The SEC East’s longest-tenured head coaches are Butch Jones and Mark Stoops, each entering their fourth season with Tennessee and Kentucky, respectively.

The incessant revenue growth, amplified by the SEC Network revenue, only has served to speed up the win-or-leave timeline for the conference’s head coaches. But with as much turnover as we’ve seen, including three new East Division head coaches in 2016, will there be more change after this next season?

It seems the most likely candidates are Kevin Sumlin, Les Miles and Mark Stoops. Nick Saban doesn’t seem keen on retiring soon, and Dan Mullen thus far has turned down interest from schools outside Starkville. But perhaps there could be a surprise or two as well.

WHICH CURRENT SEC HEAD COACH(ES) WON’T BE AROUND IN 2017?

Tom Brew (@tombrewsports): Mark Stoops, Kevin Sumlin (maybe)

I think there are only two coaches with serious hot seats. Kentucky’s Mark Stoops has made Kentucky better, but that collapse down the stretch in 2015 looked very ugly. Not only did they lose six of seven, but the also blew a huge lead against their in-state rival Louisville in the final game to miss out on a bowl bid. Yes, Stoops inherited a mess but this is year four now and he has to have a winning season or he’s gone.

The other hot seat belongs to Kevin Sumlin at Texas A&M. He’s got a lot of things going against him all of a sudden there. They’ve spent hundreds of millions of dollars in facilities upgrades and expect to be a top 10 program. They won’t be ranked in the top 25 next year. There’s a new athletic director coming aboard, and he might want his own guy. Sumlin just watched two five-star QBs transfer. And 2016? Well, in the SEC West, Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss are all better, for sure. Arkansas and Auburn might be. If A&M has a 3-5 – or even worse, a 2-6 – SEC season, Sumlin can’t survive that.

Chris Wright (@filmroomeditor): Les Miles, Mark Stoops, Kevin Sumlin

Mark Stoops and Les Miles are logical suggestions. Stoops has to get Kentucky to .500 this season, and Miles probably needs to win an SEC West title — or at least beat Alabama. I’ll add Kevin Sumlin, either by his choice or theirs.

Clearly Texas A&M, with all the money and resources invested, is putting in more than the eight wins it is getting out.

That spells trouble for any head coach, especially in a league as competitive and impatient as the SEC.
Texas A&M, with all of the recruiting talent available, is a potential sleeping giant.

John Brasier (@john_brasiersds): No departures

With all the turnover in recent years, there might not be any departures after next season. Missouri, Georgia and South Carolina will have second-year coaches. Kevin Sumlin, Mark Stoops and Les Miles are the only coaches who appear to be in any sort of must-win situation for next season. Bret Bielema and Butch Jones haven’t won big yet, but seem to be on the right path and popular with their fan bases. Gus Malzahn won an SEC championship (yeah, I know Gene Chizik won a national title) and seems to be highly regarded. If Hugh Freeze or Dan Mullen left, it would be to take a bigger job. Derek Mason has bought himself more than one additional year. Nick Saban could retire.

The guess here is that Sumlin needs to win at least nine games with at least one signature win against Alabama, Ole Miss or LSU. Stoops needs win seven games with a victory over Louisville. Miles needs to win at least 10 with an improved passing game.

Christopher Smith (@csmithSDS): Kevin Sumlin

Sumlin earned equity with Johnny Manziel, the subsequent financial boom in the athletic department and the renovation of the new stadium. Texas A&M has been pointed toward 2016 for the last two seasons. Only now the team’s offense is in disarray with a new coordinator, several new offensive assistants and three quarterbacks that transferred within one calendar year. Getting paid $5 million isn’t as high-brow as it was two years ago.

But certainly it’s not OK to finish in the bottom half of the SEC West four consecutive years. That’s where Sumlin and the Aggies appear to be heading as Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss all look like better teams in 2016. Arkansas and Auburn could be better as well. If Texas A&M wins 8 games again — maybe even 9, depending on how things break — the Aggies will hand Sumlin $15 million and find another coach. Tom Herman, anyone?

Talal Elmasry (@TalalElmasrySDS): Kevin Sumlin, Mark Stoops, Dan Mullen

Two things will ultimately lead to Sumlin’s downfall in College Station: 1) His hefty contract and 2) The fact that he’s set up for failure this season. Sumlin is part of the exclusive $5 million club, which at the moment only has seven members, and he’s the 2nd-highest paid coach in the SEC behind Nick Saban. He has tremendous pressure to have a great season without Johnny Manziel. The defections at QB don’t help with that, and I’ve never been a fan of Trevor Knight.

I also believe Stoops will be gone. Overall, he’s had 12 wins in his three seasons in Lexington, and that isn’t as bad as Rich Brooks, who only had nine wins in his first three but lasted four more seasons. What’s hurting Stoops more than anything is Kentucky’s utter collapses the last two seasons. His teams have failed to show improvement, and that turns heads to the head coach. I think he’s under pressure to make a bowl in 2016, and I don’t think he will.

As for Mullen, I think he’ll land a job elsewhere because the school certainly won’t part ways with him in Starkville. I think the Bulldogs will overachieve in the first year after Dak Prescott’s departure, and that will get his phone ringing.