Heisman Odds 2021: Alabama’s Bryce Young Holds Slim Lead Over Matt Corral

2021 Heisman Odds, Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young

2021 Heisman Odds, Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Saturday Down South Graphic, USATSI

2021 Heisman Odds are in full swing now that college football is back

The 2021 Heisman odds are now officially … on.

Sure, the relevancy of this sports betting category from the new calendar year’s opening odds to the very end can never be disputed, but kicking off a brand-spanking-new college football season with rabid fans back in the building brings a special feeling both so incredibly unique and tough to describe.

Once Week 1 comes and goes, the race for the Heisman Trophy becomes as real as anything across the sports nation. So much so that both veteran and novice sports bettors take deep dives into this prestigious sports gambling category.

Who will be the kid to take the Heisman from Alabama’s DeVonta Smith, Alabama’s game-breaking weapon that captured it in 2020? Will it go back to a quarterback, perhaps in the form of Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler, Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei or Alabama’s Bryce Young?

Fortunately for the football-hungry fans of the SEC and elsewhere, Saturday Down South has the country covered via 2021 Heisman Trophy odds from an in-depth and expert perspective.

Note: Tennessee online sports betting is now live. Featured odds used on this page courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Heisman Trophy Odds Lists, Movement, News

Let’s take a look at how the Heisman Trophy odds stack up as we head into the summer. Considering the odds change frequently, attacking it in a tody timeline manner is the only sensical way to approach the Heisman Trophy odds.

Heisman Trophy Odds Movement

Oct. 10, 2021: Alabama’s Bryce Young stays out in front

PlayerOdds
Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)+190
Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)+200
CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)+850
Kenneth Walker III (RB, Michigan State)+1600
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)+1700
Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)+2100
Kenny Pickett (QB, Pitt)+3500
Treveyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)+3500
Casey Thompson (QB, Texas)+5500
Brian Robinson Jr (RB, Alabama)+5750
Jayden Daniels (QB, Arizona State)+6250
Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)+7000
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma)+7000
Cade McNamara (QB, Michigan)+7500
JT Daniels (QB, Georgia)+7500
Sam Howell (QB, UNC)+7500
Blake Corum (RB, Michigan)+7750
Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)+10000
Emory Jones (QB, Florida)+10000
Payton Thorne (QB, Michigan State)+10000
Tanner Mordecai (QB, SMU)+10000
Tyler Goodson (RB, Iowa)+10000
John Metchie III (WR, Alabama)+10500
DJ Uiagalelei (QB, Clemson)+11500
Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee)+11500

Despite Alabama’s shocking loss to Texas A&M, quarterback Bryce Young maintains his slim lead in the Heisman Odds at +190. Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral did game some ground (+200), but he still has plenty of work to do moving forward.

Oct. 3, 2021: Alabama’s Bryce Young retakes the lead

PlayerOdds
Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)+123
Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)+215
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)+1600
CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)+1900
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma)+2250
Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)+3250
Treveyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)+3500
Kenneth Walker III (RB, Michigan State)+4000
Kenny Pickett (QB, Pitt)+4500
JT Daniels (QB, Georgia)+5500
Brian Robinson Jr (RB, Alabama)+6750
Sean Clifford (QB, Penn State)+6750
Blake Corum (RB, Michigan)+7000
Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)+7000
Cade McNamara (QB, Michigan)+7500
Jake Haener (QB, Fresno State)+7500
Jayden Daniels (QB, Arizona State)+7500
Sam Howell (QB, UNC)+7750
Casey Thompson (QB, Texas)+8000
Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)+9000
Drake London (WR, USC)+10000
Emory Jones (QB, Florida)+10000
John Metchie III (WR, Alabama)+10000
Tanner Mordecai (QB, SMU)+10000
Tyler Goodson (RB, Iowa)+10000

And just like that, Bryce Young retakes the lead thanks to Alabama’s thumping of Matt Corral’s Ole Miss team this past weekend, 42-21.

Sept. 27, 2021: Matt Corral maintains Heisman lead

PlayerOdds
Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)+150
Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)+238
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)+2050
JT Daniels (QB, Georgia)+2100
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma)+2300
Treveyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)+3000
CJ Verdell (RB, Oregon)+3300
Jake Haener (QB, Fresno State)+4000
CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)+4250
Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)+4250
Anthony Brown (QB, Oregon)+4500
Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)+5000
Tanner Mordecai (QB, SMU)+6000
Kenneth Walker III (RB, Michigan State)+6250
Sam Howell (QB, UNC)+6250
Sean Clifford (QB, Penn State)+7000
Brennan Armstrong (QB, Virginia)+7500
Brian Robinson Jr (RB, Alabama)+8000
Emory Jones (QB, Florida)+8000
Jack Coan (QB, Notre Dame)+8000
DJ Uiagalelei (QB, Clemson)+8750
Casey Thompson (QB, Texas)+9000
Kenny Pickett (QB, Pitt)+9000
Blake Corum (RB, Michigan)+10000
Cade McNamara (QB, Michigan)+10000

Ole Miss junior Matt Corral maintains his lead over Bryce Young after a bye week for the Rebels. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young put up 313 yard and five touchdowns to one interception in his team’s 63-14 thrashing of Southern Miss.

Sept. 19, 2021: Matt Corral moves out in front

PlayerOdds
Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)+175
Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)+300
 CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)+1700
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)+1900
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma)+1950
Sam Howell (QB, UNC)+2250
CJ Verdell (RB, Oregon)+2750
JT Daniels (QB, Georgia)+2750
Treveyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)+3750
Anthony Brown (QB, Oregon)+4500
Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)+4500
DJ Uiagalelei (QB, Clemson)+4500
Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)+4500
Sean Clifford (QB, Penn State)+5000
Brian Robinson Jr (RB, Alabama)+5500
Kenneth Walker III (RB, Michigan State)+5500
Blake Corum (RB, Michigan)+7500
Brennan Armstrong (QB, Virginia)+7500
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB, UCLA)+7750
Emory Jones (QB, Florida)+8000
Jack Coan (QB, Notre Dame)+8000
Jayden Daniels (QB, Arizona State)+9000
Tank Bigsby (RB, Auburn)+9000
Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)+10000
Cade McNamara (QB, Michigan)+10000

Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral is absolutely tearing it up. He’s now the odds-on favorite to take home the 2021 Heisman Trophy.

Sept. 5, 2021: Bryce Young Moves to No. 1

PlayerOdds
Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)+450
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma)+775
C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)+1100
D.J. Uiagalelei (QB, Clemson)+1150
J.T. Daniels (QB, Georgia)+1300
Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)+1350
Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)+2400
Sam Howell (QB, UNC)+2500
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)+3000
Emory Jones (QB, Florida)+3250
Kedon Slovis (QB, USC)+3400
Haynes King (QB, Texas)+3500
Jayden Daniels (QB, Arizona State)+3750
D’Eriq King (QB, Miami)+4000
Brian Robinson Jr (RB, Alabama)+4250
Brock Purdy (QB, Iowa State)+4250
Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)+4500
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB, UCLA)+4500
McKenzie Milton (QB, Florida State)+5000
Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)+6000
Tank Bigsby (RB, Auburn)+6000
Anthony Brown (QB, Oregon)+6250
Hudson Card (QB, Texas)+6500
Jack Coan (QB, Notre Dame)+6500
Malik Cunningham (QB, Louisville)+7750

There’s a new leader in the house, and his fans want him to keep rolling.

Now that Week 1 is in the books, the updated list is out. Alabama’s Bryce Young still leads the way at +450 after his team’s 44-13 thrashing of the ACC’s Miami Hurricanes.

The odds-on Heisman Trophy favorite played splendidly in his first crack at it with the fans back in the building. He finished with 344 yards and four touchdowns (to no interceptions) on an extremely efficient 27 of 38 passing.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler didn’t exactly enjoy himself in the opener. The Sooners barely squeaked past Tulane in Week 1, 40-35 (coupled with its classy pregame gesture), but Rattler threw two picks to just one interception and 304 yards (30 of 39 passing).

While Oklahoma’s young quarterback displayed the skills that made him the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite, the redshirt sophomore must be chomping at the bit to get back on the field.

Sept. 1, 2021: Spencer Rattler Holds Strong

PlayerOdds
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma)+600
DJ Uiagalelei (QB, Clemson)+750
Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)+900
JT Daniels (QB, Georgia)+1200
CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)+1200
Sam Howell (QB, UNC)+1400
Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)+1800
D’Eriq King (QB, Miami)+2000
Kedon Slovis (QB, USC)+2800
Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)+2800
Haynes King (QB, Texas A&M)+3500
Jayden Daniels (QB, Arizona State)+3500
Brock Purdy (QB, Iowa State)+3500
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, Alabama)+3500
Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Indiana)+4000
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)+4000
Hudson Card (QB, Texas)+4000
Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)+4000
Emory Jones (QB, Florida)+4000
Max Johnson (QB, LSU)+5000
Master Teague III (RB, Ohio State)+5000
Tank Bigsby (RB, Auburn)+6000
Bo Nix (QB, Auburn)+6000
Graham Mertz (QB, Wisconsin)+6000
McKenzie Milton (QB, Florida State)+6000
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB, UCLA)+6000
Spencer Sanders (QB, Oklahoma State)+6000
Dillon Gabriel (QB, UCF)+6000
Jase McLellan (RB, Alabama)+6000
John Metchie III (WR, Alabama)+6000
TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)+7500
Marcus Major (RB, Oklahoma)+7500
Anthony Brown (QB-Oregon)+7500

July 6, 2021: The Status-Quo Remains Intact

PlayerOdds
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma)+550
DJ Uiagalelei (QB, Clemson)+600
Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)+800
CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)+1000
JT Daniels (QB, Georgia)+1200
Sam Howell (QB, UNC)+1700
Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)+2000
D’Eriq King (QB, Miami)+2000
Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)+2000
Kedon Slovis (QB, USC)+2500
Emory Jones (QB, Florida)+3300
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)+3300
Jayden Daniels (QB, Arizona State)+4000
Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)+4000
Casey Thompson (QB, Texas)+4000
Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)+4000
Tank Bigsby (RB, Auburn)+5000
Max Borghi (RB, Washington State)+5000
British Brooks (RB, North Carolina)+5000
Malik Cunningham (QB, Louisville)+5000
Dillon Gabriel (QB, UCF)+5000
Hendon Hooker (QB, VA Tech)+5000
Marcus Major (RB, Oklahoma)+5000
Jack Miller III (Ohio State, QB)+5000
Bo Nix (QB, Auburn)+5000
Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Indiana)+5000
Brock Purdy (QB, Iowa State)+5000
Spencer Sanders (QB, OK State)+5000
Isaiah Spiller (RB, Texas A&M)+5000
Master Teague (RB, Ohio State)+5000
Mohamed Ibrahim (RB, Minnesota)+6600
Max Johnson (QB, LSU)+6600
Jase McLellan (RB, Alabama)+6600

May 2021: Spring-Time Heisman Odds

PlayerOdds
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma)+550
DJ Uiagalelei (QB, Clemson)+600
Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)+800
Sam Howell (QB, UNC)+1700
D’Eriq King (QB, Miami)+2000
Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)+2000
JT Daniels (QB, Georgia)+2000
Kedon Slovis (QB, USC)+2500
Jayden Daniels (QB, Arizona State)+3300
CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)+3300
Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)+3300
Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)+4000
Casey Thompson (QB, Texas)+5000
Tank Bigsby (RB, Auburn)+5000
Max Borghi (RB, Washington State)+5000
British Brooks (RB, North Carolina)+5000
Malik Cunningham (QB, Louisville)+5000
Dillon Gabriel (QB, UCF)+5000
Hendon Hooker (QB, VA Tech)+5000
Marcus Major (RB, Oklahoma)+5000
Jack Miller III (Ohio State, QB)+5000
Bo Nix (QB, Auburn)+5000
Brock Purdy (QB, Iowa State)+5000
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)+5000
Spencer Sanders (QB, OK State)+5000

January 2021: Spencer Rattler Opens As Favorite

PlayerOdds
Spencer Rattler+300
Bryce Young+400
D.J. Uiagalelei+650
Sam Howell+800
D’Eriq King+1200
JT Daniels+1800
Jayden Daniels+2000
Kedon Slovis+2000
Jack Miller III+2500
Bijan Robinson+2500
Breece Hall+3300
Jase McClellan+3300
Isaiah Spiller+3300
Tank Bigsby+4000
Master Teague+4000
Max Borghi+5000
British Brooks+5000
Matt Corral+5000
Malik Cunningham+5000
Dillion Gabriel+5000
Hendon Hooker+5000
Mohamed Ibrahim+5000
Max Johnson+5000
Emory Jones+5000
Marcus Major+5000
Kendall Milton+5000
Bo Nix+5000
Desmond Ridder+5000
Spencer Sanders+5000
Tyler Shough+5000
Casey Thompson+5000
Connor Bazelak+8000
Lyn-J Dixon+8000
John Metchie+8000
Harrison Bailey+10000
Carson Beck+10000
Jalen Berger+10000
Slade Bolden+10000
Keyshon Boutte+10000
Leddie Brown+10000
Treylon Burks+10000
Jay Butterfield+10000
Zach Charbonnet+10000
Sean Clifford+10000
James Cook+10000
TJ Finley+10000
Devyn Ford+10000
Jerome Ford+10000
Khalil Herbert+10000
Xavier Hutchinson+10000
KJ Jefferson+10000
Joe Milton+10000
Chris Olave+10000
Michael Penix Jr+10000
George Pickens+10000
Brock Purdy+10000
Will Rogers+10000
CJ Verdell+10000
Zamir White+10000
E.J Williams+10000
Kyren Williams+10000
Roydell Williams+10000
Garrett Wilson+10000
Javon Baker+15000
Thaiu Bell-Jones+15000
Melvin Billingsley+15000
Hudson Card+15000
Steele Chambers+15000
Donald Chaney Jr+15000
Malik Davis+15000
Jarrett Doege+15000
Max Duggan+15000
Jerrion Ealy+15000
Tyler Goodson+15000
Cam’Ron Harris+15000
Xzavier Henderson+15000
Kearis Jackson+15000
Jo’quavious Marks+15000
Adrian Martinez+15000
Luke McCaffrey+15000
Seth McGowan+15000
Cade McNamara+15000
Graham Mertz+15000
Tanner Morgan+15000
Justin Shorter+15000
Drake Stoops+15000
Taulia Tagovailoa+15000
Kayvon Thibodeaux+15000
Dorian Thompson Robinson+15000
Grant Wells+15000
Dee Wiggins+15000
Ronnie Bell+20000
Brendon Clark+20000
Jacob Copeland+20000
Sean Dollars+20000
Traeshon Holden+20000
Spencer Petras+20000
Mycah Pittman+20000
Charleston Rambo+20000
Stevie Scott III+20000
John Rhys Plumlee+25000
Jeremy Ruckert+25000
Noah Sewell+25000
Theo Wease+25000

Heisman Trophy 2021 Preseason Favorites

Spencer Rattler +600 (QB, Oklahoma)

Whether or not you have confidence in Spencer Rattler matters very little to the kid himself. The young Sooner quarterback recently dangled a strong message prior to the 2021 college football season.

https://twitter.com/SpencerRattler/status/1397983430747459586

Rattler, 20, threw for 3,031 yards, 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions over the course of 11 games in 2020—his first as the team’s full-time starting quarterback. The Phoenix, AZ native enters the 2021 season as the odds-on favorite to capture the Heisman Trophy.

DJ Uiagalelei +750 (QB, Clemson)

No Trevor Lawrence, no problem. (Well, at least for the most part.) When stud Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence missed a couple of November games this past season, young DJ Uiagalelei stepped right in and impressed.

Throwing for 914 yards and five touchdowns to no interceptions, Uiagelelei did his part in the two starts he made. Unfortunately, he lost the Notre Dame game in South Bend, IN, but it wasn’t because of the quarterback.

Uiagelelei is currently +750 to win the 2021 Heisman Trophy.

Bryce Young +900 (QB, Alabama)

Bryce Young enjoyed a nice freshman season. The Pasadena, CA native watched Mac Jones help DeVonta Smith capture the Heisman Trophy during another Alabama National Championship year.

With Jones in New England with the Patriots, it’s now Young’s team. The overwhelming consensus is that the kid is more than ready to take over as the on-field leader for Nick Saban. The oddsmakers agree, placing him third in the Heisman Trophy odds list at +900.

Who’s Going to Win the 2021 Heisman Trophy?

The last two Heisman Trophy winners played in the SEC. Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and LSU’s Joe Burrow are those two southeast ballers who took the hardware home.

Never count out the Big 12, however, as the conference’s ability to put up points is undisputed. Similar to the mini-Oklahoma run in 2017 and 2018, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, quarterback Spencer Rattler is currently leading the pack at +600.

2021 Heisman Prediction

It’s tough to pick against Rattler at this moment. Granted, it’s still springtime, so a lot can change, but Rattler has everything set up for an extraordinary statistical 2021 campaign in the free-flowing Big 12.

Prediction: Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler.

How to Bet on the Heisman Trophy

The winner of the Heisman Trophy is consistently one of the top college football futures betting markets. One wonders if John Heisman, the first athletic director of the Downtown Athletic Club in New York City and namesake of the trophy, envisioned the magnitude of today’s Heisman-sports betting market back in 1935. In a betting world, the odds aren’t great on that thought.

In order to bet on the Heisman winner, follow these simple steps:

Where to Bet on the Heisman Trophy

There are plenty of legal online sportsbook options that offer Heisman Trophy betting. Here are some of the top options, along with a huge free bet at Caesars Sportsbook.

DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook offers up to $1,060 of free bets and has a robust offering of college football games and futures markets. Perhaps most importantly, DraftKings Sportsbook is among the best online operators when it comes to offering both in-game live betting options and pregame profit boost specials.

States available: TN, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, VA, WV

Get started today for $1,050 in first-time user bets ($50 risk-free bet and $1000 deposit bonus) to bet on the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner at DraftKings Sportsbook.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK APP



STATES: AZ, TN, PA, NJ, CO, IL, WV, IA, IN, VA, MI

GET THE APP

DEPOSIT BONUS$1050
$50 RISK-FREE BET + $1K DEPOSIT BONUS
BET NOW!

FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel Sportsbook offers a first-rate app experience and an industry-best $1,000 risk-free first bet for new users. Like other top sportsbooks, FanDuel has expansive college football betting options and provides a Heisman market throughout the year.

States available: TN, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, VA, WV

Get started today for a $1,000 risk-free first bet to wager on the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

States: TN, NJ, PA, IN, IA IL, WV, MI, CO, VA, AZ

GET THE APP

SIGNUP BONUS$1,000
RISK-FREE
BET NOW

BetMGM

BetMGM is backed by one of America’s most prestigious gaming brands and offers new players a $500 first deposit match. Like its competition, BetMGM offers a full range of college football games and futures markets, including Heisman odds.

States available: TN, AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, NJ, NV, PA, VA, WV, AZ

Get started today for a $1,000 risk-free bet while gambling on the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner at BetMGM.

BetMGM Sportsbook App

STATES: CO, MS, IN, IA, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, WV, VA, AZ

GET THE APP

SIGNUP BONUS$1,000
RISK-FREE
BET NOW!

Past Heisman Trophy Winners (NCAA College Football History)

Here is a look at the past Heisman Trophy winners, dating back to the 2000 season.

Winners by school:  Oklahoma (4),  Alabama (3), Florida State (2), USC (3), Nebraska (1), Ohio State (1), Florida (1), Baylor. (1), Oregon (1), LSU (1), Auburn (1), Texas A&M (1), Louisville (1)

Winners by position: quarterback (17), running back (3)

PlayerPositionSchool
DeVonta SmithWRAlabama
Joe BurrowQBLSU
Kyler MurrayQBOklahoma
Baker MayfieldQBOklahoma
Lamar JacksonQBLouisville
Derrick HenryRBAlabama
Marcus MariotaQBOregon
Jameis WinstonQBFlorida State
Johnny ManzielQBTexas A&M
Robert Griffin IIIQBBaylor
Cam NewtonQBAuburn
Mark IngramRBAlabama
Sam BradfordQBOklahoma
Tim TebowQBFlorida
Troy SmithQBOhio State
Reggie BushRBUSC (vacated)
Matt LeinartQBUSC
Jason WhiteQBOklahoma
Carson PalmerQBUSC
Eric CrouchQBNebraska
Chris WeinkeQBFlorida State

Heisman Betting History

A look at the recent Heisman Trophy winners, as well as their opening and closing odds.

YearPlayerPositionSchoolOpening OddsClosing Odds
2019Joe BurrowQBLSU+20000-12500
2018Kyler MurrayQBOklahoma+2000+700
2017Baker MayfieldQBOklahoma+700-1800
2016Lamar JacksonQBLouisville+10000-1345
2015Derrick HenryRBAlabama+2500-465
2014Marcus MariotaQBOregon+500-1500

Heisman Betting Strategy

The Heisman Trophy race is often misunderstood by the general betting public. The general public still views Heisman candidates in the same way that political parties view their candidates — through the lens of electability. Or, in the case of the Heisman, viability. Conventional wisdom dictates that you have to be an established player from an established and powerful program to even entertain the notion that you could be enshrined as one of the game’s greats.

The preseason Heisman odds going into the 2019 college football season offer us an important example. Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa entered the 2019 season as co-favorites to hoist the trophy at 3:1 odds. They had just played against each other in the national title game and were the faces of the two most dominant programs in the sport. To casual fans, it was a no-brainer for them to share the spotlight as preseason Heisman favorites. But to savvy veterans of the sports gambling space, the only thing noteworthy about two players separating themselves from the pack over the summer was that it inflated odds for everyone else.

To put it bluntly, the prevailing wisdom surrounding Heisman odds is wrong and that disconnect is born out in the final Heisman voting year after year. Only one preseason Heisman favorite has gone “wire-to-wire” since 2000. All it took from Marcus Mariota (9:2 preseason odds) was a near-flawless season (TD-INT Ratio 42:4) and a berth in the inaugural College Football Playoff. In contrast to Mariota’s favorite-to-recipient feat, is the fact that eight of the past 10 Heisman winners weren’t considered Top 10 candidates in the preseason by oddsmakers. Joe Burrow (40:1), Kyler Murray (30:1), Lamar Jackson (100:1) and Derrick Henry (25:1) represent a new wave of Heisman profitability for sports gamblers. And after a run of one-year wonders who took home the hardware as preseason “FIELD” bets (Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston) in the early 2010s, sportsbooks finally started to post more comprehensive preseason lists. The average offering has essentially doubled from the 20-25 player range in 2010 to a 35-40 range in 2019.

Heisman longshots have proven to be incredibly profitable in the past 10 years, but their odds quickly come down to earth once the general public has seen them play. The Heisman winners over the 2015-2019 seasons saw their preseason odds fall by an average of 68% from the preseason through Week 3.

heisman odds 2015-2019

This illustrates that for a gambler to capture worthwhile value, they often need to have skin in the game before the season starts.

The start of the 2020 season offered a similar situation as our 2019 example. Neither Lawrence nor Tagovailoa were Heisman finalists in 2019, but that didn’t stop oddsmakers from setting up the 2020 preseason Heisman odds in nearly identical fashion. Lawrence was joined by Justin Fields as a co-favorite falling in the 4:1 to 9:2 range. And as we now know, of course, neither Lawrence or Fields are expected to win the trophy.

Hedging Strategies When Betting The Heisman

Hedging is when a gambler places a bet on the opposite side of their original wager in order to reduce losses or to guarantee a profit. Despite the simplicity of the tactic, casual gamblers often fail to consider hedging opportunities. For small-stakes gamblers, in-game hedging might not be worth their time, but that isn’t true of futures betting. Even small wagers can net huge returns and are worthy of thoughtful hedge strategies.

Season-long futures for individual players and teams present a host of hedge opportunities, some clear and others more convoluted. As shown above, pundits and the public are awful at predicting who will end up as a Heisman finalist. In fact, four of the five Heisman presentations between 2015-2019 have included at least 1 finalist who entered the season as a 100:1 longshot or higher. Simply having a finalist with long odds can guarantee you money by properly hedging is a game-changer for most casual bettors.

If you were fortunate enough to place a bet on Joe Burrow before Week 3 of the 2019 season, you had a ticket paying out between 40:1 and 200:1 on the Bayou Bengal. Even if you had waited until the end of the regular season to hedge, the 3 other eventual finalists all presented decent value and insurance with Fields (6:1), Jalen Hurts (17:1), Chase Young (100:1) all offering handsome payouts.

While it appeared that Burrow was a “lock” by Week 13 during the 2019 season, this same hedge strategy would have saved Tagovailoa bettors the year prior. The Crimson Tide signal-caller was listed as a -900 favorite during Week 13 but would be overtaken by Kyler Murray just two weeks later. If you had spread out your risk by betting the likely finalists in Week 13 (Murray+600, Dwayne Haskins+6000, Will Grier+1100) you would have turned a gambling heartbreak into a decent payday.

If you are making preseason Heisman bets, targeting longshots with the potential to become finalists instead of winners is one way that you can turn an all-or-nothing proposition into a less volatile and more profitable long-term strategy. This brings into play running backs, wide receivers and defensive players that you might not have considered at all in previous seasons.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK APP



STATES: AZ, TN, PA, NJ, CO, IL, WV, IA, IN, VA, MI

GET THE APP

DEPOSIT BONUS$1050
$50 RISK-FREE BET + $1K DEPOSIT BONUS
BET NOW!