Indianapolis is the site of the men’s NCAA Tournament championship game on Monday night, with 1-seed Michigan taking on 2-seed UConn.
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What will happen tonight? We provide all the info you need before tipoff:
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 1 Michigan (in Indianapolis)
- 🎥 Time/TV info: 8:50 p.m. ET on TBS/truTV/HBO Max
- 👀 Matchup to watch: Yaxel Lendeborg vs. Solo Ball — No, I don’t expect these 2 players to be guarding each other a ton tonight. Instead, this is about who will be healthier. Lendeborg was very limited after suffering a leg injury against Arizona, only playing a few minutes in the second half. Ball sprained his foot against Illinois and was seen in a walking boot. Neither are listed on the official injury report ahead of tonight’s game, which isn’t surprising. This is the last game of the year, after all — can’t hold anything back now! Expect both to play plenty of minutes for their teams. But if Lendeborg is limited, that hurts Michigan more than Ball being limited hurts UConn. Ball does a lot for UConn, but Lendeborg is an all-everything player for a reason. If he can’t handle his normal scoring/play-making load, it’ll affect everyone else on the Wolverines.
- 🏀 Key note: Alex Karaban is no stranger to this moment. He’s won 2 national titles with UConn already. He posted 5 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks in the 2024 title game against Purdue. He had 5 points, 5 boards and 3 blocks against San Diego State in 2023. However, this time around, UConn will likely need more from the veteran wing. The problem? Karaban has been in a slump the last 2 games. Since scoring 22, 27 and 17 points in UConn’s first 3 tournament games, Karaban has scored 5 and 9 points against Duke and Illinois, respectively. He’s also mired in a 3-for-18 shooting slump that includes a 2-for-13 mark from beyond the arc. Michigan has the No. 1-rated defense, per KenPom. If the Wolverines can keep Karaban’s slump going for one more night, they’ll likely be the ones cutting down the nets when all is said and done.
- 🔬 Stat to know: Keep an eye on who controls the pace for the first 4-8 minutes of the game. That’ll give you a good idea of who will win when all is said and done. Michigan wants to get out and run in transition. The Wolverines rank No. 22 in the nation in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. UConn checks in at No. 319 out of 365 Division I programs. If UConn can make shots early and set up its half-court defense, it’ll be able to keep this thing close. If Michigan grabs rebounds and pushes the ball up the court, the Wolverines could turn in another blowout.
- 💰 The market says: Per Kalshi, Michigan has a 73% chance to win, while UConn has a 27% chance to cut down the nets.
- 🎊 My pick: Give me the Wolverines. Dusty May’s squad has been on an all-time heater throughout this tournament run. Dan Hurley and the Huskies keep it close and make the Wolverines sweat more than any of these other teams have, but Michigan wins its first title since 1989 and snaps the Big Ten’s title-less streak that’s gone on since 2000.
Check out the latest national title market via Kalshi:
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
