We’re on to Week 3 of the 2025 college football season.
Underdogs went 12-38 straight up last week for a win rate of 24% in FBS vs. FBS games. Unfortunately, we only nailed 1 upset pick last week as Sawyer Robertson and Baylor came back against SMU in overtime to secure a victory. South Alabama and Virginia were close, but close doesn’t cut it on the money line.
We’ll strive to do better in Week 3.
College football upset picks Week 3
Here are 5 upset predictions for Week 3 of the college football season:
Vanderbilt over South Carolina
South Carolina has put up a couple absolutely dreadful performances so far this season. Despite having one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country in LaNorris Sellers, the Gamecocks averaged under 4.6 yards per play against South Carolina State on Saturday. As I covered earlier this week, the recent history of power-conference teams being that abysmal vs. an FCS opponent is, as you might expect, abhorrent. The vast majority of the time, that team ends up with an offense that ranks outside the top-100 in yards per play at the beginning of the year.
Given the priors on South Carolina (7th in yards per play in SEC play last season) I’d guess predictive models may be a bit slow to adjust to the realities of this Mike Shula-led offense.
We also already have a common opponent between these teams even this early on in the season — Virginia Tech. In Week 1, South Carolina posted a success rate of just 38% against the Hokies and put up pretty pedestrian EPA numbers in both the pass and run games. In Week 2, Virginia Tech allowed Vanderbilt to post a 61% success rate (99th percentile for all games in 2024, per Game on Paper). The Commodores also averaged over 13 yards per drop-back — Diego Pavia seems to have leveled up.
It’s always a little dangerous picking against South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium. That home crowd is probably worth at least a field goal against the spread if not a little more. The Gamecocks have proven to be opportunistic on defense and special teams, too. But given what we’ve seen from South Carolina’s offense so far this year, I think Vandy is undervalued in this spot.
Pick: Vanderbilt +175 on Fanatics
Jacksonville State over Georgia Southern
It’s gone under-the-radar this season, but there’s been very few FBS teams this year that have been worse than Georgia Southern. The Panthers entered the season ranked 80th in SP+. After Week 2, they’re now down to 116th. If you follow this stuff on a week-to-week basis, you know that’s a major drop after just 2 data points since preseason projections still make up a large percentage of SP+’s formula this early in the year.
Jacksonville State, meanwhile, has risen from 136th (dead last) in the preseason to No. 98 entering Week 2. The Gamecocks soundly beat Liberty last week and played UCF to within a field goal back in Week 1. Jacksonville State features a run-heavy offense and Georgia Southern is dead last nationally in rush defense success rate after 2 games, so it’s not a good matchup for the Panthers, either. Other than preseason priors carrying too much weight, I’m not sure why Jacksonville State is an underdog in this game at all.
Pick: Jacksonville State +150 on DraftKings
Tennessee over Georgia
Full disclosure, I came into the year down on both the Vols and Bulldogs relative to consensus. I even thought Syracuse was live to win outright against the Vols in Week 1 (whoops). I’m still a little skeptical of where Tennessee will end up at the end of the season, but I do think it’s being a little undervalued here against Georgia.
Joey Aguilar has looked like the 2023 version of himself through 2 games and Tennessee’s receivers seem to be much-improved.
Georgia, on the other hand, has shown little sign of waking up from the offensive coma it’s been in since the end of the 2023 season. The Bulldogs managed only 28 points and had middling offensive EPA numbers against Austin Peay in Week 2. Remarkably, unbelievably in fact, Game on Paper shows Georgia didn’t create a single explosive play against the Governors.
So while it’s true that Tennessee will be without both of its starting cornerbacks for another week, I’m not sure that’s a massive hindrance in this Georgia-Tennessee rivalry matchup. The Bulldogs were held to 0 passing plays of 20+ yards by Austin Peay last week.
Pick: Tennessee +150 on FanDuel
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California over Minnesota
This should be a fun quarterback battle between Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey. There’s a chance Sagapolutele is already a top 20 or so quarterback in the nation even as a true freshman. Lindsey has been impressive to start his redshirt freshman campaign, too.
This is a bet on a couple of things. First and foremost, is Sagapolutele as good as he looked in Week 1 against the Beavers? I think so. Second, is Minnesota’s defense a bit overrated at this point in the season? The Golden Gophers have the No. 4 defense in SP+ entering this week, but are still breaking in a first-time defensive coordinator in Danny Collins.
Lastly, Minnesota’s run game has been horrible so far this season despite facing lackluster competition. Per Game on Paper, the Gophers are 88th nationally in EPA-per-rush after facing Buffalo and NW State. Cal’s defense isn’t elite, but it’s a step up from that group. If Minnesota can’t run the ball, that will add some pressure to Lindsey’s shoulders.
One more factor. This game is a 7:30 p.m. local kickoff at Cal, which makes it a very late night for the Golden Gophers. Minnesota only played one of the West Coast newcomers from the Big Ten in 2025 — UCLA. Favored by 3.5 points over the Bruins, Minnesota won by 4 despite a putrid offensive performance (3.8 yards per play). In a game where both teams have a lot of moving parts, I’ll take the home dog.
Pick: Cal +100 on BetMGM
Old Dominion over Virginia Tech
Unfortunately, I think we’re just about done with the Brent Pry era in Blacksburg. After the way the second half went on Saturday against Vanderbilt, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Hokies were put on “quit watch” this weekend against an Old Dominion team that will certainly take advantage of any opportunity to get an upset win over an in-state foe. If you need a refresher: Vandy out-gained Virginia Tech 321-21 in the second half alone. The Commodores had more touchdowns (5) in the second half than the Hokies had completed passes (4).
Old Dominion surprisingly played Indiana close (27-14) in Week 1 before blasting FCS NC Central in Week 2. It’s still too early to know what to think about the Monarchs, but this pick is more about what I think of the Hokies. That is to say, not much. There’s also this: Virginia Tech is just 8-5 straight up as a home favorite since Pry took over in 2022.
Pick: Old Dominion +245 on DraftKings
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
