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Tennessee vs. North Carolina betting preview: Full analysis, projected pitching matchups
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Tennessee will meet North Carolina in the first winner’s bracket game of the 2024 College World Series on Sunday evening.
Both the Vols and Tar Heels won in dramatic fashion on Friday. Tennessee needed a 4-run 9th inning to complete a walk-off comeback win over Florida State. North Carolina also got a walk-off hit — a theme for the Heels this postseason — in its opening-round win over Virginia.
The stakes in this matchup are extremely high — the winner advances to the semifinals of the College World Series and will have 2 opportunities to earn a spot in the championship series.
Here’s a look at the betting odds (via DraftKings) and projected pitching matchups for Tennessee vs. North Carolina:
Tennessee vs. North Carolina betting odds
Run line: Tennessee -1.5 (-115) | North Carolina +1.5 (-115)
Money line: Tennessee -190 | North Carolina +145
Total: Over 10.5 (-120) | Under 10.5 (-110)
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GET THE APPTennessee entered the weekend as the favorite at most books to win the College World Series, and that’s still the case as of Saturday morning. After all 8 teams have played 1 game, Tennessee’s odds have moved from +290 to +180 (per DraftKings).
North Carolina entered the week as high as +700 to win the national title, but the Tar Heels’ odds took a significant jump following their opening-round win. Carolina is now +460 to win the CWS, per odds from FanDuel.
With those numbers in mind, it’s not a surprise to see Tennessee as a sizable favorite over UNC on Sunday.
Tennessee vs. North Carolina projected pitching matchups
Tennessee probable pitcher: Drew Beam | 4.44 ERA in 93.1 innings | 85 strikeouts | 23 walks
Drew Beam is expected to get the nod for Tennessee in Sunday’s showdown vs. Carolina. Beam has been Tennessee’s best pitcher for much of the year and has been the team’s Game 2 starter throughout the postseason.
However, it’s worth noting that Beam has been struggling a bit lately. He hasn’t completed 5 innings in any of his last 3 starts. He has yielded 14 earned runs in just 13 innings of work over that span. Beam doesn’t have a ton of swing-and-miss in his profile, which can expose him to giving up big innings. He does have tremendous command of his arsenal, however.
Tennessee had to use several bullpen arms on Friday against Florida State, including star reliever Nate Snead for 2.1 innings. Snead and Aaron Combs both had long outings against the Noles and may be unavailable vs. the Tar Heels (at least for extended innings).
North Carolina probable pitcher: Shea Sprague | 4.00 ERA in 74.1 innings | 64 strikeouts | 16 walks
With Jason DeCaro going in Game 1 against Virginia on Friday night, the Tar Heels are likely to turn to Shea Sprague in Game 2. Sprague has shown he’s capable of dominant outings with the Tar Heels. He threw 6 innings of 1-run ball against NC State back on April 19. More recently, on June 1, he didn’t allow any runs in 4.1 innings of work against LSU.
Sprague has rarely put UNC in a bad spot during one of his starts. The Tar Heels have been victorious in 13 of his 16 appearances this season, including 5 of the last 6. UNC has only lost once when Sprague appeared in a game since April 20. The lone exception was May 24 against Wake Forest, when Sprague allowed 2 earned runs over 4.2 innings in an extra-innings loss to the Demon Deacons during the ACC Tournament.
Carolina used a total of 3 pitchers during its 3-2 win over West Virginia on Friday: DeCaro, Matt Poston and Dalton Pence. Poston and Pence were dominant out of the bullpen, limiting the Mountaineers to just 1 hit and 1 earned run over 5 frames. Even with those 2 potentially off the table, the Tar Heels have several viable bullpen arms who figure to be well-rested for Sunday’s game.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
