Georgia football: 5 reasons Bulldogs make it 4 straight over Florida in the Cocktail Party
Georgia vs. Florida. Florida vs. Georgia.
Which team comes first? That probably depends on whether you ask a Bulldogs or a Gators fans. (For what it’s worth, the official logo for the game lists Georgia first.)
On the field, things have tilted toward the Dawgs, as they’ve won the past 3 meetings. This year, though, I think there’s more confidence in the Florida camp than there has been in recent years that they can turn the tables.
As for Vegas, it has Georgia favored by about a field goal.
Can they make it 4 straight against their rival? Here are 5 reasons why I think the Bulldogs will get the better of the Gators again, keeping themselves in the driver’s seat in the division while maintaining their College Football Playoff hopes:
1. Stetson Bennett plays within himself and doesn’t try to force things
I doubt Bennett reads this. If he does, I have one bit of advice for him: Be yourself. You’re not Kyle Trask or Mac Jones.
I, personally, feel that Bennett still has a lot to prove, and barring a dazzling performance against the Gators, he’ll still have a lot to prove. He can’t let his willingness to make a mark and show people that they’ve been wrong force him into foolish mistakes on the field. Overall, he has to find a way to get the ball to his playmakers.
Bennett understands the importance of this game, and as a result, I feel he’ll come out poised, relaxed, confident and ready to attack.
2. They’ll keep a good offense off the field, and make the most of their opportunities
Forty-nine-point-2 percent. That’s the percentage of 3rd downs Florida’s opponents have converted. If teams are converting nearly 50 percent of their 3rd downs against you, that’s a problem. (Georgia is at 35.6 percent, for reference.)
So the longer you can keep Trask and guys like Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney off the field, the better. If you’re not turning those longer possessions into points, well, it’s not much use if the other team’s able to march down the field and cash in on their own chances.
Georgia has averaged 15.4 points in the 1st half this year, while Florida has averaged 23.2, the 9th-best mark in FBS. If the Dawgs can rectify that, they’ll be in good shape.
3. They’ll make headway against an okay, but far from great, run defense
Florida did very well against the run in Saturday’s win over Missouri, allowing just 40 yards on 23 carries. That was 3 weeks after they yielded 205 ground yards to Texas A&M as the Aggies ran it 38 times.
I have confidence that the Dawgs will be able to run the ball effectively, as they did against Kentucky. This part of the Gators defense is certainly an area they’ll be able to exploit. With the offensive line showing pretty well thus far under Matt Luke, and with good depth behind Zamir White in James Cook, Kendall Milton and (if healthy) Kenny McIntosh, it’s possible.
4. They’ll keep generating takeaways
One area where the Dawgs defense has improved over last year? Takeaways. It has forced at least 1 turnover in all 5 games — including 2 contests with 3 takeaways — while totaling 9 for the season.
The breakdown is 6 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries through 5 games. It had 16 across 14 games last season, and only 1 game with 3 takeaways: the Sugar Bowl against Baylor.
Here are a couple of caveats, though: Trask has thrown only 2 picks all year, and the Georgia defense will be banged up, the absence of Richard LeCounte being just one of its concerns. But it’s clear that generating takeaways has been a focus for this group, and I think it’ll be able to add to that total on Saturday.
5. Kirby Smart has just had Dan Mullen’s number over the years
I talked on Monday about Mullen never having won that game, the one that would really push his program over the top. Matt Hayes discussed it, too.
Needless to say, Smart has flipped the script in this series. He lost in 2016, but that was before he truly began to put his imprint on the team in the recruiting ranks. Since then, the Dawgs have had the edge.
And it seems that Smart has just had Mullen’s number overall. His only blemish came in 2008 as the Tide’s defensive backs coach in the SEC Championship Game, where Mullen, the Gators’ offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, had a guy named Tim Tebow on the sideline. After that, Smart was 7-0 against Mullen-led Mississippi State between 2009-15 as Alabama’s defensive coordinator before leaving for Georgia, where he has beaten Mullen all 3 times they have gone against each other as head coaches.
Overall, Florida has better weapons than Georgia. But I think when taking both sides of the ball into account, Georgia has the edge, and I think Smart will get the better of Mullen again.
Kiby Smart needs to smile more…he’s young & got his entire coaching career in front of him. Only one loss so far this year…he’d doing fine.
We’ve lost 3 in a row against UGA, but UGA has lost to Bama (the gatekeeper of the SEC) quite a few more times when it mattered and they haven’t won a Natty in 40 years (talk about a hurdle). So, this is a must win game for UGA if they want to have a chance to get into the SEC title game vs Bama and then into the POs. If you think Kirby and UGA have no pressure to beat UF and that it’s all on Dan and the Gators, you’d be wrong.
I’m really excited to get this game kicked off. Go Gators!
@mudragon………….Ill bet you are. Down 9 important starters and a Midget at QB! You obviously think your going to win. If you lose you’ll be cursing Dan Mullen and Grantham!!!!!
King Negan
What 9 starters?
he doesnt know what hes talking about. But it is Negan what do you expect
Already starting with the excuses. Not to long ago, you were singing Bennett’s praises and declaring victory over Alabama in Atlanta. Now that you’ve seen the offensive ineptitude you’ve started changing your tone. No one feels sorry for Georgia for missing some starters. Would you like me to go over the list of starters Bama has lost the last few seasons? No one gave Bama any slack. All I ever here is how Kirby is the best recruiter in the country and how deep and talented you guys are. Well, now isn’t time for excuses. It’s time for that deep, talented roster to step up. No excuses.
All I ever hear*
I really hate the lack of edit button. And also autocorrect.
You do realize you are talking to a florida fan right? No one but the disney dawgs are doing anything but keeping their mouth shut and having low expectationw.
Negan is now a Florida fan?
If im not mistaken Florida fans were crying about Scheduling Bama this year because yall play them next year.
UGA 38 Florida 21. GO Dawgs!!! SIC EM!!!
@Negan, injuries are a part of the game. I always hear about how much better Georgia is on talent. If what Georgia fans say is correct, you should be fine with your “depth”. No excuses for either side when it comes down to it. Hoping for a good game!
Apologies for the wrong reply, Aubrey
Not sure what games you’re watching but I would be shocked if the UGA offense scored 38, would have to have a defensive or special teams score to possibly get close to that. Also if UGA scores that much Florida won’t be held to 21.
U say that like it matters. U should be focused on fla. Not Alabama.
Flusey
With the current state of the QB position at UGA this season, I’m not sure it matters a whole lot if UGA makes it to the SECC. Stetson is not going to beat Saban and that defense.
good news is your QB this cycle looks legit. As long as he doesnt transfer you guys should be good
I agree. Between him, Daniels, and the true freshman, I think we’ll find a good QB. I hope.
im sure you guys will figure it out
It won’t
I sure hope all this is correct. And if the team was healthy I would agree. But their not. So I can only hope! I’m confident in saying. UGA IS BY FAR THE BETTER TEAM WHEN HEALTHY. BUT 9 STARTERS COULD CRIPPLE ANYONE!!!!
PS. Take 9 starters off Alabama and let them play Florida. See what happens. If UGA can overcome this, they deserve to be ranked above Alabama!
King Negan
Tell me the name of the “9 important starters” that won’t play against UF. If they play and UF wins, we all expect the excuses to go away. When UF fans complained about a couple defensive backs being out a couple years ago, you constantly yapped about the great depth UGa had that would prevent those type issues. Now you’re making excuses before kickoff.
Negan is just working up his excuse…
That Negan…he’s just being himself…always weird & surprisingly less-wordy on this topic. Maybe the word “LOSS” is bothering him ?
Last I heard, UGA has 15 total injuries across its 2-deep, but I’ve not heard that 9 starters will be out for the game.
By this time of the season, especially with this covid crap, it would be shocking if there wasn’t 15 players listed as questionable or out
LeCounte, Rochester and Blaylock are the only expected pre-season starters who are definitely out.
Pickens is questionable. Rice and Cine are probable.
Davis is questionable too. He’s a big loss if he can’t go.
Georgia:
–LeCounte
–Davis
–Rochester
–Pickens (who knows)
–Cine (probable)
–Rice (probable)
Florida:
–Carter (first half suspension)
–McPherson (unknown)
–Wilson (unknown)
–Davis (unknown)
–Stiner (unknown)
Alabama has nothing to do with this conversation king neanderthal. Our philosophy is next man up. Y’all do your thing and we’ll continue to do ours
Dcope…True…It is next-man-up period. Play the game.
Take 9 starter off Alabama and Bennett still can’t see over the LOS…
Why are you even here? You won. Move on. Why do bama fans follow these posts like retired people with no hobbies?
I replied to a poster that mentioned Bama… Why are you replying to me? Did your feelings get hurt?
Nobody cares….
The Smart record vs. Mullen while at Bama is very misleading. We are talking Bama vs. Miss St here. What was Bama’s record all time during the Smart years? I’m all for comparing the HC vs. HC record.
I think UF’s offense is good and explosive enough to move the ball and score some points like Bama did. I am not so sure that they will be able to take care of the ball as well as Bama did and therefor could be their downfall. Mac made some passes that UGA could have intercepted but the receivers were too good and fought back to the ball for completions.
UGA’s defense is ball hawking. If UF turns the ball over 2 or more times, this game is over. They can probably get away with 1 turnover but any more than that and it’ll be tough to overcome.
Whoever wins the turnover battle has a strong chance at winning the game. Also, I agree with the rest of your analysis.
U don’t say…
Spot on analysis!
Agree with this. If UF doesn’t turn the ball over, I think they win handily. Turn it over once or twice and UGA will run it down your throat and eat up all that clock.
Well said, will be interesting to see how Pitts is used and what he does. UF’s explosive is different than Bama’s and I wonder how that changes the dynamic of the drives in this game v the Bama game.
My model says 29-25 UGA. My mind says 31-21 UF, my heart wants my model to be correct.
Your model?
Yes I’ve created my own model akin to SP+ which measures more or less strength of victory/results based on the quality of the offenses/defenses each has faced for all 130 FBS teams.
LSU has been doing their best to mess with the results. It’s less predictive and more a measure of “team quality” to an extent. Obviously as it’s only statistically driven it has its shortcomings but does put some games/wins in a better context.
Your model probably doesn’t take into account that Kyrie Campbell, the cornerstone of Florida’s defense, didn’t play this year until the Missouri game.
Of course, a simple understanding of data and statistics would say interpretation is important. That’s why I have a “model” prediction and my brain prediction. I would be pleasantly surprised if UGA keeps it within a score.
LMAO
TigerCPA has risen from the grave…..
Don’t listen to your model, she’s just hired for being skinny and looking good
LOL
That’s pretty good lol.
(For what it’s worth, the official logo for the game lists Georgia first.)
@Sydney – That logo I believe is updated every year based on the “home” team. Could be wrong on that though. Also, the URL is flgajax so they have FL first on the more permanent thing there, just saying.
Personally, I like Neil’s suggestion that it should be whoever won the previous year gets to be first, so GA would be first right now.
O I was wrong, UGA is the home team. Lol that site is purposely not taking a side by having the logo and URL opposite haha
What a crock of an article, the only valid point is #4 and that’s true for both teams.
Seems like Corch wrote #5 since that narrative is meaningless.
# 2 & 3 fail to consider that UF has turned the corner on defense and are better than what they showed in the first 3 games both in 3rd down and against the run.
But #1 is my favorite and I hope Stetson does read this. Be your short self and keep having passes either batted down or intercepted. Great advice
UF gave up 17 points to a team that scored 12 on Tennessee.
If you’re talking about Missouri, the starting defense only gave up three points.
There was a Pick Six and Missouri’s only offensive TD was scored in garbage time against true freshmen and walk-ons.
Florida has turned the corner on defense? After one game? Against Mizzou? C’mon man. Florida has played 4 games. The defense played like crap in 3 out of 4 games. That tells me Mizzou is the exception, not the rule. Florida had rest and coaches had extra time to game plan for a redshirt freshman QB. So doing it once doesn’t prove a turn around. Do it consistently the next couple of games and then maybe we can talk turn around.
Still have Florida winning 30-27. If Georgia scores more than 30 though, Florida will not win. Just my take. And I’m usually wrong. Peace.
Losing LeCounte is gonna hurt the most…..since he is ball hawk and Florida loves to throw.
agreed and i think he was your best chance to not have to double pitts
I think losing Davis hurts more. He’s key to the style of defense we play.
U should stick to flyfishing
You should stick to actually not caring about uga cause this pretending thing aint working for you.
Y’all need to go back and read QUEEN NEGAN’s comments all off season. It is truly a case of a moron. Now he is tucking his tail and already making excuses for the “just in case moment”. I can tell that he is a true GAWGA fan cause just like Kirby, he can’t hold his mud when the S^%$ is about to hit the fan. GO GATORS!!!!
It’s funny how people forget that this has been a series of 3 game winning steaks for years now. People have been acting like Florida is Kentucky trying to end their steak against Florida in 2018. Although last year, Florida has plenty of mental errors, I don’t think there’s ever been a mental roadblock for any team trying to end the steak. The best team USUALLY wins in this game.
I see KINGCRYBABY’S whining again. Your in need of some serious psychological help.
Everyone here is forgetting the X-factor. Georgia’s defense is banged up and their offense has been struggling. Florida’s offense has been flying high and their defense is starting to show life. Obviously, Florida should be beat Georgia handily.
But then you’ve got the 2020 X-factor that says conventional wisdom is always wrong. So, since Florida SHOULD beat the mess out of Georgia, it’s only natural to assume that Georgia is gonna blow Florida out with an all-time points record against Florida in the series because it’s the least likely thing to happen.
Thoughts? Lol
Didn’t mean to post this on another’s comment
I think the mid to low tier SEC teams have been inconsistent and have been a difficult read this season.
However, I think the upper echelon (aka the top 4 SEC teams) has been pretty standard. I think go with conventional wisdom on this one.
I think if your reasoning is correct and Dan Mullen loses to UGA, then you have question whether Mullen is the right guy for the job. He was hired to win the SEC – can’t do that if you lose to UGA every year even when they are down.
What was Kirby hired to do? Lose to the west?
BubbaTurd,
Kirby was hired to win championships which he notably did beating the SEC West champion in 2017 and winning the SEC Title. You have small man’s syndrome when it comes to Georgia.
So Kirby was hired to be Richt?
I’m pretty sure Kirby was hired to win more than a conference championship…
But like you point out about Mullen… He can’t do that losing to the west every year….
You could take your OP and apply to Kirby.
It simply comes down to the fact that Florida has a quarterback and Georgia doesn’t.
Who knows who’ll win this game. I’m honestly thinking Florida by 7. But in retrospect.. who is your favorite Dawg. I got 2. 1. Lewis Grizzard and 2. Paul Holmes of Monticello, Ga.
Joe Cox.
With? Have a hard time believing 1 % of these ga. Clowns step on campus but for georgia games. Came up with my own model??? Boxface thinks whoever wins the turnover game may win it? What a bunch of fools. Who wouldn’t think that u total idiot!
I always enjoy a good SEC E varsity game. No idea who will win, but looking forward to the comments on Monday
I would like to present the case that boxster is awaiting the s.carolina game because he likes fighting cocks. Facts.