Thursday Night Football this week features a matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Both of these teams have postseason aspirations, so fans should be in for a great matchup.
Vikings vs. Chargers odds
Here’s a look at the latest betting odds for Thursday Night Football:
Here’s what you should know about both teams before placing a bet on this game:
Vikings news and notes
- JJ McCarthy remains out for the Vikings as he recovers from an ankle injury. Carson Wentz is expected to start his fifth consecutive game this week.
- Wentz has led the Vikings to a 2-2 record. He’s averaging 7.5 yards per attempt, which is a career-high. His PFF passer grade of 53.6 ranks 30th out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 75 drop backs over the last 4 weeks.
- Jordan Mason has been excellent this season out of the backfield. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry, but arguably more importantly has a 56% rushing success rate this season. That ranks fourth among running backs (min. 75 carries) entering this week.
- Justin Jefferson dominates Minnesota’s target share, even with a talented counterpart in Jordan Addison also lining up at receiver. Jefferson (52) has already doubled up Addison (26) in terms of targets this season.
- Defensively, Minnesota has been dominant. The Vikings rank 4th in the NFL in defensive EPA-per-play.
- That’s the biggest reason why the Vikings have been able to get to 3-3 despite subpar quarterback play so far this season. Minnesota has been especially good against the pass, ranking 3rd in pass defense EPA per play allowed.
- The Vikings are 1 of 3 defenses in the NFL that forces their opponents into 3-and-outs on more than 30% of drives.
Chargers news and notes
- The Chargers have not played well over the last month. Since starting 3-0, the Chargers have a narrow win over the Dolphins plus losses to the Giants, Commanders and Colts. The last 2 defeats haven’t been close — Washington won 27-10 and Indianapolis won 38-24.
- Justin Herbert leads the league in passing yards and pass attempts. The Chargers are third in the NFL with a 64.9% pass play rate.
- The Chargers have been banged up at offensive tackle this season. They lost left tackle Rashawn Slater to a season-ending injury in training camp and had to move Joe Alt over to the left side. Alt has had his own injuries to deal with this season, as has Trey Pipkins (Slater’s initial replacement).
- LA has already played 4 different tackles over 140 snaps this season and only Alt has a PFF grade over 55. Alt and Trey Pipkins both practiced on Wednesday, leaving some room for optimism the Chargers could have both in the lineup on Thursday night.
- Running back has also been an area where the Chargers are severely limited. Najee Harris is out for the year and first-round pick Omarion Hampton is currently on IR. Kimani Vidal is expected to get most of the usage this week.
- Oronde Gadsden is a rookie tight end who had a breakout game in last week’s loss to the Colts. He caught 7 passes for 164 yards and 1 touchdown. He’s now earned 8+ targets in back-to-back games.
- The Chargers have been mediocre defensively this season, to say the least. They rank 19th in defensive EPA-per-play. They’re also 21st in pressure rate this season.
Vikings vs. Chargers picks
I like the Vikings this week. Even if Joe Alt returns to the lineup, this Chargers offensive line is just poor. Herbert has been pressured 49 times already this season, which is the fifth-most for any quarterback in the NFL. Alt certainly helps, but the interior of LA’s offensive line has been pretty leaky too. Bradley Bozeman, Mekhi Becton and Zion Johnson have been tagged with a combined 41 pressures already this season, and they aren’t good run blockers either. The Vikings have been great against the pass and the Chargers’ defense has been pretty vulnerable. I think Minnesota keeps this within a field goal and is a threat to win outright.
Pick: Vikings +3.5 (-115 on Fanatics)
I’m fading the Oronde Gadsden hype train this week. Gadsden has been a huge part of LA’s passing game the past couple of weeks, but I think this number is too high. He’s also had a couple relatively anonymous games this season. The Chargers throw the ball a lot, but they have 3 receivers in Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnson who all accrue serious targets. Gadsden is a distant fourth to those 3 in terms of total targets this year. Gadsden is also due for some regression as he’s currently catching almost 80% of his targets for a whopping 11 yards per target. He’s been almost as efficient as Jaxon Smith-Njigba (on much lesser volume) in those areas. The Vikings have also defended tight ends well this season. Only one (David Njoku) has totaled more than 5 targets and 40 yards against Minnesota this season.
Pick: Oronde Gadsden under 43.5 receiving yards (-110 on DraftKings)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
