With the first round of CFP rankings now public, it’s time to look at the paths of the top 10 teams as they hope to make their way to college football’s Final Four. Unlike that other Final Four, where the top-ranked teams should always have the easiest path, in football it’s just not so.

So we’ll break down who has a smooth road to the Playoff, whose road is bumpy but navigable, and whose road is a dead end.

Two things to remember: First, in both years of the CFP a team from outside the initial Top 10 has made the playoff. Second, 5 of the eventual 8 playoff teams came from outside the Top 4 in those first rankings. There’s a long way to go. Buckle up.

Smooth

Clemson (CFP No. 2): The tough games should be behind the Tigers, although they have often played down to competition. Matchups with Syracuse, Pitt and South Carolina at home, Wake Forest on the road, and Va. Tech or UNC in the ACC title game presents no big challenges to their playoff plans.

Washington (CFP No. 5): The story for Washington won’t be on the field, where the most challenging game left is probably Washington State in the regular season finale. Colorado (CFP No. 15) could await in the Pac-12 title game. But Washington’s biggest issue will be making sure that a one-loss team (Alabama, should it lose, or Texas A&M, or maybe Michigan, if it loses to Ohio State) doesn’t lap them. It would be incredibly unpopular for an undefeated Washington team to be left out, but it could happen, with their weak competition.

Bumpy

Alabama (CFP No. 1): Sure, the Tide have the top spot. But the path to the playoff goes through Auburn (No. 9 in the CFP rankings), LSU (No. 13), and potentially Florida (No. 11) in the SEC title game. The best news for ‘Bama is that one loss probably doesn’t knock them out.

Michigan (CFP No. 3): The Wolverines play at CFP No. 6 Ohio State to end the regular season, and could draw Nebraska (CFP No. 10) or Wisconsin (CFP No. 8) in the Big Ten title game. It’s been easy early for Michigan, but it gets tough in a hurry in three weeks.

Texas A&M (CFP No. 4): Barring two Bama losses, the Aggies won’t play a conference championship game. A home game against LSU could be an elimination game for the two teams … and the Aggies will need a little luck. It’s one thing for the CFP committee to jump A&M over unbeaten Washington in the first rankings, but if there are four unbeaten Power Five teams at the end of the season, the Aggies won’t take one of their spots.

Ohio State (CFP No. 6): Nebraska, Michigan, and possibly a Wisconsin rematch are a bumpy ride for the Buckeyes, who struggled last week against Northwestern. It’s not impossible — and it is keyed by the Michigan game — but it’s a tough run to make.

Auburn (CFP No. 9): A close loss to Clemson and a bad one to Texas A&M early could be redeemed by taking down Alabama (and perhaps Florida) to win the SEC. It’s a tall task, but Auburn has a shot, which was unthinkable after a 1-2 start.

Dead End

Louisville (CFP No. 7): Some weak opposition catches up with the Cardinals, who were just one completed pass from knocking off Clemson on the road and being undefeated. As such, Louisville needs two Clemson losses to win their division, which won’t happen. Absent that, Louisville just can’t make up much ground with a remaining scheduled highlighted by a decent, but unranked, Houston team. If there is a two-bid league, based on the first ranking, it will be the Big Ten or the SEC, not the ACC.

Wisconsin (CFP No. 8): As a two-loss team, Wisconsin’s only hope is to knock off an undefeated or one-loss team in a rematch the Big Ten title game. In order to get to the title game, the Badgers must win out and need Nebraska to lose again. Both could happen. There would be serious drama if the Badgers knocked off an undefeated Michigan team after losing to the Wolverines 14-7 in the regular season in Ann Arbor.

Nebraska (CFP No. 10): See Wisconsin, rinse, and repeat. I don’t think Nebraska’s hope survives a trip Ohio State this weekend. (The Huskers lost to Wisconsin, so the Badgers hold the tiebreaker.) If the ‘Skers do, it could get a lot more interesting. But I doubt it.