Will Alabama make the 2025 College Football Playoff? Prediction, analysis
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Alabama is gearing up for a crucial second season under Kalen DeBoer and a College Football Playoff appearance is at the top of the Tide’s goals for this year.
Last season, Alabama narrowly missed out on the CFP due to embarrassing road losses against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. It will be up to DeBoer and Co. to bounce back in a big way in 2025 or risk being on the hot seat after just 2 seasons on the job.
Alabama College Football Playoff odds
The betting markets view Alabama as likely to make the Playoff entering the year. According to the latest odds from FanDuel, the Crimson Tide are priced at -154 to reach the CFP. Bettors who are interested in fading Alabama’s Playoff aspirations can do so at a price of +122.
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Roster and returning production analysis
Alabama ranks 29th in Bill Connelly’s updated returning production metric. The Crimson Tide were outside of the top-90 last year, so this represents a pretty significant step forward in terms of continuity and experience.
Much of that returning production is on the defensive side of the ball, where Alabama ranks 13th coming out of the spring. The Tide return a bunch of key players on that side of the ball, including Tim Keenan, LT Overton, Deontae Lawson, Qua Russaw, Domani Jackson, Justin Jefferson, Zabien Brown, Keon Sabb, Jah-Marien Latham and Bray Hubbard. Each one of those players named above recorded 400+ snaps last season, per Pro Football Focus.
Offensively, the questions start at quarterback. There’s currently a 3-way battle ongoing between Ty Simpson, Austin Mack and Keelon Russell. Simpson is the most experienced option and was named the favorite coming out of camp. Mack has the most familiarity with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb as they were together at Washington along with DeBoer in 2023. Russell is a true freshman and could ultimately prove to be the future at QB in Tuscaloosa, but 2025 may be too early for that to come to fruition.
The quarterback position will likely sort itself out one way or the other — it seems Alabama has 3 solid options and an elite offensive coaching staff. That’s a recipe for having at least some measure of success.
It will be interesting to see if Alabama’s offense looks more like Washington’s in 2023 when Michael Penix Jr. was under center. That’s due to the return of Grubb but also Alabama’s offensive profile is likely to look much different than it did with Jalen Milroe at QB. Of the 842 offensive plays that Alabama ran last season, more than 27% were either Milroe rush attempts or passes behind the line of scrimmage.
One area where I expect Alabama to be significantly better in 2025 is at wide receiver. Ryan Williams is the obvious name to be excited about here, but Miami transfer Isaiah Horton could also have a huge impact in 2025. I’m also expecting a better year from Germie Bernard.
Alabama’s offensive line also returns a couple of potential all-SEC honorees in Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford. Kam Dewberry is one of the Tide’s biggest transfer additions and he’s expected to start at a guard spot. There’s some uncertainty at right tackle and at guard, but Alabama has a few other experienced options and should be able to have a quality offensive line in 2025.
Alabama’s 2025 schedule
Alabama’s SEC schedule this year will mirror what it looked like a year ago, only with the locations flipped. That means all 3 of the programs who beat the Crimson Tide on the road last season — Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Oklahoma — will be coming to Tuscaloosa this fall.
The road slate this year features Georgia, Mizzou, South Carolina and Auburn. The Crimson Tide will also go on the road to face Florida State in Week 1. It’s a bit unclear what that Noles team will look like after their disastrous season in 2024, but they figure to at least be better than they were a year ago. For now, Alabama is a 12.5-point favorite over FSU, per BetMGM.
Here’s a full look at Alabama’s schedule for 2025:
Although it’s not a perfect measure, it can be useful to look at strength-of-schedule by taking a look at average opponent win totals. Alabama’s average 2025 opponent has a Vegas win total of 7.5 this year, which ranks 7th among SEC teams.
Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff?
There’s no doubt Alabama has one of the most talented rosters in the country. When you combine the roster talent with the higher-than-usual returning production, it’s hard to not see improvement for this team in 2025.
Last year with an entirely new coaching staff, Alabama went 9-3 and would have made the Playoff if not for an ACC Championship win by Clemson. Looking at this year’s schedule, there’s only 1 game (at Georgia) that would truly scare me if I was an Alabama fan. You get Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma at home. Alabama should cruise to a 4-0 record in nonconference play, too.
Even with a loss against Georgia penciled in — and I wouldn’t necessarily rule out a Tide victory in Athens — this is an Alabama roster and coaching staff that should be able to lock down a 10-win regular season. Even at 9-3 with a quality nonconference schedule, I think Alabama would have an excellent shot to earn an at-large berth. Given the Tide’s College Football Playoff odds at most sports betting apps, I feel great about backing Alabama to make the CFP.
Pick: Alabama to make the College Football Playoff (-154 at FanDuel)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
