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Mississippi State football: 5 statistical trends the Bulldogs must reverse in 2022
By Les East
Published:
The most important statistic of all is trending upward for Mississippi State under head coach Mike Leach.
His first Bulldogs team finished 4-7 and 3-7 in the SEC in 2020.
In 2021, it finished 7-6 and 4-4.
State is hopeful that the upward trend in the won-loss record will continue in 2022. That’s more likely to happen if the Bulldogs can fix a few things.
Here are 5 statistical trends the Bulldogs must reverse in 2022:
1. Split the uprights more frequently
This one is pretty cut and dried.
State had the worst field-goal percentage (56 percent) in the SEC last season, making just 14 of 25.
That’s only part of the story.
The Bulldogs missed a 33-yard field goal in a 3-point loss to LSU and missed kicks of 23, 46 and 40 yards in a 3-point loss to Arkansas.
Average field-goal kicking almost certainly would have turned the loss to Arkansas into a victory, and it probably would have produced overtime against LSU.
It could have produced a 9-win regular season and a tie for 2nd place in the West division.
Leach addressed the problem by bringing in 2 kickers through the transfer portal — Massimo Biscardi (Coastal Carolina) and Ben Raybon (Northern Colorado).
2. Have a better turnover margin
Every team knows how important turnover margin is.
Every team tries to take the ball away more than it gives it away, and every team tries to improve its turnover margin even if it was a plus number the previous season.
And State’s numbers weren’t terrible last season — minus-2 (16 takeaways and 18 giveaways).
But the Bulldogs have been fighting an uphill battle in turnover margin since Leach arrived. They were minus-7 in his 1st season, and last season’s numbers were even more problematic than they might first appear.
They were plus-5 in their wins and minus-7 in their losses.
They had 3 takeaways and no giveaways in the win against N.C. State, and they had 4 takeaways and no giveaways in the win against Kentucky.
So aside from those bonanzas, they had just 9 takeaways in their other 11 games.
A net-plus number and an ability to take the ball away more consistently could make a big difference.
3. Get more defensive stops on 3rd down
State allowed opponents to convert 41.6 percent of their 3rd downs last season, which was 3rd worst in the SEC.
And this stat was trending badly down the stretch. The Bulldogs’ final 6 opponents converted 50 percent of their 3rd downs (40 of 80).
The defense did some good things last season, and it could be the strength of the team.
But in order to be that, it must get better at getting off the field.
4. Gain yards in bigger chunks with the passing game
It might seem surprising that a stat associated with the passing game would make this list because the passing game is Leach’s trademark.
But State’s passing game does feature an awful lot of short passes that are very likely to be completed, but require a lot of yards after the catch to produce big gainers.
The Bulldogs did progress from Leach’s 1st season to his 2nd as the passing yards per game increased from 296.3 to 378.3 and the yards per attempt increased from 5.9 to 7.0.
But in 2021, State’s passing yards per game were the most in the SEC, and its yards per passing attempt were 10th.
It takes a whole bunch of completions to produce that many yards.
The Bulldogs need to bring their yards per attempt ranking more in line with their yards per game ranking.
5. Allow fewer yards per play
The total defense stats produced a similar inconsistency last season. State’s game numbers were a whole lot better than its per-play numbers.
The Bulldogs ranked 5th in the SEC in total defense, allowing 345.2 yards per game, but only 3 SEC teams allowed a bigger gain-per-play average than State’s 5.6. The Bulldogs allowed essentially the same average in 2020 (5.5).
The total defense number is skewed, at least in part, because State led the SEC in time of possession, so opponents ran just 807 offensive plays. That was 2nd fewest in the SEC, just 3 more than Kentucky faced.
The Bulldogs’ ability to play keep away helps it hold down the yards that opponents gain. But the defense won’t be really good unless it does a better job of limiting average gain per play.
Les East is a New Orleans-based football writer who covers LSU for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @Les_East.
