Ad Disclosure
Week 5 of the 2024 college football season is almost here.
Last week in this piece, we discussed Iowa State’s track record as a big favorites, Mario Cristobal’s performance after a win, Boston College’s history in Red Bandana Games and more.
Here are 5 betting trends to keep an eye on for Week 5:
Fading Kentucky as an SEC road dog
Kentucky is a 17-point underdog this weekend in Oxford, per bet365. It’s already the second time this season that Kentucky has been a big-time underdog in conference play. The first instance came against Georgia back in Week 3, but the Wildcats were at home for that game.
This time, Kentucky will be on the road against a top-10 team in Ole Miss. Historically, UK has not been good in this spot under Mark Stoops. Since 2013, Kentucky has covered the spread just 8 out of 21 times when going on the road in SEC play as an underdog of 10 points or more. That’s a cover rate of about 38%.
The Wildcats have been slight better when they’re underdogs of any number, but still far from profitable with a 45% cover rate against SEC teams on the road over the same span.
Notre Dame vs. the ACC
Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame will host Louisville this weekend as they look for their second top-25 win of the season.
Notre Dame has developed a reputation of losing games as massive favorites over the past couple of years, most recently with its loss to Northern Illinois back in Week 2. But Notre Dame has generally played very well against ACC opponents under Freeman.
In 10 prior games against ACC opponents, Freeman and the Fighting Irish are 8-2 against the spread and 8-2 straight up. It’s worth noting that one of those losses did come against Louisville on the road last season. Its other loss to an ACC team over this span came against Clemson in 2023.
Notre Dame has decisively won in this spot, historically. The Irish’s average margin-of-victory over ACC teams during the Freeman era is just shy of 20 points. That’s despite an average point spread of only 9.3 points over the same span.
Notre Dame is a 6.5-point favorite at home this weekend against Louisville, per bet365.
Dan Lanning as a big favorite vs. conference opponent
Dan Lanning has been successful overall at Oregon, but he’s consistently beaten expectations in spots like the one he finds himself in this weekend.
Oregon is a 25.5-point road favorite against conference foe UCLA in Week 5, per DraftKings. That seems like a very high spread considering the Ducks are on the road against a Big Ten opponent, but that’s where the market is as of publication.
Historically, this has been an excellent spot to back Oregon. The Ducks are 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread when favored by more than 14 points against a conference opponent under Lanning. That record includes a 4-0 mark in road games as well.
It’s a relatively small sample, but this is a type of game that Oregon has typically showed up for under Lanning. The Ducks are also coming off of a bye this week. Oregon is 1-0-1 against the spread when coming off a bye in Lanning’s previous 2 seasons.
Backing Deion Sanders as a double-digit underdog
Colorado is a 14-point underdog on the road at Central Florida this weekend, according to the latest odds from ESPN BET.
This marks the first time this season and the seventh time overall that the Buffs have been double-digit underdogs in the Deion Sanders era. In the previous 6 instances, Colorado went 5-1 against the spread.
The interesting thing is that Colorado only won 1 of those games outright — against TCU last season — but managed to cover the spread in 4 of the 5 other contests. On 3 occasions, Colorado managed to beat the number by double digits.
Ryan Day as a big favorite vs. Big Ten opponent
Ohio State is a 24.5-point favorite on the road in East Lansing this weekend, per bet365.
That may seem like a lot of points for a Big Ten matchup, but this is hardly uncharted territory for Ohio State during the Ryan Day era. This will mark the 19th time that Ohio State is favored by 3+ touchdowns over a conference foe since the start of the 2019 season.
Ohio State is 11-6-1 against the number in those contests — good for a cover rate just shy of 64%.
If you lower the point spread threshold to get a larger sample size, it still results in OSU dominating against the spread. The Buckeyes are 23-13-2 against the number when favored by double digits over that same span.
Note: Trends via BetIQ
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
