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The Heisman Trophy has been dominated by quarterbacks in recent years.
Following former Alabama RB Derrick Henry’s win in 2015, QBs won the next four from 2016-19 (Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow). Another Bama non-QB, DeVonta Smith, interrupted the run of QBs by winning college football’s top individual award in 2020. Quarterbacks, though, are back on a three-year streak (Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels), to make it 7 of the last 8 entering 2024.
We’re still more than a week out from the first snaps of the 2024 college football season, but some bettors aren’t waiting for the games to be played. BetMGM shared betting data with Saturday Down South on Wednesday, and QBs are the Heisman odds leaders and popular picks.
At BetMGM, Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel is the preseason favorite, priced at +700. At current odds, a $100 wager on Gabriel would win $700 for an $800 payout if he wins the award.
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Gabriel is entering Year 6 of his college career. He began his career at UCF in 2019. The 2020 season, in which he threw for 3,570 yards and a career-high 32 touchdowns, did not count against his eligibility due to the COVID pandemic. He suffered a season-ending injury that limited him to just 3 appearances, allowing him to take a redshirt.
Gabriel enters 2024 having completed 63.1% of his career passes for 14,865 yards with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 125-26. He has also added 26 scores on the ground. He’s coming off a 2023 season at Oklahoma in which he posted career-highs of 69.3% passes complete for 3,660 yards. He accounted for 30 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing scores, helping the Sooners go 10-2.
BetMGM Heisman Trophy line movement (open, current)
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Dillon Gabriel: +800, +700
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Carson Beck: +800, +750
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Jaxson Dart: +2000, +1200
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Shedeur Sanders: +2500, +3000
While the oddsmakers have Gabriel as the favorite, no player has received even 10% of BetMGM’s action at this point. Gabriel has been backed slightly more than a pair of SEC quarterbacks.
BetMGM Heisman Trophy Highest Ticket% (number of bets)
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Dillon Gabriel 9.8%
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Quinn Ewers 9.6%
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Carson Beck 8.7%
When it comes to the amount of money bet at BetMGM, Gabriel’s lead in the betting action is more noticeable. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders is a curious case in preseason action. Sanders accounts for just 4.5% of the tickets, but 10.4% of the handle, ahead of Texas QB Quinn Ewers.
BetMGM Heisman Trophy Highest Handle% (money bet)
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Dillon Gabriel 15.6%
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Shedeur Sanders 10.4%
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Quinn Ewers 9.8%
Interestingly enough, Gabriel and Sanders are not currently the biggest liability for BetMGM. That title goes to Sanders’ Colorado teammate Travis Hunter, who is priced at +5000.
BetMGM Heisman Trophy Biggest Liability
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Travis Hunter
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Shedeur Sanders
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Dillon Gabriel
Worth an early wager?
Who’s the best preseason bet for the race? FOX Sports betting analyst Sam Panayotovich warns against going with the favorites.
Panayotovich likes Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart. Dart is priced at +1200 at BetMGM and has generated 6.8% of the tickets for 6.5% of the handle.
Panayotovich’s colleague, Will Hill, highlighted Alabama QB Jalen Milroe, and named Arch Manning as a potential dark horse. BetMGM has Milroe priced at +1000, generating 5.1% of the book’s tickets for 5.5% of the handle.
Hill isn’t the first to think of Manning as this year’s potential Heisman winner. Manning is priced at +10000 at BetMGM, producing 1.4% of tickets for 0.3% of the handle.
“I saw this stat that the Heisman favorite has only won once in the last nine years. So this an award where you don’t want to take Dillon Gabriel or Carson Beck.” @spshoot and @NotTheeWillHill give their picks for who you should be putting money on to win the Heisman
— Bear Bets Podcast (@BearBetsPod) August 14, 2024
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
