Miami vs. Texas A&M preview: Picks, predictions for Playoff showdown

Miami and Texas A&M will meet on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET in College Station in a highly-anticipated first-round College Football Playoff matchup.

Both of these teams have National Championship aspirations, but only one program can make it to the quarterfinal round.

Miami vs. Texas A&M Playoff preview

Here’s some news and notes regarding both of these teams:

Miami football news

• Miami squeaked into the College Football Playoff despite losing twice in ACC play this season. 
• While the Canes nearly missed out on the 12-team field, the advanced stats do suggest Miami is good enough to hang with elite competition. The Hurricanes are 7th in FPI, 11th in schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play, 7th in CFB-Graphs, 7th on Saragin and 9th in SP+. 
• Led by quarterback Carson Beck, Miami has an elite passing game. The Canes are 5th nationally this season in passing success rate, per Game on Paper. 
• Wide receiver Malachi Toney is a huge reason why. He logged 84 receptions this season, making him just 2 away from setting the program’s single-season receptions record. Toney is a true freshman this season but is arguably the best slot receiver in the country already. 
• Toney’s average depth of target this season is 6.6 yards (via PFF), so Beck likes to find him near the line of scrimmage with room to run. He has 48 receiving first downs this season, which puts him in the top-10 nationally in that category. 
• Miami’s running game isn’t anything to write home about. The Canes have produced a positive EPA-per-rush in just 2 of their last 5 games, per CFB-Graphs. 
• The strength of Miami’s defense is its secondary. The Hurricanes are top-20 nationally in EPA-per-pass allowed, according to Game on Paper. 
• Miami’s defensive line was often overwhelming for ACC fronts. Per Game on Paper, the Canes’ havoc rate (17.8%) was good enough to land in the 96th percentile this season. 

Texas A&M football news

• Texas A&M began the year with an 11-0 record but stumbled in its regular-season finale against Texas. 
• It’s worth noting that both of Texas A&M’s coordinators have accepted other positions for 2026. Offensive coordinator Collin Klein is leaving to become the head coach at Kansas State. Defensive coordinator Jay Bateman is departing for that same role at Kentucky. Both coaches are expected to remain with A&M until its Playoff run is over. 
• Texas A&M’s offense finished the regular season 5th in the SEC in yards per play. The Aggies also had an elite offense nationally, ranking 12th in EPA-per-play. 
• Texas A&M managed to go 11-1 this season despite being -7 in turnover margin. That ranks 14th in the SEC, with the only teams lower than the Aggies being Kentucky and Arkansas. 
• Marcel Reed took a significant step forward as a passer this season as he averaged 8.7 yards per attempt and posted a passer efficiency rating of 153.2. He also rushed for 466 yards this season. Since 2014, only 18 SEC quarterbacks have rushed for 450+ yards with a passer rating of at least 150. Reed and Heisman runner-up Diego Pavia were the only QBs to hit those benchmarks this season. 
• Texas A&M has a relatively clean availability report for this game. Running back Le’Veon Moss is questionable while linebacker Scooby Williams and Bryce Anderson are both questionable. 
• If there’s one area where Texas A&M is vulnerable, it’s against the run defensively. Specifically with regards to conceding explosive rushing plays. The Aggies are in the 1st percentile in that department this season, per Game on Paper. A&M gave up 58 rushes of 10+ yards this season, ranking ahead of only Mississippi State (68) and Arkansas (80). 

Miami vs. Texas A&M picks

Here are a couple of picks for this game that you can find on Underdog Fantasy:

Malachi Toney higher than 79.5 receiving yards

As mentioned earlier in this piece, Malachi Toney is one of the most prolific receivers in Miami football history and also one of the most efficient slot targets in all of college football. He has 25 catches for 272 yards in his last 2 games alone — it seems unlikely to me that Texas A&M will be able to hold him to fewer than 80 receiving yards.

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Marcel Reed lower than 27.5 pass attempts

This isn’t so much a pick against Reed as it is a pick in favor of Texas A&M’s running game. Regardless of whether or not Le’Veon Moss plays on Saturday, I think the Aggies are going to find some success running the ball. Miami’s defense gave up a ton of explosive runs this season (11.9% explosive rush rate, per Game on Paper) playing in the ACC — what happens when the Canes have to play an elite SEC offensive line in front of over 100,000 people? I think Texas A&M will see so much success running the ball that it limits what Reed will need to do through the air.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.