Week 5 of SEC play has arrived, and ESPN’s Bill Connelly has shared his calculated SP+ projections of the upcoming weekend’s matchups.

The largest probability to win goes to Alabama, with an 86% chance to beat Tennessee in Knoxville. Connelly’s metric projects Alabama to beat Tennessee 37-19, with the Vols covering the 21-point spread.

Connelly also has Auburn beating Ole Miss 31-26 with a 61% chance to win, Kentucky defeating Missouri 26-22 with a 59% chance to win, and LSU beating South Carolina 33-22 with a 74% chance at victory.

Connelly notes that his SP+ metric has correctly predicted 54% of games against the spread through four weeks of action.

Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, and South Carolina fans will certainly hope that this is an off week for Connelly.