be changing faster than I can keep up. Norvell has a low four million buyout and is an up and coming coach. Thing is FSU currently is in the top ten in both high school recruiting and portal transfers and with the twelve team playoff and only ND and Clemson as teams they will not be heavily favored to beat next year seem to have a good chance at the playoffs. In fact FSU just got a needed OL guy from bama through the portal today and a nice WR yesterday. The big unknown is how much money bama will throw at the various possible coaches; along with the 'you wanna be the guy that replaces the guy that replaced that guy'. What ever happens the new coach at bama will have to play UG, UT, and what will likely be an improving TAM (talk about a school that throws money). Even UT (the one to the North East not the West) and Ole Miss are possible losses. Seems like bama did not throw enough money at Lanning to get him to come. Hard to say if they can outbid UT for Sark (who has only marginally worse current odds than Norvell) but probably could pay more to Lane than Ole Miss. To me the biggest downside to the bama job right now is almost for sure whoever they get will not live up to the Saban standard so I would look at the current situation at schools where the coach might come from. FSU seems to be reloading with an easy schedule and have a good shot at the twelve team playoff. Washington lost a seriously good QB and is not really recruiting all that well and unless you really go down the totem pole does not have the big bucks some of the other schools do. Oregon has Nike money to burn, same with Texas. Clemson is not all that rich and seems to be similar to Washington in some respects. I have to wonder about Saban's timing. Not saying bama is bleeding in the portal but his delaying the announcement a little might make more sense in keeping players from leaving.

REALITY CHECK TIME While today's move by FSU to leave the ACC is the headline lets not forget the FL AG sent a ten page CID letter starting an antitrust investigation that presented a prima facia case of antitrust violations. The elephant in the room Disney/ESPN/SEC/CFP are all trying to avoid is the 1961 Sports Broadcasting Act that exempts the NFL from antitrust laws. To get this act passed the NFL pays every team the same amount of the TV contracts. There is also a wealth tax and salary limits for new and veteran players so teams are on equal footing; not to mention bad teams get to go to the head of the line when draft time comes around. The 1961 Sports Broadcasting Act is a very bad fit for college football since conference pay outs differ greatly and there are no limits on NIL money. Not to mention there is a current Title IX case in CA claiming not all athletes (read female athletes) get the same access to NIL benefits (spoiler alert the lawyer bringing the case (in part for the girl's volleyball team members is a top tier guy with a record of success). So to make things even messier there needs to be some agreement on how to handle money going to non revenue sports. One obvious solution is a 64 member super conference for football with all teams getting the same TV money and hard limits on each schools NIL money; not saying these are the exact details but you get the idea. Other wise the antitrust exemption goes away. As an aside the ACC has some real problems. First off the contract with it's members is kept in the ACC home office and can not be copied or removed so lawyers have to travel to the home office to read it and look for loopholes (reports are FSU lawyers have made ten or more trips there) and I expect this will be the first ACC rule to go once the FL AG's case has it's first hearing. Bottom line is expect big changes and I would not be shocked if we never see a 12 team playoff; instead the super conference with won/lost records being the path to the playoffs.

See my post above about AAU membership.

Just so we are all on the same page about AAU membership. The reason Nebraska had AAU membership when it joined the Big10 and lost it was because Nebraska severed connection with it's medical school and a medical school is a requirement for AAU membership. FSU now has a medical school and has had it long enough to qualify for AAU membership. As an aside FSU has a top tier physics department and a long standing connection with CERN (if you don't know what that means go sit in the corner) due to the fact that FSU has the largest magnet in the world in the Mag Lab and does cutting edge research on small particle physics. FSU also has a top tier meteorology department (the only one in the state) and some of the most accurate hurricane prediction models. Quite a good math department and urban planning department as well.

Not much question there is a prima facia case of antitrust violations under the 1961 Sports Broadcasting Act. That act gave the NFL antitrust exemption because the NFL splits the revenue equally among all NFL teams. There are also rules about salary caps, wealth tax, and draft order which were needed to get congress to pass an act exempting the NFL from antitrust laws. Just my two cents but the obvious parallel in college football would be a 64 (put in your own number) team super conference with broadcast revenue split equally among the teams, a max limit on NIL money for each team, and some way to deal with non revenue sports. The fly in the ointment is that there is currently a Title IX suit in CA claiming not all athletes (read female athletes) have the same access to NIL benefits and the high profile Title IX lawyer running the case has a solid record in court. Bottom line is this is as serious as a heart attack and the first round in big changes in college sports.

So what is the over/under on how much Disney/ESPN/SEC/CFP will wind up paying as a result of the FL AG bringing legal action. The prima facia anti trust case is Disney owns ESPN which has a contract to broadcast SEC games and an ESPN employee stated on air ESPN would profit by around $US150,000,000 if an SEC team was in the playoffs which is definitely motive for anti trust collusion. This is what the FL AG discovery letter was all about; looking for proof of this. I definitely would not look forward to taking this to a jury, especially a friendly jury in a forum shopping jurisdiction. FSU was a dog in the LSU game and Clemson game and won both so saying they would be a dog against UM or UGA won't carry much weight in court; even if the smart money might not be on FSU. Bottom line is Disney/ESPN/SEC/CFP had motive, means, and opportunity to pick bama over FSU and a defense of 'we wanted better games' seems weak. And as a side bet who thinks Disney/ESPN/SEC/CFP will wind up getting a non disclosure agreement and paying big bucks in an out of court settlement.

I have to wonder if this analysis was done before or after the NCAA forced Smith to sit out the game. Seems funny that did not change the line.

As a FSU fanboy who expects FSU to be in the SEC sooner or later I have to say the first game of the season when FSU and LSU meet in a semi neutral stadium in Florida will say a lot about the season for both teams. In some ways both FSU and LSU have lots of similarities. Both did better than expected last year, both had solid additions from the portal, both seemed to have some losses that did not reflect the success they had, and both have been getting lots of hype. Which ever team wins the first game will get a big boost in the hunt for the natty while the team that loses will have a much narrower path. No question this game will be watched by a lot of eyeballs.

After watching football for well over 50 years the biggest factor lots of peeps ignore is luck. TAM hired a new OC who is suppose to be a really smart guy but just how good do you have to be to have a good offense with Lamar Jackson at QB. TAM hired a coach a while back who won a natty with a team that had a generational college QB and every starter on the O and D wound up playing on Sundays. Not to mention the team Fisher beat to win the natty had one of the luckiest two games I can remember to get into the natty and Fisher just barley managed to squeak out a win over a more than two TD underdog. UGA lost to Auburn on a crazy tipped pass into the hands of a wide open WR and Bama needed a crazy review of an out of bounds putting one second back on the clock and a kick six to lose to Auburn. Talk about luck. Sanders comes into a bottom tier college and puts together fairly good regular seasons but gets his clock cleaned in both the bowl games he has. Not to mention in his last bowl game the officiating was in the running for the worst I can ever remember; not to mention the time keeper seemed to have spastic fingers. In both games Sanders was outcoached by a mile. Not that is anything unusual but the CU admins voted to lower the admission standards as a prerequisite for Sanders accepting the coaching job there. I am not sold that Sanders is even an average Xs and Os coach and what happened to TAM last year shows that raw talent does not always result in wins on the field. As an aside can anyone name the last coach who's son was QB that won anything. As a disclaimer I was a student at FSU during the beginning of the Bowden years and saw FSU go 14 straight years never finishing lower than #5 in the rankings. As for the current Norvell coached FSU team my impression is they are punching above their weight which means they always have a punchers chance. Hard for me to judge just how good they are but they do seem to be improving and getting players from the portal to fit their needs rather than splashing five stars that don't always pan out. Not sure they have the horses to get to the playoffs but they do have a real shot at the ACC title. YMMV

You seem to be missing just how different LSU is playing now than when FSU got a win in the first game of the season. Not to mention he is a freshman and seems to be getting better faster than expected. Not saying UGA is not a bear and my pick to win the natty but to do so they will definitely be scheming around Perkins.

Probably depends on how the contract is worded, and how good a lawyer those contesting a contract have.

I have seen scattered gripes about Napier but on the whole I suspect it is a wait and see situation. Truth be told the last game of the season against FSU will mean a lot in how Napier is viewed. While not the top rival for each other that game still is meaningful for both teams and probably the second most important game for both teams.

Wish I had a nickel for every TAM fanboy post where they are pissing and moaning about something. Nothing ever seems to be TAM's fault it is always the refs or whatever. Just a warning for TAM fanboys look up what APR means.

Not to be "that guy" but Thucydides wrote in his introduction to his book The History of the Peloponnesian War written between 411 BC and 431 BC that he wrote about the war so others could learn from history and not repeat the mistakes.

Truth be told Fisher is a classic example of the Peter Principle; some one promoted above their level of competence. Fisher is a very good OC if he is given the right tools to work with (or is able to luck out and get them himself). Winston was a great fit for Fisher since he was a fairly smart kid who loved to study (don't forget as a true freshman he was an engineering major who took a calculus class and passed) so he could deal with the complex and complicated Fisher playbook. Not to mention the 2013 FSU team was very lucky with injuries and every starter on offense, defense, and special teams played on Sundays. Maybe lighting will strike again for Fisher at TAM and he will get a generational QB with an unreal supporting cast able to avoid injuries; but I am not betting the farm on that.

FSU fanboy here and I saw Fisher get many highly ranked recruiting classes and still not produced results on the field that matched the recruiting. The year he won the natty FSU had some of the best luck I have ever seen in terms of injuries. Still Auburn almost won the game as more than two TD underdogs because of Fisher's bad coaching. In the second half a FSU WR lined up on the Auburn sideline and started screaming at Fisher that a former FSU assistant coach was now an assistant at Auburn and was stealing Fisher's plays to the offense and relaying them to the Auburn defense; only then did the FSU offense start playing up to it's abilities. Maybe Weigman is what he is cracked up to be but Winston really was a generational QB at FSU along with one of the most talented teams across the board that college football has ever seen with great luck with injuries. The 8&4 business is based on TAM history of going 8&4. The nervous laugh belongs to TAM fanboys and is based on how silly TAM looks for paying Fisher way more money than his on field record justifies. Fisher's problems at FSU started when his inability to deal with admins/boosters at the school came to a head over what I will call off the field issues. While lots of folks point to Winston's off filed issues they were far from the only ones. Francios well documented drug problems were a big part of his downfall but they were limited to pot. Even more serious was the second highest rated QB (and the kid had skills) in FSU's history Malik Henry who had a habit of flying on an airline made of snow so frequently he never really got a shot at playing. Bottom line is highly ranked classes and top tier high school QBs don't always result in wins on the field; especially with a coach with a history like Fisher has.

This article has to be a joke. Johnson had nothing to do with the hogs missing a chip shot field goal that hit the top of the standard (can't remember the last time I saw that) by a usually reliably FG kicker. Same goes for the crazy goal line fumble by the hogs that was run back for a TD after a handoff by the guy who recovered the fumble. Not to mention the muffed punt by the canes that led to a TAM score. Bottom line is TAM was lucky to win both games and mistakes (and the canes turning into a dumpster fire) were the real reason for the wins.

I started law school at FSU in 1975 and watched the entire Bowden era and how Fisher came in as the OC at the end. What is sometimes overlooked is Bowden/FSU were definitely going slightly downhill towards the end and bringing Fisher in was a good move. Also overlooked is Bowden was in a race with Paterno for the most wins by a big time coach. But Fisher wanted to take over as HC sooner than Bowden wanted to leave. Fisher was able to get support from the big money boosters to force Bowden out and get the HC position. No question he was a great OC and along with help from the big money boosters got FSU headed in the right direction. But while Bowden was universally liked Fisher rubbed a lot of people wrong from the start (and truth be told continues to do so to this day). My take is Fisher is a classic example of the Peter Principle, someone promoted past their level of competence. As a OC Fisher was one of the best around but a HC has to have something of a different skill set and Fisher lacks some of those skills. As for the 2014 season FSU/Fisher was more than lucky in many ways. One of the biggest strengths of the FSU team was there were no injuries; something seldom mentioned (what would have happened if Ewers had stayed in the UT/Bama game). While much has been made of Fisher's offence play book Winston was the perfect fit for it. After Winston's first game against Pitt it was revealed that Winston still had hand written notebooks from the 9th grade dealing with football offense. The film room was never an issue for Winston, he thrived on it. Not to mention as a freshman who was red shirted Winston started as an engineering major and took calculus; something the coaches discouraged. Winston was not just gifted with generational athletic skills he was also very smart and not afraid to do more work than necessary to maximize his talents (Johnny Football I am looking at you). Bottom line is the "fluke" was a generational QB on an unnaturally healthy team with great talent across the board in a less than stellar conference and more than average booster money at a blue blood school with an OC promoted to HC who had a great offensive mind; a set of circumstances that is seldom found.

At the start of the season, and even preseason, plenty of fans think their team has a chance. What the NIL has done is reduce that number.

Maybe it is because I have been around a lot longer than most peeps but I have to disagree with a lot of this article. No one can realistically say there were not bagmen who used money, girls, cars, whatever to recruit players. But there was a limit because really big payoffs were simply too hard to hide. When I look at some of the NIL deals being handed out now I remember when FSU got the dis of being Free Shoes University and have to laugh; free shoes as an inducement seems quaint. I can also remember the days when FSU, UF, and UM seemed to require that the natty had to go through Florida. While all three of those schools had successful no one would ever claim they were the real big money schools. Same goes for places like Nebraska and Oklahoma who dominated college football in earlier times. While I am not an NCAA fanboy I do give them credit for keeping a lid on the worst of teams buying players. What concerns me most about the NIL is that it may well wind up killing the goose that laid the golden egg. Currently the big money schools are dominating recruiting and there are not that many big money schools which means not that many eyeballs will be watching. One thing I do agree with is fans watch college football because of an affinity for the schools. Not saying UF is not a big time school but TAM, Texas, USC (in CA) and Oregon/Nike are really in a class by themselves in terms of spending money for players. When the media (which I agree is too woke and often hard for me to read or watch) report that OSU needs $US13,000,000 to keep it's current class I am amused because TAM supposedly paid $US31,000,000 for the best rated class in history. When a big time team like OSU is spending about one third of what TAM is spending you don't need to have a college degree in math to know the result. What happens when the UF fans figure out they don't have the big bucks to compete with OSU, not to mention TAM. Bottom line is how many fans will continue to watch college foot ball when maybe half a dozen teams are really in contention and the rest are cannon fodder.

Couple of years ago TAM was making noise about LSU being their rival after the crazy multiple overtime game. Truth be told TAM at one time may have had a rivalry game with UT but it has been so long since they have played that I am not sure that is still a rivalry. The thing about a rivalry game is it has to have some meaning for not only both schools but to some extent national interest as well. Multiple times in my lifetime FSU v UF or FSU v Miami determined the national championship. Bama and Auburn have a similar history; same for Bama and LSU. I can't remember any TAM game that made a real difference to anyone except TAM. This is the real problem for TAM they have not had any relevance in anyone's lifetime. Until they do something meaningful they will not have a rival no matter what the talking heads on TV or TAM fanboys say.