SEC East: Buy or sell hot topic for every team
Optimism covers Dixie like the dew every spring. (And Missouri, too.)
With that in mind, we take a look at whether we’re buying or selling one hot topic for each SEC East team in 2016.
Florida
Statement: Florida will repeat as SEC East champion.
Buy/sell: Sell.
Why? The Gators simply aren’t the same without Will Grier, and in 2016, they’ll also be replacing their top running back and quite possibly their emerging go-to receiver, Antonio Callaway.
The team that finished 2015 was not the best team in the East last season, and that’s largely the same situation Jim McElwain will face in Year 2.
Georgia
Statement: Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will become the first Georgia duo to each rush for 1,000 yards in the same season.
Buy/sell: Buy.
Why? Georgia has flirted with this milestone several times recently, with different combinations. In 2012, Todd Gurley ran for 1,385 yards and Keith Marshall added 759. In 2014, Nick Chubb led the Dawgs with 1,547 and Gurley had 911 before the NCAA suspended him. Last season, Sony Michel ripped off 1,161 yards after Chubb.
Sam Pittman didn’t leave Arkansas to revamp Georgia’s pass-blocking (not this year, anyway). Regardless of who wins Georgia’s quarterback job — Greyson Lambert of Jacob Eason — the Bulldogs won’t ask him to win games (not this year, anyway).
Six weeks ago, Kirby Smart told reporters that Chubb was making “really good progress” in his return from knee surgery. With his recovery and Michel’s emergence, sharing carries is a natural, which means both should have a chance to make a run for 1,000.
https://twitter.com/dawgroundtable/status/715282920664145921
Speaking of Smart, he’s worth a buy/sell on whether he’ll win more games in Year 1 than a) Mark Richt did last season or b) Mark Richt will this season at Miami.
Sell both. Miami, which has no questions at quarterback, likely will be the preseason pick to win the ACC Coastal Division.
Kentucky
Statement: Kentucky will have a winning record in the SEC for the first time since 1977.
Buy/sell: Buy.
Why? We’re quickly approaching the “if not, then when” portion of Mark Stoops’ tenure. Playing Alabama in the cross-over isn’t ideal, but at least it’s on the road, where SEC wins are difficult to come by, anyway. Same theory for Tennessee. The odds of winning those games anywhere are low, so better for them to be on the road and keep the more winnable games at home.
Getting Florida in Week 2 is a huge plus, even on the road, because of all of the newness surrounding the Gators’ offense. Florida figures to be more dangerous in Week 10 than 2.
The Wildcats’ home SEC slate presents three winnable games: South Carolina (new quarterback), Vanderbilt (struggling quarterback) and Mississippi State (new quarterback). Georgia (potentially a new quarterback) clearly is the most difficult in the home group.
The key could be an Oct. 29 trip to Missouri, which also is in recovery mode with a young quarterback trying to find his way.
Missouri
Statement: Missouri will double its point total in Year 1 under new offensive coordinator Josh Heupel.
Buy/sell: After monitoring, ultimately sell.
Why? Missouri averaged just 13.6 points per game last season — and doubling that total still would have resulted in the SEC’s ninth-best offense. So there is plenty of room for improvement, and 27.2 points still would be a tick less than the 2014 Tigers produced.
Missouri returns a key piece in Drew Lock, who brings stability to the quarterback position as well as leadership, but holes remain in the running game.
Heupel obviously brings a new, proven approach that will make the Tigers better, but maybe not two touchdowns per game better.
South Carolina
Statement: Brandon McIlwain not only will be the opening day starter at quarterback but will have a better season than Georgia’s Jacob Eason.
Buy/sell: Buy.
Why? Two parts: First, Eason still has to work his way up the depth chart, which could happen but not as quickly as it appears to be happening for McIlwain.
Second, McIlwain is a true freshman in name only. He’s already a college athlete, already playing two sports. So much about playing baseball is mental makeup, handling adversity, slumps, etc., and McIlwain’s appears to be off the charts.
Those intangibles translate to the huddle. Nobody is saying he’ll be Jameis Winston or Russell Wilson, but those are two good, recent examples of two-sport athletes whose poise might be their greatest tool.
Tennessee
Statement: The Volunteers will win the SEC East, the SEC Championship Game and reach the College Football Playoff.
Buy/sell: Sell.
Why? The Volunteers will be favored to handle the first task, and it’s difficult to envision any SEC champion not reaching the Final Four.
Two hurdles stand in the way: First, the Vols have to survive a back-to-back against primary contenders Georgia and Florida in early October. Without rest, they’ll then face Texas A&M and Alabama. Two losses might knock them out of the East running.
Then there is the matter of conquering the SEC West in the SEC title game, something no East team has done since Tim Tebow and Florida took out Alabama in 2008.
That could require beating Alabama twice in the same season, or Alabama and LSU in the same season.
Vanderbilt
Statement: Vanderbilt will show improvement for the third consecutive year under Derek Mason.
Buy/sell: Sell.
Why? The Commodores went 3-9 in Mason’s first season and 4-8 last season. Getting to 5-7 will all but require a dominant road effort, which rarely happens.
Home wins could be scarce, with Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee visiting Nashville, along with South Carolina in the opener.
It’s unlikely the Commodores will be favored in non-conference games at Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky, which went 12-2 in C-USA last season, and almost knocked off Indiana in Bloomington. Even Middle Tennessee State finished 7-6 and won a bowl game last season.