LSU is about to enter a pivotal season under Brian Kelly as it looks to get back to the College Football Playoff.
Last season, LSU fell short of expectations but did show signs of progress on the defensive side of the ball. Entering 2025, the Tigers once again have national championship aspirations and hopes of competing in a loaded SEC in 2025.
LSU College Football Playoff odds
LSU is currently regarded as a fringe Playoff contender, according to the betting markets. Per the latest odds from bet365, bettors can get +130 for backing LSU to make the CFP. If you’re interested in fading the Tigers, bet365 has that prop priced at -160.Â
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LSU’s roster and returning production
A huge piece of the optimism surrounding LSU this offseason is the return of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. He’s arguably the top returning QB in the conference with the likes of Jaxson Dart, Quinn Ewers and Jalen Milroe moving on. He also has much more experience than younger (but perhaps more talented) quarterbacks like Arch Manning and DJ Lagway.
That level of returning production extends throughout the LSU roster. The Tigers rank 23rd in that statistic as of the latest ESPN SP+ update in May. That’s an excellent spot for LSU to be considering its strong high school recruiting track record. For context, last season LSU ranked 60th in ESPN’s returning production metric.
Elsewhere on offense, LSU brings back a potential star in running back Caden Durham and last year’s top receiver in Aaron Anderson. The Tigers were also very aggressive in the transfer portal in adding Nic Anderson from Oklahoma and Barion Brown from Kentucky. That’s a wide receiver corps that could compete with any in the SEC if they’re able to stay healthy.
Of course, the offensive line could get tricky as LSU tries to replace Will Campbell. The 2025 NFL Draft top-5 pick has been a mainstay on LSU’s offensive line for years, but is now in the NFL. Redshirt sophomore Tyree Adams is believed to be the leader for that role, but the Tigers also added a couple of transfer offensive linemen this offseason. Campbell isn’t the only player who will need to be replaced, though, as LSU is expected to have 4 new starters this year on the O-Line.Â
Defensively, LSU brought in a healthy number of transfers led by former Florida State defensive lineman Patrick Payton and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. The Tigers also get Harold Perkins Jr. back as he’s expected to be ready to go for the start of the 2025 season after suffering a knee injury last fall.
This season will be a big test for second-year defensive coordinator Blake Baker. LSU did make some marginal improvements on the defensive side of the ball last season. In 2023, the Tigers finished the year ranked 122nd in schedule adjusted EPA per play on defense, according to Game on Paper. In Baker’s first year in charge of the defense, LSU improved to 72nd nationally in that category. That’s not good enough to compete for a national title, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction. The key will be whether or not LSU can make a similar jump into the top-40 or so in that area in 2025.
LSU’s 2025 schedule analysis
LSU will face the same SEC opponents it did a year ago but at opposite venues in 2025. That means the Tigers get Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Arkansas at home. They’ll go on the road to play Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Alabama and Oklahoma.
One major change to the schedule this fall is LSU opens the 2025 season at Clemson. The Tigers are winless in season openers under Brian Kelly, so figuring out a way to get a road victory at Clemson’s Death Valley will be crucial.Â
Of course, a loss to Clemson would not be detrimental to LSU’s Playoff hopes — Clemson is projected to be among the very best teams in the country this year. But a win would mean a lot for an LSU team that has yet to make the CFP under Kelly.Â
LSU’s SEC slate is pretty forgiving, with a road test against Alabama being the only conference that game appears to be exceptionally difficult.Â
Here’s a full look at LSU’s slate for 2025:
Will LSU make the College Football Playoff in 2025?
I certainly understand some of the trepidation from the betting markets with LSU, but I think they’re too low on this Tigers team. It’s reasonable to expect some improvement from Garrett Nussmeier in his second year as a starter. I also think we could see another big leap from LSU’s defense in Year 2 under defensive coordinator Blake Baker.
The schedule is another big reason for optimism. Game against Clemson and Alabama will be tough, but I think LSU could theoretically go 10-0 or 9-1 against the rest of its opponents. If LSU goes 9-3 or better with this schedule, I think the Tigers will have a great chance to make the CFP.
Most models seem to have LSU’s College Football Playoff odds at around 30%, but I think that’s selling the Tigers short. I’d ballpark LSU’s Playoff chances in the 50% range, which makes +130 a sensible bet.
Pick: LSU to make the College Football Playoff (+130 at bet365)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
