Alabama opened as a 17-point favorite against Florida in Saturday’s SEC Championship Game. Somewhat surprisingly, the game’s over/under is not also set at 17. It’s currently listed at 40.

To put it mildly, the UF offense is struggling to score points. The Gators needed overtime to score 20 points against 3-9 FAU (No. 75 in total defense), and the only points they got against Florida State was a safety in a 27-2 loss.

The Crimson Tide have the No. 2 total defense in the FBS and a Heisman candidate in RB Derrick Henry (295 carries, 1,797 yards, 22 TD). Despite the odds being stacked against them, there are a few ways the Gators could pull off the unthinkable upset.

Here’s 10 ideas to ponder:

  1. Treon Harris can be used as a runner: Harris, a dual-threat quarterback, has been limited as a runner since taking over the starting quarterback job. Many coaches, including Florida’s Jim McElwain, follow the line of thinking that if a quarterback runs, he’s more vulnerable to taking hard hits and getting hurt. With the SEC Championship Game being Florida’s last game until a New Year’s bowl, McElwain can take the chance of Harris running.
  2. Florida made Tennessee RB Jalen Hurd work for it: In terms of size, Hurd (6-foot-4, 240 pounds) is the closest Florida has come to facing Henry (6-foot-3, 242 pounds). Hurd was a challenge to bring down, but overall the Gators made him work for his 102 yards on 28 carries. If Florida can hold Henry to similar numbers, it could keep the game low-scoring.
  3. The UF defense is full of ballhawks: The easiest way for the Gators to stay in the game is by forcing turnovers. Cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor have four interceptions each, with Tabor returning two for touchdowns. Trying to “force” Alabama QB Jacob Coker to throw (Coker threw 26 passes while Henry ran 46 times last week) will likely be the key to UF’s defensive strategy.
  4. The Auburn defense forced Alabama to kick five field goals: If the Gators can keep Alabama out of the end zone, they’ll be able to hang around and build confidence.
  5. The pressure is off for the Gators: UF’s playoff hopes ended with the loss to FSU. The Gators are currently 17-point underdogs and won’t be given a chance to win by anyone in the national media. Florida can take a “let’s have fun” approach to the game while Alabama knows its season is on the line.
  6. Points don’t have to come from sustained drives: After a miserable 27-2 loss, no one would blame offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier if he started calling for Harris to throw it deep every passing down. Harris’ deep passes to the speedy WR Antonio Callaway have been one of the only bright spots for the UF offense. At worst, a deep interception is about the same as a punt – Florida’s most exciting play as of late. One or two touchdown bombs to Callaway and a strong defensive effort could keep the game close.
  7. McElwain and Nussmeier can go off script: If the Florida offensive coaches have any plays or packages that haven’t been used yet, now is probably the time to give them a try as Alabama can only prepare for what’s on the game tape. With nothing to lose, Florida can bust out every trick play or exotic package it can draw up. It’s not like the UF offense could get any less potent.
  8. Alabama assistants are targets of job openings: In one of the wildest coaching carousels of recent memory, many UA assistant coaches are being linked to head coaching vacancies, including defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and offensive line coach Mario Cristobal. These coaches might even be talking to other assistants about potentially tagging along. If the coaches are entertaining job offers, how focused will their players be?
  9. The Crimson Tide will be challenged to take Florida seriously: Coach Nick Saban’s players can say all the right things about respecting Florida and focusing on the task at hand. It’s one thing to talk the talk, but will it reflect how they play on Saturday? Alabama’s football team is made up of college students who will be told by friends and classmates all week that the Gators can’t score any points and pose no threat to the Tide.
  10. It wouldn’t be the first time: In 2001, when Saban was at LSU, the No. 21 Tigers topped No. 2 Tennessee 31-20 in the Georgia Dome. In other words, anything can happen.