Ad Disclosure
Week 4 of the 2024 college football season is almost here.
Last week in this piece, we discussed Oklahoma State’s history as a road favorite, Kansas State’s performances at home under Chris Klieman, the recent history of road underdogs with low totals and more.
Here are 5 betting trends to keep an eye on for Week 4:
Lincoln Riley as a road favorite
USC will step into the Big House on Saturday as 6-point favorite (via DraftKings) over the defending national champions. While confidence in the Trojans is high entering the weekend, this has not been a good spot to back Lincoln Riley throughout his head coaching career.
Riley has really struggled as a road favorite historically. He’s 2-5 against the spread as a road favorite in his USC career and he went 5-12 against the spread in those same contests as Oklahoma’s head coach from 2017-21.
In total, that makes Riley 7-19 ATS as a road favorite — good for a cover rate of only 27%.
Matt Campbell as a significant favorite
Since Matt Campbell took over at Iowa State in 2016, you’d be hard-pressed to find a program who has performed better against the spread as a massive favorite.
Over that span, the Cyclones are 5-1 against the spread when playing as 21-point favorites or more. That’s a small sample size, yes, but Iowa State has also been very profitable to bet on as a 14+ point favorite during the Campbell era: 8-4 (67% cover rate). Iowa State is also 12-0 straight up in those contests.
Iowa State is a 21.5-point favorite at home this weekend against Arkansas State, per bet365.
Boston College in Red Bandana Games
Boston College will have its annual Red Bandana Game on Saturday against Michigan State.
The Red Bandana Game is a tradition that started at Boston College in 2014. It honors the legacy of former Boston College lacrosse player Welles Crowther, who lost his life while working as a volunteer firefighter in New York City on Sept. 11, 2001.
It’s an emotional tradition that often brings the best out of Boston College’s football team. The Eagles have produced some major upsets over the years in Red Bandana Games, including against then-No. 9 USC in 2014.
So do bettors have an edge when backing Boston College in the Red Bandana Game?
Not really, as it turns out. At least not against the spread.
The Eagles are 4-6 straight up and 5-5 against the spread in 10 previous Red Bandana Games. The perception that Boston College is tougher to beat comes from its history of pulling off a couple big upset wins in this spot, but the Eagles have also lost their fair share of bad games.
Boston College is a 6.5-point favorite (via FanDuel) against Michigan State this weekend, marking just the second time ever that the Eagles have been favored in a Red Bandana Game. In the only previous instance, the Eagles lost to Florida State by a touchdown as 1-point favorites.
Here’s a complete game log of previous Boston College Red Bandana Games:
Mario Cristobal on the road after a win
Miami is coming off of a 62-0 shellacking of Ball State last weekend. The Hurricanes will now make the short trip to USF’s campus on Saturday, where they are 16.5-point favorites (via bet365) over the Bulls.
Historically, Cristobal has covered the spread at a good clip in this spot. Including his tenures at Oregon and Florida International, Cristobal teams are 19-14 (58%) against the spread when playing on the road after a win.
That record does include a 1-3 mark during his first 2 years at Miami. However, the one cover came in a spot similar to this one — when the Canes played on the road at Temple as big favorites last season.
Ranked underdogs
In the last 10 years, underdogs in top-25 matchups have not performed well against the spread.
According to BetLabs, teams in that spot are just 219-277-8 against the spread over the last decade. That’s a cover rate of just 44%.
Some previous examples of this trend succeeding this season include Georgia’s Week 1 win over Clemson, Texas’ Week 2 win over Michigan, Tennessee’s Week 2 win over NC State and Kansas State’s Week 3 win over Arizona.
This week, there are 4 matchups between top 25 teams. Here are the current lines for those games, via DraftKings:
- Nebraska (-8) vs. Illinois
- USC (-5) at Michigan
- Oklahoma State (-2.5) vs. Utah
- Tennessee (-7) at Oklahoma
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
