Florida football: 3 matchups that will define Florida-Arkansas
Fresh off an emotional win over Georgia, the Florida Gators will look to keep their path to the College Football Playoff on the straight and narrow Saturday night when upstart Arkansas visits The Swamp (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). The game also marks the return of former Gator and now Arkansas quarterback Feleipe Franks to The Swamp, where he left behind a legacy as a foundational piece of Dan Mullen’s program turnaround. For both Franks and his former teammates, it will be bittersweet but fun to compete against each other.
Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman, the leader in the clubhouse for SEC Coach of the Year, will miss the game after contracting COVID-19. Bringing the game full circle, defensive coordinator Barry Odom will be the Razorbacks’ head coach in Pittman’s absence. The last time Odom was a head coach in The Swamp was 2 years ago, when he took Missouri to Gainesville and clobbered Franks and the Gators 38-17. That was Florida’s last loss at home, as the Gators carry an SEC-best 10-game home winning streak into Saturday night’s matchup.
As you’ll see below, this game is rich with storylines, a truly fascinating cross-divisional matchup that ultimately is an unexpected gift from the extended conference-only COVID-19 schedule.
It’s also a dangerous game for the Gators, and not just because Florida’s coming off a huge win over rival Georgia. The Hogs match up well with Florida strength on strength, and the Gators will need to play very well to win.
Here are 3 matchups that will define Saturday night’s game.
Kyle Trask vs. Grant Morgan
Talk about a matchup made in unlikely college football hero heaven.
Trask is the former 2-star recruit and afterthought who burst out of obscurity a season ago and has become a bona fide Heisman candidate as a senior. Forever a backup to Franks, Trask is now the heartbeat of a Florida program that controls its destiny in the SEC East. His mind, and his ability to consistently make the right check and read given down, distance and personnel, is the biggest reason this offense ranks 3rd nationally in success rate and yards per play, 5th in S&P+ offensive efficiency and 4th in yards per pass attempt.
On the other side of the field, there’s Razorbacks linebacker and tackling machine Morgan, who has made the long journey from walk-on special teams player in 2017 to anchor one of the nation’s most opportunistic defenses in 2020. Morgan “makes all of our on-field calls,” according to Odom, and he will have to go personnel grouping for personnel grouping with Florida’s Trask on Saturday night.
Morgan isn’t just a walking brain on the football field, though he certainly is that. He’s also the Hogs’ leading tackler (70), and he’s tied for the team lead in passes defended (4). Morgan has done it playing through a bulky, irritable elbow injury, and he has keyed a defensive revival that has seen the Hogs shut down an explosive Ole Miss offense in a 33-21 win earlier this season. In that game, Morgan checked to a zone coverage before making this play:
ANOTHER PICK SIX!@RazorbackFB's Grant Morgan to the HOUSE. pic.twitter.com/hgqaADeZT9
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 17, 2020
Morgan’s experience — he has played more than 500 snaps a season for 3 different defensive coordinators — has been invaluable to the Hogs in 2020. Having guys like Morgan and fellow veteran Bumper Pool has allowed Odom to simplify things for the younger core of the Arkansas defense, including safety Jalen Catalon, who is putting together a redshirt freshman season for the ages, and another walk-on, Hudson Clark, whose 3 interceptions against Ole Miss put his name immediately in Sharpie in Razorbacks lore.
Morgan doesn’t have bad games. He’s too consistent. But he has to be splendid for Arkansas to have a chance Saturday night. The Razorbacks defense has given up its fair share of yards, but it has made “bend but don’t break” a specialty, and it ranks in the top 40 in college football in third-down defense (41.2 percent) and yards allowed per play (5.0) as a result. The Hogs also rank 9th in red-zone defense nationally (minimum 3 games) and 15th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.0), giving them just the type of stat profile you’d want if you faced Trask and Florida.
The Gators are going to score some points. But if Morgan and Arkansas can force a couple of poor Trask choices — which they have done better than anyone in America this season with 12 interceptions — this game could very well be interesting, because …
Franks and Arkansas can test the Gators downfield
The thing that sticks out about Franks as a senior in a new offense is the accuracy. Yes, he was on pace to be about 70 percent accurate at Florida a season ago before an injury ended his Gators career. But these numbers are now through 6 games and are conference-only, and they show a 10 percent improvement over his final full season at Florida, where he was good enough to win 10 games and a Peach Bowl MVP award.
Franks isn’t doing it with dink and dunk, either. He has been one of the top 3 SEC quarterbacks in intermediate passing and downfield passing this season, per SEC StatCat.
Feleipe Franks' pass chart Weeks 1-7
68.3% Accuracy
82% Adj Comp
62.1% Depth Adjusted Accuracy
50.3% Success Rate
9.84% Explosive Pass Rate
4.92% Interceptable Pass Rate
36% Screen+RPO Throw Rate
14.2% Uncatchable Pass Rate
6.84 ADOThttps://t.co/Tej5FI7M4o pic.twitter.com/vRXFGaWsrm— SEC StatCat (@SEC_StatCat) November 11, 2020
He can also punish you if your safeties fail, as Tennessee’s did here:
https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1325274163649650688?s=20
Franks didn’t hit deep balls like that often early in his career, even if everyone remembers that throw against Tennessee. It’s consistency and accuracy that are the hallmark of Franks as a senior.
This week, Mullen said that’s about being coachable.
“When I think of Feleipe, I think of coachability. Of mental and physical toughness,” Mullen said. “There comes a lot in that, believing you can win and expecting to win. They could have a better record than they have. They fell down behind last week, and they fought and climbed back in. There’s a lot to be said for that. Toughness doesn’t show on the stat line, but he has it.”
Franks also has a favorable matchup against Florida safeties, who have been downright scary in the deep pass game this season. The Gators rank 11th of 14 SEC teams in explosive pass plays allowed, a big reason Florida ranks outside the top 50 nationally in yards allowed per play and yards allowed per pass attempt.
If Franks can isolate his best target, Treylon Burks, a couple of times Saturday night, the Hogs could get cheap scores. That would be a big deal for an Arkansas team that ranks only 75th nationally in yards per play and 67th in success rate. The Razorbacks struggle to sustain long drives, but if Franks can best Florida’s safeties by hitting chunk plays, all bets are off.
Florida’s improved front 7 vs. a shaky Arkansas OL
Pittman is one of the best offensive line coaches in the country, and when he arrived in Fayetteville, the offensive line was one of the few things that on paper seemed like it might be a strength. The Hogs returned 6 offensive linemen with starting experience when camp opened and added Notre Dame transfer Luke Jones as a depth piece.
The unit has had its moments, but one area it has truly struggled in is pass protection. The Hogs rank 101st in the country and dead last in the SEC in sack percentage allowed, giving up a sack on 9.18 percent of passing downs. That’s not on Franks, who has a quick trigger release and is plenty mobile enough to avoid pressure. That’s just simply losing 1-on-1 battles. How much of it relates to Kendal Briles’ scheme being a poor fit for Arkansas’ personnel is a fair question, but the bottom line is that this is a weakness Florida can exploit.
How do we know? Arkansas doesn’t even have an “if we protect well, we win” trendline. The Hogs have surrendered double-digit pressures in every game this season. They have surrendered at least 2 sacks in every game, and at least 3 sacks in every game but one. In other words, Franks spends too much time running for his life, a big reason the Razorbacks are so big-play reliant on offense and struggle to sustain drives.
Florida isn’t great at getting to the quarterback, ranking just 54th nationally in sack percentage, a far cry from the group that led the country in that category a season ago. But the Gators line has looked much improved since Kyree Campbell returned against Missouri, and it should be able to create pressure on Franks and force him into some uncomfortable down-and-distance situations.
By all accounts this is feeling like a trap game. Gators coming off an emotional win last week, and the early season stigma that Arky was not going to be that good, but they are a really competitive team (despite the record). Also, Franks has the arm talent to burn our very weak safety play. Gators better come to play.
You said everything there whip
Sometimes the well coached, focused and much better team takes lesser opponents seriously and chalk holds.
We could certainly use better safety play though.
What the article mentioned about Franks and the Razorbacks stretching the field is what I have been stressing about all week. Someone should really go back and count the number of wide-open deep shots opponents have missed on against the Gator this season because it’s a lot. Franks has what it takes to take advantage of that. If Pitts is out, that is also concerning, because we were not nearly as efficient on offense with him out. The last thing is that it’s the game after Georgia, and we always have a letdown game after Georgia. I mean every year it seems like the game we are the most certain to come out flat in is against whoever we play the week after Georgia.
Gators*
I’m not sure you can really say they’re not nearly as efficient with Pitts out. They scored 23 of their 44 pts against UGA with him out, and Mullen admitted they got really conservative in the second half with a pretty good lead. It’s kind’ve hard to take that small sample and come to a certain conclusion. Of course they’re much better with him in the lineup, but there’s still plenty of weapons to be extremely efficient.
This will be a battle. You can’t just up and expect to win like UGA did.
I expect our players and coaches will be on high alert this week. We’d better be ready to play our best because the Hogs really want to win this one – and they have the talent and the toughness to do so.
Hey….FL will win this game, not because Coach Pittman isn’t there-but simply because FL is a well coached team, which is deeper than ARK & has way more skill players. It is my hope that Ark doesn’t get embarrassed & plays a competitive game, I hope FFranks plays good enough to get a pat on the back from his former team mates….we are NOT as good as FL yet, but we will get there…sooner than later. WPS!
We hear ya Wagdaddy. Sam, Barry & Co. have done a hell of a job with the Hogs. I certainly wouldn’t underestimate them.
I hope Feleipe gets an ovation from our fans – he deserves it. I’m sure our players think highly of him as well.
This is how I feel about the game as well. I don’t see it being all that close in the end but I do expect FF to score and keep it competitive for a while. UF will miss Pitts but has many more skill players and showed against UGA that we do not depend on Pitts for points.
Yes indeed…3 points in the second half with no Pitts…riveting
You do know the score was tied at 21 late in the second when Pitts went down right? Scored more points without him if my math serves me right.
It wasn’t until the second half that it was known he would not be returning and we made our adjustments. 3 points…with our 3rd line dee
So you guys didn’t realize he was not on the field until the second half? That’s pretty embarrassing lol. Must explain why our backup TE caught a wide open TD right after he left. The UGA defense was covering Pitts on the sideline!
I think the 6 (not 3) points in the second half is probably more of a result of Mullen sitting on a big lead than it is not having Pitts. Seems more plausible that UF rested on a 3 score lead going into the half than it does Kirby sat on a 10 point lead in 2019
9/29 + 3 picks with 2 Quarterbacks and wide open Receivers…..Revolting
Thanks for running the ball in the 2nd half and taking all that time off the clock for us.
As much as I was looking forward to the JT Daniels era, just glad the Dawgs are off this week so they have to sit in their own mess for little while longer and reflect on missed opportunities.
Looks like the Dawgs will be playing in December after all….against Mizzou while the Gators are in Atlanta.
You’re right, 6 points after we no longer had to scheme for Pitts, I forgot about that second perfect strike from Mathis to Burney that resulted in that second FG…wasn’t the first FG after another perfect strike from Mathis to a wide open Davis for negative 37 yards? Mullet quit throwing it around in the second half as much because Trask thru a couple of wounded ducks right to our db’s, but much like our TEs they dropped them too…
You are correctomundo G8rNorcross…pathetically revolting but as far as sitting in our own mess I’m pretty sure most Dawg fans and players have gotten over it, heck man, our 3rd and 4th string players fought till the final horn, never gave up and never quit. As a fan of the game I can live with that…
Only one of the three attempted field goals in the second half was after a turnover. We also had a turnover on downs after marching from our 26 to your 28. A questionable call on 4th and 4 but Mullen was trying to finish the game. Why didn’t your vaunted defense catch those wounded ducks if Trask threw it to them? Btw he was 17 of 25 (68%) for about 250 yards and two tds, targeting 7 different receivers after Pitts left. You can try to discredit Trask by saying the offense depends on Pitts but you sure don’t have a lot of evidence.
Hate that Pitt-boss is not going to be on the sidelines for this one. FL was impressive in their win over GA. Hogs are going to have to play error free and stay out of third and long. WPS! (Happy Vet Day to all of my fellow vets!)
Happy Veterans Day to you and all our vets for making this the best country in the world – and keeping it that way. Thank you for your service, USAF-Hog.
Happy Veterans Day fellow airman vet.
Florida will be flat after an emotional win. Hogs want to win for their quarterback and for Pittman.
Arkansas 38
Florida 37
Overtime
And then….bootheelhog woke up. Yes, it was all a dream. The good news, it will be more competitive than when Greg Spankey announced your added opponents in an effort to treat you like the red headed step child. Could it backfire on Spankey? Why not..its the stuff that dreams are made of.
I don’t think this is a they came out flat game. I think Arky has the pieces to attack some weaknesses and wont drop a pick in their hands. Itllbe closer than the 17 but Florida wins
Only Negan would say something like that.
Being a Bamer I don’t have a dog in this fight but I would like to as an observation. I watched Arky beat Auburn everywhere except in the referees scorebook. I watched Florida strip Kirby & Co. of their manhood. To those who believe it should be an easy victory, forget it. The Razorback defense is for real and the Gator O can score, score, score. May the best team win (looking at you, refs).
I believe Florida wins this but could see Arkansas pull off the win if Florida isn’t careful
I would really love a Hog win in the Swamp as its the only venue in the SEC where Arkansas has yet to win, but I just don’t feel it. The spread is 17.5 for FL but Arky covers. FL 34 Ark. 24.
Yeah, but for Florida, the best case scenario would be
Gators 42, Razorbacks 14.
While the best case scenario for the Razorbacks would be
Gators 24, Razorbacks 27.
1. Coral threw that into triple coverage, just terrible.
2. Not having Pitts would be huge.
3. Hope Florida safeties have been practicing their butts off this week.
4. Have a feeling the Gator RBs will get a workout in this one.
Florida 30 Arkansas 20
Thats about what I think it will be 10-14 point game, 30s to 20s.
In his third point he’s wrong he’s not watching any games. Several of the sacks have been Felipe holding the ball too long. Multiple times this year I’ve said tick tock got to get rid of it right before a sack. But he’s not forcing it to get picked so I’ll take the sack ending the drive over the pick ending it.
Yep, I thought the same exact thing. Oline play certainly needs to improve, but it’s not the entire reason for the number of sacks. The oline needs to improve in run blocking more than pass pro, but improvement needed all around. Fortunately, the trade-off of sacks for picks and potential pick-six’s has been a good one, though I would love a few of those balls just chucked away into the 3rd row of the stands.
Analytics say I am not wrong and I’ve watched every Arkansas game. They are last in the Power 5 in pressures allowed on passing downs. “Shaky” was being nice.
I’m just hoping for a competitive game for 3 quarters, preferably with another points cover, and no sign of quit through the very end, whatever the score may be. I could see the game staying relatively close, if the Hogs D can force and take advantage of a couple mistakes, a very tall task with Trask. I could also see Arkansas getting blown out despite a nearly mistake-free game, even if Pitts doesn’t play – so many dynamic weapons. I do expect Franks to get a solid cheer, perhaps even a standing O, of support from Gator nation, and I hope he does very well in his return to the Swamp.
We walked into Fayetville 4 years ago as the absolute favorites. One thing I am glad for is that we get the Gainesville matchup between these two out of the way, so that next time we play it will be in Fayetteville. It is the most fun place I have been to for an away game. People are great, bars and restaurants are great. Did not love the topography. My cracker ass was tired of all those steps. Good luck to the Hogs.
Florida 31
Ark 17.
Tied at Halftime