SEC Bowl Projections after Week 10: The race is on

The SEC Championship Game is all set: Alabama vs. Georgia on Dec. 1 in Atlanta in a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff Championship thriller.

Saturday’s games led to a couple of alterations to our projections.

This is just a gut feeling, but based on Saturday’s results I now think Georgia — assuming the Dawgs lose to the Crimson Tide but win the rest — just nudges LSU for the Sugar Bowl spot. Yes, LSU won head-to-head. But if Georgia stays closer to Alabama than LSU just did, or about the same, I think the Dawgs will be rewarded for winning the East Division, especially the way they did it.

Besides, the Fiesta Bowl is a decent consolation prize for LSU.

Here’s the thinking: We think four SEC teams will still get into the New Year’s Day 6 bowls. The CFP’s initial rankings leave little doubt. Assuming LSU doesn’t lose again and UGA only loses to Alabama, UGA and LSU are locks for major bowls (and the Crimson Tide is still the No. 1 seed in the CFP semifinals, obviously).

Of course, the Rose Bowl is a no-go for the SEC this year, so the league’s top three non-CFP teams will go to the Sugar, Fiesta and Peach in some order. And the SEC team now headed to the Peach?

Welcome, Kentucky. Here’s a good spot for our weekly reminder that these projections are based on where we think teams will be after Dec. 1, not where they are now.

Kentucky moves into the major bowl scene even after losing to Georgia, simply because I didn’t think Kentucky was going to win that game anyway. Saturday’s result did not change my opinion of Kentucky; I still think the Wildcats will finish 10-2. Where my opinion changed was on Florida. After the Gators lost badly against Missouri at The Swamp, UF moves out of the NYD6 picture and down to the Citrus Bowl.

Down lower, things shuffle a little but, again as a reminder, the next six bowls in the pecking order after the Citrus are all considered to be on the same level.

So, the latest SEC bowl projections: