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First and 10: Portal King? Lane Kiffin bringing in elite transfers as Ole Miss inches closer to Playoff contender
By Matt Hayes
Published:
1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
He laid out the plan early last month, so we shouldn’t be surprised. It had nothing to do with insulting his current team.
It had everything to do with hanging a sign and proclaiming Ole Miss open for business.
Or, open to those elite players looking for sweet NIL deals.
We’re 2 weeks into the opening of the winter transfer portal, and already Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is making good on the promise he made after the Rebels were clobbered by Georgia in a statement game.
Kiffin said Ole Miss needed more 5-star players like Georgia has. It sounded bad, but the truth often arrives with a hammer.
So far, Kiffin has commitments from an All-SEC receiver (South Carolina’s Juice Wells), 2 productive edge rushers (Florida’s Princely Umanmielen and Tennessee’s Tyler Baron), a high volume tackling linebacker (Arkansas’ Chris Paul Jr.), and 4 defensive backs — all part of the nation’s No. 1 portal class, according to the 247Sports composite.
Add to that a top-20 high school recruiting class, and Ole Miss is well on its way to looking more like Georgia. If that’s possible.
“I kind of call them a blended family,” Kiffin said of this year’s roster, which was a lot like the 2022 roster — full of quick fixes from the transfer portal in the new, untamed era of player procurement. “Just kind of put together. Some have been here for 6 years from the beginning, some of have been here for 1 year.”
These are the new rules in the era of the transfer portal and free player movement, so you may as well play by them. And/or do it better than anyone else.
Only those with all the possible advantages (see: Georgia) can build organically through high school recruiting. Others are given this wonderfully wicked portal tool to play catch-up.
Why not embrace it?
TCU did, and in 1 season grew from a 5-win team in 2021 all the way to the 2022 national championship game. Florida State did, and but for an injury to quarterback Jordan Travis, would’ve advanced to this year’s Playoff.
Those 2 extreme cases happened in the Big 12 and ACC, respectively. Can it really happen in the big, bad SEC?
Without a convoluted “Alliance” of “like-minded” conferences — remember that? — we’d be watching it play out this season.
2. A year too soon
If the new Playoff format were this season — and it could have been had the “Alliance” of the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 not blocked it — 4 SEC teams would have advanced.
Alabama, Georgia, Missouri and — you guessed it — Ole Miss.
Alabama would’ve earned a 1st-round bye, and No. 6 seed Georgia would’ve played host to No. 11 seed Ole Miss in a 1st-round game. Missouri — another portal-fueled SEC team — would’ve played at Oregon in 1st-round game.
The initial response to that is Georgia beat Ole Miss by 35 in Athens a month ago. Why would anyone want to watch a repeat of that?
In the 12-team Playoff world, where we don’t care about hurting the feelings of an unbeaten team that lost its star quarterback to a season-ending injury, Georgia would’ve been the No. 5-ranked team at the end of the season. FSU more than likely would’ve fallen behind all of the 1-loss teams (including Ohio State), and settled in at No. 8 — but still able to host a Playoff game.
That would’ve left No. 11 Ole Miss playing at No. 6 Ohio State in a 1st-round game.
If that doesn’t affirm Kiffin’s plan to win at Ole Miss, I don’t know what does. If 2 seasons of 10 wins in the past 3 years doesn’t do it, how could a Playoff appearance not settle any argument?
3. New age buildout, The Epilogue
The guy everyone laughs at because he has a strong social media game is really the prototypical coach for an FBS program (not including, of course, Nick Saban and Kirby Smart).
He’s an elite recruiter, an innovative offensive mind, and now long past the early days of his career where he was known more for a kitschy vaudeville act than a beautiful football mind.
He can recruit, he can coach, and he can build. And he can retain: WR Tre Harris stayed for another season instead of leaving for the NFL, and more than likely QB Jaxson Dart will, too. RB Quinshon Judkins stayed at Ole Miss when he could’ve played anywhere.
Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. stayed, and defensive coordinator Pete Golding stayed and is finally beginning to step out of Saban’s shadow on his own terms.
The only question now: Now long can Ole Miss keep Kiffin? At some point, a program with a better geographic high school recruiting footprint (hello, Florida) will come along and offer everything he could possible need.
You may not like the sound of that, Ole Miss. But the truth often arrives with a hammer.
4. Stay or go
Georgia QB Carson Beck said this past weekend that he’s playing in the Orange Bowl — but that the decision to play at Georgia in 2024 is still an active process.
“I’m not sure yet,” Beck said at an impromptu press conference while filming an Academy Sports commercial. “There’s not really a time limit. It’s the biggest decision of my life.”
For those who think Beck is using the NFL decision as leverage to get more NIL money from Georgia, consider this: an industry source close to Beck told SDS that Beck genuinely “doesn’t know what he wants to do.”
Beck, the source said, already has a “significant” deal on the table to return to Georgia, and could likely get “whatever he wanted” to return to school.
While Beck was clarifying his playing status for the Orange Bowl against Florida State, QB Dylan Raiola — the No. 1 player in the 2024 recruiting class, according to 247Sports — was visiting Nebraska and could soon commit to the Huskers. Raiola has been committed to Georgia.
The Georgia QB room has Beck, backup Gunner Stockton and incoming 4-star freshman Ryan Puglisi, who is already enrolled. If Beck leaves, the room is limited.
Georgia is recruiting the transfer portal for a quarterback, but the uncertainty with Beck’s decision is likely preventing the Bulldogs from signing an impact quarterback.
5. The Weekly 5
The 5 biggest disappointments of the 2023 season.
1. The LSU defense. The worst in more than a decade, and the reason the Tigers couldn’t capitalize on having the best player in college football.
2. The Tennessee passing game. Blame who you want; there’s plenty to go around. It didn’t look like coach Josh Heupel’s pass offenses of the past 2 seasons (and at UCF).
3. The entire Florida team. Structurally and operationally a mess.
4. The Kentucky passing game. Too much talent — WRs Dane Key, Barion Brown, Tayvion Robinson — for the Wildcats to finish 11th in the SEC.
5. Georgia’s inability to play for a 3rd straight national title. We all wanted to see it, and Georgia would still be favored against every team in the Playoff.
6. Your tape is your resume
An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Georgia OT Amarius Mims.
“Still don’t know if he’s more of a right tackle than left. He’s more refined now as a run blocker. A big strong guy who can engage and move. But he also tends to rely too much on his length and athleticism in (pass block) sets. You can’t always get away with that (in the NFL). Just on frame and athleticism, and tape, he’s going to start out on the left side. He’s a high pick, more than likely Day 1.”
7. Powered Up
This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing.
1. Alabama: Tide coach Nick Saban hired former Michigan assistant George Helow as an analyst. A sign that Saban is concerned about Michigan — or due diligence?
2. Georgia: Does Beck’s decision to play in the bowl game impact other draft eligible players to stay and do the same?
3. Missouri: The athletic Missouri defensive front against an Ohio State offensive with a backup quarterback. Can’t wait.
4. Ole Miss: Can the Rebels take advantage of Penn State’s coaching staff instability (new offensive and defensive coordinators)?
5. LSU: Here’s hoping QB Jayden Daniels plays it smart and opts out of the ReliaQuest Bowl and begins to prepare for an NFL career.
6. Tennessee: Vols need to play freshman QB Nico Iamaleava in the Citrus Bowl. He doesn’t have to start, but he needs to play early. This game is as much about the future of Tennessee as it is sending off the 2023 team with a win.
7. Kentucky: Getting Brock Vandagriff from the portal wasn’t the biggest offseason move. Keeping Key and Brown was.
8. Texas A&M: Can’t imagine new Aggies coach Mike Elko signing off on bringing in former K-State QB Will Howard to reunite with OC Collin Klein. If that happens, QB Conner Weigman won’t be around much longer.
9. Auburn: You know what you have in Payton Thorne. Why not play Holden Geriner, the most talented thrower on the roster, in the Music City Bowl?
10. South Carolina: Raheim Sanders could’ve played anywhere he wanted, and for a big winner. He chose South Carolina. That says plenty about the staff’s ability to recruit.
11. Florida: Why are we not hearing much from Florida in the portal? Because the staff is trying to hold together the 2024 recruiting class for 1 more week.
12. Mississippi State: New coach Jeff Lebby is focusing on the lines of scrimmage in the transfer portal. Smartest move he has made since arriving in Starkville.
13. Arkansas: It’s no surprise that Boise State struggled its bowl game without QB Taylen Green, who before committing to the Hogs, played well for a majority of the past 2 seasons — despite the mishandling of the position in 2023.
14. Vanderbilt: Unless coach Clark Lea hits it big in the portal, 2024 could be the most historically inept Vanderbilt team in years. And that’s saying plenty.
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt: We’re all trying to believe in Brent Venables. He says all the right things, and he’s consistently recruiting the top 10 players. Can OU win big with Venables? — Cary Brown, Dallas.
Cary:
Once you get to the level of an elite job — which Oklahoma most certainly is — there’s no such thing as waiting and hoping. It must happen now.
Venables knows that, and the turn this season was a big start: 10 wins in Year 2 was a strong follow-up to a 6-7 record last year. The Sooners lost both games this season by a combined 8 points, and 7 of the 9 losses under Venables have been 1-possession games.
OU is 3-7 in 1-possession games under Venables, the games the Sooners owned in the heyday of former coach Bob Stoops. The problem now: There’s heavy lifting ahead. The move to the SEC changes everything, beginning next season.
While it helps that the Playoff expands to 12 teams, unless the SEC and Big Ten get their way (and they very well could), there will still be automatic qualifying spots in the Playoff awarded to the ACC, Big 12 and the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion for the 2024-25 Playoff seasons.
Unless the format becomes 12 at-large selections (which the SEC and Big Ten want now, but more than likely won’t get until 2026), OU and every other SEC team will be competing for 9 spots. The Playoff will be the true demarcation line for all SEC coaches.
Consistently miss the Playoff, and you won’t last long at your job. Especially an elite job.
In a 12-team format with automatic qualifiers, OU misses this year’s Playoff. In a 12 at-large selections format, OU would be the last team in — and play a 1st-round game at Florida State.
9. Numbers
6. If this year’s Playoff were a 12-team, all at-large format using the 2024 conference alignment, the SEC would have 6 teams — including Texas and Oklahoma.
That’s 6 of the 12 Playoff teams from 1 conference. Meanwhile, the Big Ten would’ve had 5 teams in the Playoff (Michigan, Washington, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State).
And that’s the concern of the ACC, Big 12 and Group of 5 conferences. The Playoff, in an at-large format, will become an SEC vs. Big Ten tournament.
That very scenario was part of a thinly-veiled threat lobbed nearly 2 years ago by SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, when the Alliance first began playing shell games to slow down the 12-team Playoff.
Sankey declared the SEC could have its own Playoff, and it would draw better ratings than anything the rest of college football could cobble together.
There are many industry experts who believe the SEC and Big Ten could combine media rights and form an exclusive league with its own Playoff — and make a monetary killing in the open market that would be shared by 2 conferences, not 9 or 10.
We may already be there beginning in 2024 — only the billions in media rights will be shared by all.
10. Quote to note
Georgia coach Kirby Smart on playing Florida State in the Orange Bowl: “I always worry about when you get in bowl games, the matchups you get to have. This matchup is really exciting. I know our players are pumped and excited when they found out who we get to play.”
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB