Alabama will travel to Tallahassee to take on Florida State in a matchup between a pair of big-time programs on Saturday afternoon.
While both Alabama and FSU have proud traditions, these programs appear to be headed in opposition directions. Alabama narrowly missed out on a CFP appearance last season while the Noles had their worst campaign in decades.
Alabama is a 13.5-point road favorite against Florida State according to most of the best sports betting apps.
Alabama vs. Florida State betting preview
Here’s everything you need to know before placing a bet on this game:
Alabama fact sheet
- Alabama enters Year 2 with Kalen DeBoer as its head coach. DeBoer has a well-earned reputation of winning everywhere he’s been, but he does have a clear weakness — he’s often lost games or under-performed as a significant favorite. Last season, Alabama went just 5-3 straight up in games where it was favored by 13+ points. From 2007 through 2023 under Nick Saban, Alabama went 129-5 in such games (excluding FCS opponents).
- Ty Simpson won Alabama’s starting QB job this season as he beat out Austin Mack and 5-star freshman Keelon Russell for the position. Despite being on campus for several years, Simpson has very little on-field experience. He’ll enter Saturday’s game with just 50 career pass attempts.
- Alabama brought in Ryan Grubb to be its offensive coordinator this year. Grubb nearly joined Alabama last offseason along with DeBoer, but ended up spending the 2024 season with the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks. Grubb was with DeBoer at his previous head coaching stops, and the pair has been working together off-and-on since 2007 when they were both at Sioux Falls.
- Wide receiver Ryan Williams is the name to know in this offense, but Miami transfer Isaiah Horton and Germie Bernard are also quality starters at wide receiver.
- At running back, Alabama is expected to be without starting running back Jam Miller until the Georgia game. DeBoer didn’t sugarcoat things when talking about Alabama’s options behind Miller earlier this month, suggesting there could be a big drop-off from Miller to the rest of that room. It’s murky for the time-being, but Richard Young is expected to get the start on Saturday.
- Defensively, Alabama brings back experience and blue-chip talent at all 3 levels. However, it’s worth noting that defensive tackle Tim Keenan seems doubtful to play for the Crimson Tide after DeBoer revealed he suffered a lower leg injury during fall camp. His status remains uncertain, but that would be a significant loss for Alabama.
- Alabama is 13th in defensive returning production, per ESPN. That’s a very high ranking for a program like Alabama that consistently churns out NFL talent. Kane Wommack and his staff will be working with a defense that’s rich in continuity this season.
Florida State fact sheet
- Florida State is looking to bounce back from a nightmare 2024 campaign that saw the Noles pick up just 1 FBS win. FSU went 2-8-1 against the spread in FBS games last season as the market was never able to quite catch up to just how bad the Noles were.
- Thomas Castellanos will replace DJ Uiagalelei as quarterback this season in Tallahassee. While there’s plenty of room for improvement after Uiagalelei’s rough season, Castellanos had a brutal 2024 of his own. He was benched at Boston College and saw his rushing production drop off a cliff compared to his 2023 numbers.
- FSU has 2 new coordinators, as you might expect after a 2-10 season. Gus Malzahn will be calling the offense while former Nebraska DC Tony White has been brought in to run the defense.
- Mike Norvell had the “portal king” moniker attached to his name as recently as a year ago. FSU heavily invested into the portal again this year, particularly at receiver and along the offensive line. FSU could start as many as 4 transfers up front. Former USC WR Duce Robinson and ex-Tennessee wideout Squirrel White are the names to know at receiver.
- Defensively, safety Ashlynd Barker and defensive lineman Darrell Jackson are the top returners. Both graded out pretty well last season, per Pro Football Focus, despite the lack of team success.
- FSU’s transfer class for 2025 ranked sixth nationally, per the 247Sports composite rankings.
Alabama vs. Florida State best bets
I think Alabama has a massive talent advantage in this game. Florida State will have plenty to prove, but I don’t see a Noles team that’s good enough to remain competitive in a game like this. Alabama has the talent to win the national title this year while FSU should be aiming for a bowl game. Even with DeBoer’s rocky history as a big favorite, I’m comfortable laying the points.
Pick: Alabama -13.5 (-110 on bet365)
While I’ve got Alabama winning this game in relatively comfortable fashion, I do think there’s space for Florida State’s Duce Robinson to have a big game. The reports out of Tallahassee have suggested Robinson is poised to have a big year after transferring in from USC. If this game plays out with Alabama taking a big lead, we should see plenty of pass attempts from Florida State. I think Robinson will be the go-to target for Castellanos and should be able to go over his receiving prop for this game.
Pick: Duce Robinson over 38.5 yards (-114 on FanDuel)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
