Ranking the contenders in the CFP
No need to predict or project because the first CFP rankings of the season are out.
A couple of quick takeaways from the initial Top 25.
Surprised: Washington State at No. 8 puts the Pac-12 back in play despite a pretty lackluster season for the conference. The Cougars’ pillow soft non-conference schedule of Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington was not held against them. With no Top 25 opponents scheduled the rest of the way it’s time to keep an eye on Washington State as a potential back-door playoff hope.
Sagarin strength of schedule ranking for the College Football Playoff Top 10 (Oct. 30):
1. Alabama (60)
2. Clemson (34)
3. LSU (6)
4. Notre Dame (45)
5. Michigan (23)
6. Georgia (28)
7. Oklahoma (36)
8. Washington State (55)
9. Kentucky (22)
10. Ohio State (57)— FBSchedules.com (@FBSchedules) October 30, 2018
Punished: Texas paid dearly for the 38-35 road loss to Oklahoma State. Texas still controls its destiny for the Big XII championship and has a game against No. 13 West Virginia coming up this week but clearly the committee did not respect Texas’ fairly respectable body of work.
Interesting: Oklahoma seems to always be a committee favorite because they get gaudy victories at the right time. That being said, the No. 7 ranking is a gift to a team that lost to Texas and has its best win at Iowa State. However, the Sooners might be the best competition for Alabama (including Clemson) because they have the offense to challenge the Crimson Tide’s only perceived weakness (the secondary). If Oklahoma can take care of business the committee will want to get them in at No. 4.
The Oklahoma ranking is one that spotlights the committee’s challenge. They are looking for the four best teams but also looking for the three teams that have the best chance to beat the No. 1 team.
ESPN analysts talking OU and CFP Rankings.
McShay: "Oklahoma scares me to death."
Pollack: "You better listen to those footsteps because they're comin'."#BoomerSooner pic.twitter.com/dMpPS934E9
— Sooner Gridiron (@soonergridiron) October 30, 2018
Now for the rankings.
The big four
1) Alabama
2) Clemson
3) LSU
4) Notre Dame
LSU gets the bump over Notre Dame based on a lot of quality wins over teams with winning records. Whether LSU is third or fourth shouldn’t matter; if the Tigers beat Alabama they will likely move to No. 1 and if they don’t they will be out of the title picture.
If you can justify LSU over Notre Dame, I don't understand why LSU isn't also above Clemson. But I guess the answer on that would be "eye test," which is the catch-all for moving the Ouija board to get the answer you want.
— Medium Happy (@jdubs88) October 31, 2018
The best of the rest
5) Michigan
An LSU loss puts Michigan squarely in “win and you’re in” territory. An LSU win makes things a heck of a lot more complicated. A 12-1 Michigan team with a Big 10 championship probably wouldn’t get the nod over an 11-1 Alabama team. However, a 12-1 Wolverines would get in over a 11-1 Notre Dame team in my opinion even though the Irish hold the head-to-head victory.
6) Georgia
The Bulldogs will be in the top four if they can win out and win the SEC championship against Alabama/LSU. A second loss, however, would eliminate Georgia.
7) Oklahoma
Oklahoma needs to win and needs at least two of the top four teams to lose. One will definitely lose this week and that would put the Big XII heavily in the mix.
8) Washington State
Even though the Cougars are ranked higher than expected, their resume doesn’t match up as well with the teams ahead of them or behind them. The Pac-12 looks like the weakest of the Power 5 and Washington State isn’t going to dominate games enough to make up for that perception.
9) Kentucky
What do you do with Kentucky? The ranking seems to be a bit high but it’s fair.
C’mon…. did any one person who watched UK the last month have any input in this? The Cats are a great story, but No. 9? Nah. https://t.co/9Ucq0gufPa
— Dallas Jackson (@DallasAJackson) October 31, 2018
So where do you put them? 20th? And then what happens if they upset Georgia on Saturday, they would just jump 12-15 spots? This seems like the right place for Kentucky. And with a win Saturday the Wildcats would certainly be in a position to jump Washington State and possibly move into the top five.
10) Ohio State
Down but not out, the Buckeyes need to continue winning and hope Michigan continues to win so that showdown on Nov. 24 is as appealing as possible.
Still worth mentioning
11) Florida
A bit of a surprise that the Gators were rated the highest of the two-loss teams, especially with two double-digit losses with one at home. Without a path to the SEC championship game, there aren’t any more opportunities for Florida to impress the committee enough to move up.
12) UCF
The Knights are in position to make another New Year’s Day 6 bowl but their schedule is far too weak for much more than that without a serious rash of losses.
At this point, given they have one of the worst SOS in the nation to this point, UCF fans should be thrilled with 12. Impressive wins over Temple, Cincinnati and USF will help, as will teams losing ahead of them. Top 4 is an extreme long shot, but Top 6 might not be.
— Ryan Bass (@Ry_Bass) October 30, 2018
13) West Virginia
The Mountaineers had the shine taken off of their game against Texas this week but they could still jump several teams if they can win out and make the Big XII championship game.
My beautiful chaos playoff that will absolutely happen.
1. Washington State
2. Kentucky
3. West Virginia
4. UCF— Adam Kramer (@KegsnEggs) October 30, 2018
14) Penn State
15) Utah
16) Iowa
17) Texas
All four teams are in contention for NYD6 bowls but there’s no clear path to the playoff without a rash of losses from the top teams in the final month of the season.