This year’s Thanksgiving NFL slate is loaded with great games.
The Packers and Lions will get started with a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on Thursday afternoon. That contest will be followed up with Chiefs-Cowboys in Dallas. For the nightcap, fans will be treated to an AFC North battle between the Bengals and Ravens in Baltimore.
Thanksgiving NFL predictions
Here are 3 NFL picks for this year’s Thanksgiving slate:
Jordan Love to throw multiple TD passes
The Lions have not been good against good teams this season. They’ve lost to the Eagles and Vikings this month. Earlier in the year, they lost to the Chiefs and Packers. Their best wins of the year came in Weeks 1 and 2 when they beat the Bears and Ravens. Since then, Detroit has just 1 win against a team with a record better than .500 entering Week 13 (6-5 Tampa Bay). Detroit has a mediocre pass defense — it ranks 17th in dropback EPA this season. Conversely, the Packers rank No. 1 in the NFL in offensive dropback EPA. I think Jordan Love will have a big game in Detroit on Sunday and should be able to find the end zone multiple times.
Pick: Jordan Love over 1.5 touchdown passes (-112 on DraftKings)
Chiefs to exploit rest advantage vs. Cowboys
The Cowboys will be playing their third game in 11 days on Thanksgiving. Like the Chiefs, they also played on Sunday in Week 12. But Dallas also played on Monday Night Football in Week 11, meaning this will be its second consecutive short week. To some extent, that small rest advantage for the Chiefs is already priced in to the line. But I do think there’s a higher probability than normal that Dallas could break down in this spot. Even with the Cowboys’ trade deadline acquisitions and back-to-back wins, Dallas’s defense over the last couple of weeks has turned in mediocre advanced numbers. It’s also worth noting that starting left tackle Tyler Guyton is likely to miss the game due to injury. I like Kansas City to win the second half.
Pick: Chiefs -1 in second half (-110 on bet365)
Not in a legal betting state? You can still get in on the action with Kalshi, a prediction market that’s legal in all 50 US States! Here’s a look a the Kalshi market for Chiefs vs. Cowboys:
Ravens, Bengals to play an offense-heavy game
The Bengals have arguably the worst defense in the NFL, so a Cincinnati total under 52 is certainly worth considering. Last week’s games against the Patriots ended with 46 total points, but that score easily could have been much higher (those teams settled for a combined 6 field goals due to poor third-down outcomes). Prior to that, all 4 of Cincinnati’s previous games flew over this number. Plus, Joe Burrow is expected to return from injury this week which should give a big boost to the Bengals’ offense. Baltimore has won 5 straight games entering this matchup but here’s the list of quarterbacks it has faced over that span: Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, JJ McCarthy, Dillon Gabriel/Shedeur Sanders and Tyrod Taylor. I expect Burrow will be able to put significant pressure on this Baltimore defense and we’ll see plenty of points in both directions to clear this number.
Pick: Ravens vs. Bengals over 51.5 total points (-110 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
