What you’re about to read might sound like a rip on the people who are forced to evaluate NFL prospects for a living.

It’s not. I promise.

It is, however, pointing out that the way-too-early mock drafts that come out for the following year immediately after draft weekend concludes are just that. Way too early.

Todd McShay always says that it’s his least favorite thing to do every year, and understandably so. But it’s something that gets conversations started, whether he’s way off or not. These analysts just had to evaluate roughly 500 NFL Draft prospects — they evaluate the un-drafted ones, too — and chances are, they probably only have a few games of film on someone who earns a spot in a way-too-early mock.

In McShay’s defense, he actually did pretty well last year. Thirteen of his 32 first-round picks ended up coming off the board in Round 1. That’s pretty solid.

But I remember 3 years ago when McShay came out with his way-too-early mock draft for 2017 and Minnesota fans were stunned to see Mitch Leidner in the first round. Leidner, who wasn’t even one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Ten, was 6-4, 230 pounds and he was a multi-year starter who played well on the road at Ohio State the year before. Clearly, the latter part of that sentence meant everything in that projection. As it turned out, Leidner went undrafted and we all carried on with our lives.

So I decided to look back at some guys from the 2019 class who, like Leidner, were head-scratchers when they appeared in way-too-early 2019 mock drafts at this time a year ago, and ultimately turned out to be just that.

QB Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State

Publication: Bleacher Report

Slot: No. 22

What happened: Look, I’m a big supporter in what Matt Miller does. The dude is fantastic at his job, he’s a great follow on Twitter (@NFLDraftScout) and he usually can talk me into a lot of these guys. But Fitzgerald as a first-rounder? We knew that wasn’t going to happen based on how 1-dimensional he was, and that’s coming from me, perhaps the biggest Joe Moorhead believer there is. Fitzgerald always struggled with accuracy. NFL teams thought he’d be better at different positions and he ultimately went undrafted. Was Fitzgerald a great college quarterback? Absolutely. But the accuracy issues shouldn’t have made anyone think he was on a first-round track heading into 2018.

QB Jake Bentley, South Carolina

Publication: ESPN

Slot: No. 3 quarterback

What happened: To be fair, this actually wasn’t from a way-too-early mock draft. It was a preseason ranking on the 2019 draft prospects that was published in August. But man, I forgot just how in love with Bentley people were. Bentley looked like at one point he’d lose his starting job last year, and while he showed flashes, the consistency still isn’t there. That’s why he’s back for his senior year … and only at No. 9 among SEC quarterbacks in my rankings.

LB Natrez Patrick, Georgia

Publication: ESPN

Slot: No. 3 inside linebacker

What happened: Again, this was also from McShay’s August ranking on the 2019 draft prospects. Here’s the thing. Patrick had a ton to prove in 2018. He had 3 marijuana-related incidents and he spent the Rose Bowl at a rehab facility instead of making plays. Patrick, to his credit, stayed out of trouble in 2018 after Kirby Smart let him rejoin the team. But even with that happening, Patrick still went undrafted. Given his history, the first-round projection was a head-scratcher even if he were to have the ultimate redemption season. But that didn’t happen.

DL Raekwon Davis, Alabama

Publication: CBS Sports, ESPN, Sporting News

Slot: No. 13 in CBS, No. 13 in Mel Kiper’s way-too-early big board, No. 14 in Sporting News

What happened: We were super high on Davis last year, so at the time, this wasn’t really that far out-of-line. Projecting an Alabama defensive lineman to go in the first round is usually a no-brainer. Just ask Quinnen Williams about that. But Davis had a lot of hype because of how well he performed in the Playoff, and the consistency issues didn’t sort themselves out in 2018. Davis took a back seat to Williams and he decided to return for his senior year.

OL Beau Benzschawel, Wisconsin

Publication: ESPN, Sporting News

Slot: No. 20 in ESPN, No. 13 in Sporting News

What happened: The irony of that Sporting News projection is that it compared Benzschawel to basically a less-talented version of Quenton Nelson. Nelson, of course, went on to become an All-Pro as a rookie in 2018 and Benzschawel wound up being an un-drafted free agent. Nobody is never going to be mocked for putting a Wisconsin offensive lineman in the first round, nor should they be. But pass-protecting and strength were considered weaknesses during the pre-draft process. It’s a reminder that even sure-looking things like Wisconsin offensive linemen can sometimes be whiffs.

LB Te’Von Coney, Notre Dame

Publication: CBS Sports

Slot: No. 15

What happened: Coney was another guy who was projected as a mid-first rounder who went undrafted. The weird thing was Coney actually had a solid year. He was third-team All-American for a Notre Dame squad that made the Playoff for the first time. But that speaks to why the projection was off to begin with. Coney had issues in coverage throughout his career and he had a marijuana arrest in 2016. The pre-draft process hurt him even more when he couldn’t participate in the Combine tests.

WR Juwan Johnson, Penn State

Publication: Sporting News

Slot: No. 7

What happened: Those who have been following Penn State have been waiting on Johnson to become the next great Lions weapon for what feels like a decade. Why? He’s 6-4, 231 pounds and he’s made some unbelievable catches in his college career. But at the time of that projection, the guy had just 1 career touchdown catch (it was the walk-off winner vs. Iowa in 2017). Johnson struggled with drops in 2018 and after an underwhelming fourth season at Penn State, he transferred to Oregon for his final year of eligibility. The first-round buzz is gone, but don’t be surprised if he shows up on SportsCenter a few times:

QB Clayton Thorson, Northwestern

Publication: Bleacher Report

Slot: No. 14

What happened: Thorson and Fitzgerald got the Leidner treatment. They were all big, multi-year starters who could move pretty well for guys at their size. But again, as much as I respect Miller’s opinion, I didn’t understand this evaluation for a variety of reasons. Thorson was coming off a torn ACL in the bowl game, he had never averaged either 7 yards per attempt or completed 61% of his passes in 3 years as a starter. But he had that aforementioned trio, and he had some good experience in an NFL-type system making reads. Thorson fell to the fifth round, which wasn’t a surprise. He has “NFL backup” written all over him.

CB Lukas Denis, Boston College

Publication: ESPN

Slot: No. 14

What happened: McShay knows Boston College well, but the Denis projection probably didn’t earn him any local love. Denis led the ACC in interceptions in 2017, but he had just 1 pick in 2018, and it came in the season opener against UMass (he returned it for a touchdown). His production took a major hit, which isn’t necessarily McShay’s fault, but to have a top-15 pick go un-drafted is always a tough look.

QB Jarrett Stidham, Auburn QB

Publication: The Big Lead

Slot: No. 4

What happened: Gus Malzahn’s offense happened. OK, that was mean. Stidham’s fall out of the early projections wasn’t entirely because of Malzahn. Stidham’s decision-making struggled and Auburn’s running game — or lack there of — didn’t help him very much. I highlighted “The Big Lead” ranking just because it was the highest I saw of Stidham in the early projections, though several had him as a late-first round pick. I was definitely high on Stidham before last year as well, but a top 5 pick? That seemed like a bit much.