SEC Bowl Projections after Week 10: The race is on

Jim Tomlin | 4 months ago

The SEC Championship Game is all set: Alabama vs. Georgia on Dec. 1 in Atlanta in a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff Championship thriller.

Saturday’s games led to a couple of alterations to our projections.

This is just a gut feeling, but based on Saturday’s results I now think Georgia — assuming the Dawgs lose to the Crimson Tide but win the rest — just nudges LSU for the Sugar Bowl spot. Yes, LSU won head-to-head. But if Georgia stays closer to Alabama than LSU just did, or about the same, I think the Dawgs will be rewarded for winning the East Division, especially the way they did it.

Besides, the Fiesta Bowl is a decent consolation prize for LSU.

Here’s the thinking: We think four SEC teams will still get into the New Year’s Day 6 bowls. The CFP’s initial rankings leave little doubt. Assuming LSU doesn’t lose again and UGA only loses to Alabama, UGA and LSU are locks for major bowls (and the Crimson Tide is still the No. 1 seed in the CFP semifinals, obviously).

Of course, the Rose Bowl is a no-go for the SEC this year, so the league’s top three non-CFP teams will go to the Sugar, Fiesta and Peach in some order. And the SEC team now headed to the Peach?

Welcome, Kentucky. Here’s a good spot for our weekly reminder that these projections are based on where we think teams will be after Dec. 1, not where they are now.

Kentucky moves into the major bowl scene even after losing to Georgia, simply because I didn’t think Kentucky was going to win that game anyway. Saturday’s result did not change my opinion of Kentucky; I still think the Wildcats will finish 10-2. Where my opinion changed was on Florida. After the Gators lost badly against Missouri at The Swamp, UF moves out of the NYD6 picture and down to the Citrus Bowl.

Down lower, things shuffle a little but, again as a reminder, the next six bowls in the pecking order after the Citrus are all considered to be on the same level.

So, the latest SEC bowl projections:

CFP Semifinal (Orange Bowl)
December 29, 2018
Miami, FL
vs.

Sugar Bowl
January 1, 2019
New Orleans, LA
vs.

Fiesta Bowl
January 1, 2019
Glendale, AZ
vs.

Peach Bowl
December 29, 2018
Atlanta, GA
vs.

Citrus Bowl
January 1, 2019
Orlando, FL
vs.

Outback Bowl
January 1, 2019
Tampa, FL
vs.

TaxSlayer Bowl
December 31, 2018
Jacksonville, FL
vs.

Liberty Bowl
December 31, 2018
Memphis, TN
vs.

Belk Bowl
December 29, 2018
Charlotte, NC
vs.

Music City Bowl
December 28, 2018
Nashville, TN
vs.

Texas Bowl
December 27, 2018
Houston, TX
vs.

2017-2018 POSTSEASON
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
26
vs.
23

CFP SEMIFINAL (SUGAR BOWL)
24
vs.
6

CFP SEMIFINAL (ROSE BOWL)
54
vs.
48

PEACH BOWL
27
vs.
34

CITRUS BOWL
21
vs.
17

OUTBACK BOWL
26
vs.
19

TAXSLAYER BOWL
31
vs.
27

MUSIC CITY BOWL
23
vs.
24

BELK BOWL
52
vs.
55

TEXAS BOWL
33
vs.
16

The

Comments Section (Hot Takes Welcome!)

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  • So, who is on the outside looking in if the projected top 4 win out (Clem,ND, Mich) and IF (notice the caps making this conjecture) Bama loses a close SECCG to UGA

  • Kentucky, please beat UCF….

  • Oklahoma in the playoff? Eh……

    #wewantucf

  • As a Georgia fan if rather get booted to the Fiesta Bowl if its against Ohio State.

    West Virginia doesn’t excite me a bit. I’d like to play OSU for the recruiting angle and the fact we haven’t been to the Fiesta and it’s been forever since we’ve played OSU. I also want to beat Meyer badly.

  • Tennessee gets to six wins? Maybe they beat Vandy but Missouri as well? I don’t see that happening. And it must be Missouri you have them beating since you see Kentucky going 10-2. I don’t understand that logic, especially with what Missouri did to Florida Saturday.

  • Omg nooooooo. Plzzz no UCF vs. Kentucky. Shoot me now.

  • COTTON: Alabama vs Michigan
    ORANGE: Clemson vs Notre Dame
    ROSE: Washington State vs Ohio State
    SUGAR: Georgia vs Oklahoma
    FIESTA: LSU vs West Virginia
    PEACH: Kentucky vs UCF
    CITRUS: Florida vs Penn State
    OUTBACK: Mississippi State vs Iowa
    GATOR: Auburn vs Northwestern
    MUSIC CITY: Mizzou vs Syracuse
    BELK: South Carolina vs Virginia Tech
    TEXAS: Texas A&M vs Texas Tech

    • Excellent call with Ohio State. Not sure who this site thinks would be in the Rose Bowl.

      • I assumed Michigan since they have Bama vs Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. Don’t see Oklahoma making it in if Michigan wins out though. They’re already at number 4 and blew out Penn State. Meanwhile Oklahoma will play the same team back-to-back (West Virginia). Not as much opportunity to impress.

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