The NBA Draft lottery is tonight, and it’s a monumental evening for the Orlando Magic. For a team that has been through multiple iterations of rebuilding mode for much of the last decade, tonight represents a chance to get a franchise-changing star player. The problem is that the, like in year’s past, the team is at the mercy of the ping pong balls and the odds of the NBA Draft lottery system.

The Orlando Magic finished the season with the third worst record in the league which put the franchise in the top tier of lottery odds for tonight. The worst three teams get the same odds at grabbing the coveted no. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. Those odds are 14%. The Rockets, Pistons and Magic all have an equal 14% opportunity to get the top pick in the draft. Furthermore, these three teams also have 52% chance to get a top four pick in the draft.

Here are the odds for tonight’s NBA Draft lottery:

  1. Houston: 14%
  2. Detroit: 14%
  3. Orlando: 14%
  4. OKC: 11.5%
  5. Cleveland: 11.5%
  6. Minnesota: 9%
  7. Toronto: 7.5%
  8. Chicago: 4.5%
  9. Sacramento: 4.5%
  10. New Orleans: 4.5%
  11. Charlotte: 1.8%
  12. San Antonio: 1.7%
  13. Indiana: 1%
  14. Golden State: 1%

The top four equation is crucial as most NBA Draft experts view this draft as having a top tier of four guys. Those guys are Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Green and Jalen Suggs. Some experts also have Kuminga from the G-League in a similar tier.

Mar 19, 2021; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Cade Cunningham (2) makes a jump shot against the Liberty Flames during the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament at Indiana Farmers Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

While the Magic have the best chance (along with the Rockets and Pistons) at grabbing top picks, it’s not as good of a chance as in year’s past. In order to disincentivize tanking, the NBA recently flattened the odds and made it easier for teams with less-bad records to jump up and grab top picks. For example in 2019, the 1st pick went to the team with the 7th best pre-lottery slot and the 2nd pick went do the 8th best pre-lottery position. This is nightmare type stuff for Orlando Magic fans.

Furthermore, the Magic have intrigue around the Chicago Bulls’ pick. Currently sloted at the no. 8 position, if the Bulls’ pick lands outside the top 4, it goes to the Magic (as part of the Nikola Vucevic trade). If the Bulls jump into the top four, they keep the pick.

Add it up, and it could be a wildly positive night for the Magic. The best case scenario is that the Magic land the no. 1 pick, and the Bulls do not jump into the top four and thus the Magic get the 8th pick. 1 and 8 would be as good as it gets.

The flipside of the equation is that the Bulls and others could jump into the top four, effectively pushing the Magic outside the top 4 or 5 picks while also eliminating the transfer of the pick from Chicago to Orlando. The Magic could end up, in a worst case scenario, with the no. 7 pick and nothing else. Yikes.

So, a wide range of outcomes for the Orlando Magic tonight at the NBA Draft lottery. While just missing out on some allstar level talent in recent drafts, perhaps the Magic are due for some good fortunes in tonight’s lottery.

If the Magic are able to add a star-level talent in Cade Cunningham or perhaps a lights out scorer in Jalen Green, adding such a piece to a roster full of nice young pieces, the future could be very bright for the Magic. If, however, the Magic can’t add that top tier talent to a mix of promising, but unproven pieces, it could be several more years of rebuilding down in Orlando.

The NBA Draft lottery takes place tonight (June 22, 2021) at 8:30 p.m. eastern.