It’s time for Week 4 of the college football season.
Earlier this week, I predicted 5 money line underdogs to pull off the outright upset this weekend. This piece will also focus on underdogs, but we’re only looking for against-the-spread winners here.
Picking 5 underdogs to cover the spread in Week 4
One more note — this piece won’t mention any of the underdogs covered in my money line predictions story from earlier this week.
With that being said, let’s get into it:
North Carolina +7 vs. Central Florida
North Carolina’s very public failure in Week 1 against TCU has evidently created a decent buy-low opportunity. The Tar Heels have bounced back with comfortable wins over Charlotte and Richmond. That level of competition isn’t anything to brag about, but it’s good to see the Tar Heels have good process on defense after an embarrassing effort vs. the Horned Frogs in Week 1.
I also just don’t have much faith in Scott Frost’s UCF program at this stage. The Golden Knights have only played 2 games — they beat Jacksonville State by 7 thanks to a fourth-quarter rally. Their other game was against North Carolina A&T. I don’t see anything in UCF’s profile to suggest it should be a 7-point favorite over virtually any power-conference team. I think the Tar Heels hold their own in this spot and beat the number.
Pick: North Carolina +7 (-112 on DraftKings)
Liberty +9.5 vs. James Madison
Look, it’s been a very disappointing start to the season for Liberty. There’s no sugarcoating that. The Flames were preseason favorites in Conference USA and have now sustained losses to Jax State and Bowling Green to start the year. But when you look under the hood, it’s not quite as bad as it may appear. Liberty actually out-gained Jax State on a yards-per-play basis (8.1 to 6.3) but was undone by turnovers and poor execution in the red zone. Against Bowling Green, Liberty had a higher success rate and gained more yards per drop-back — both usually bellwethers for a winning performance.
Liberty’s season is now more or less on the line against James Madison. The Dukes are probably the better team, but are they almost 10 points better? I don’t see any evidence of that. James Madison has only played 2 games this season. One was against an FCS opponent and the other was against Louisville. JMU hung around vs. the Cardinals, but its offense only averaged 3.4 yards per play in that game. That’s only marginally better than the 2.8 yards per play that Eastern Kentucky put up vs. the Cardinals. I think Liberty is being undervalued here.
Pick: Liberty +9.5 (-105 on BetMGM)
Temple +24.5 vs. Georgia Tech
I like this spot for Temple quite a bit. The Owls crushed Vegas expectations in their first 2 games before falling flat as 24-point dogs against Oklahoma in Week 3. Now just a week later, we get to bet Temple plus (virtually) the same number against Georgia Tech (the OU game was at home and this game is in Atlanta, but the point remains). OU out-classed Temple athletically, but I’m not sure the Yellow Jackets will be able to do the same. At least not to the same extent.
Georgia Tech is also coming off of a very emotional win against Clemson and has an ACC game vs. Wake Forest next week. Quarterback Haynes King has been a little banged up to start the year, so I’d guess we see less rushing usage from him in this game. Georgia Tech is at its best when King is running the ball effectively, so that could have a meaningful impact here for GT. Since Brent Key took over as head coach midway through the 2022 season, the Yellow Jackets are 8-10 against the spread in games following a win.
Pick: Temple +24.5 (-114 on Underdog Sportsbook)
Illinois +6 vs. Indiana
I’ve been low on this Illinois team since the preseason, but I think the Hoosiers are getting too much credit here. The Hoosiers slogged their way to a 27-14 win over Old Dominion in Week 1. Since then, they’ve completely blown out Kennesaw State and Indiana State. But I’d caution against buying into Indiana’s offensive efficiency numbers at this stage. The Hoosiers appear to be feasting on weak competition after the game is already over. They’re averaging over 10 yards per play on snaps where they’re already winning by 21+ points. Half of IU’s 20+ yard passing plays have come when it was already in cruise control.
Now Indiana will face an Illinois team that has posted excellent defensive efficiency numbers this season. The defense left some to be desired against Duke (apart from forcing 4 turnovers) but I like that Illinois has already been tested this season in a way that Indiana has not. There’s also this: Illinois is 18-10 against the spread as an underdog during the Bret Bielema era. That number balloons to 13-4 ATS when the Illini are a dog of 6 or more. I think Indiana probably finds a way to win outright, but I like the Illini to cover.
Pick: Illinois +6 (-110 on Fanatics)
Kent State +46 vs. Florida State
When are people going to stop underrating Kent State? Since the start of the 2024 season, the Golden Flashes have been underdogs of 45 or more in 3 different games. Kent State is 3-0 against the spread in those contests, including against Texas Tech earlier this year, and is covering by an average of over 10 points per game. How long before Kent State gets some respect in the market?
In all seriousness, I do like Kent State this week. The Golden Flashes are of course one of the worst teams in all of the FBS, but there’s been some progress this year. They enter this week a respectable 81st in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. They only lost by 3 to Buffalo last week despite entering that game as 24-point underdogs. Quarterback Dru DeShields is averaging 9 yards per attempt and hasn’t thrown a pick yet. That sounds like a level of competency we’re not used to seeing with the Golden Flashes. I think Kent State can keep this within the number.
Pick: Kent State +46 (-112 on BetRivers)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
