SEC QB Power Rankings, Week 1: It's Mac Jones' time at Alabama, but Bryce Young's is coming
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, SEC QB Power Rankings will help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-14 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct.
1. KJ Costello, Mississippi State
KJ Costello facts: He was born and raised in California, he broke Carson Palmer’s high school passing records at Santa Margarita Catholic, and earlier this year he became the first person ever with a bachelor’s degree from Stanford to opt for grad school in Starkville. (Feel free to fact-check that last one.) In the absence of any clearly established stars among returning SEC starters, he also begins the season as the best bet to separate himself from the pack.
Admittedly, that has as much to do with the prolific track record of Mike Leach’s Air Raid attack than it does with Costello’s tenure as the starter at Stanford, which ended prematurely due to injuries and ineffectiveness in 2019 as the Cardinal offense collapsed in a heap. Still, he was considered one of the most sought-after players on the grad-transfer market last winter for a reason: He started out as a major recruit, he was arguably the best quarterback in the Pac-12 in 2018 (his only full season as a starter), and he remains very much on the radar of pro scouts hoping to see a return to his sophomore form.
He purposefully chose to follow Leach to Mississippi State after seeing his system up close — Leach’s Washington State teams were 4-0 vs. Stanford in Costello’s years there, including a 41-38 shootout in 2018 in which Costello threw for 323 yards and 4 TDs in a losing effort — and he’ll be the most highly-touted QB in Leach’s offense since Tim Couch at Kentucky in the late 1990s.
Plenty of other variables figure into that equation, too, including Costello’s health (his issues last year began with a concussion) and the status of the surrounding cast. But as long as he remains upright, the basic premise of the arrangement and the gonzo stat lines that come with it should translate just fine.
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2. Mac Jones or Bryce Young, Alabama
It’s a lot easier to cast Jones as a mere placeholder in this race than it should be. He looked like the real deal at the end of last season in his audition to succeed Tua Tagovailoa. Yes, there was the one legitimately bad interception in the Iron Bowl loss to Auburn, in addition to the fluky one that everyone remembers; otherwise, though, he didn’t miss a beat, finishing the year with 14 TDs to 3 INTs, a stellar efficiency rating (186.8), and a handful of highlight-reel throws. The offense continued to roll in his 3 FBS starts, hanging 48 points on Arkansas, 45 on Auburn, and 35 on Michigan in the bowl game.
So it’s no surprise that Jones is atop the depth chart for Saturday’s opener at Missouri, and it won’t be a surprise if he stays there for the rest of the year. Hell, he could very easily turn out to be the best quarterback in the SEC.
That said … when a talent as hyped as Young is involved, it’s usually safe to assume it’s a when-not-if situation. Young may not be as far along at this point as he’d hoped after missing out on spring practice due to the pandemic. But he will likely command plenty of reps in blowouts, and once he’s up to speed it’s easy to imagine a point at which – a la Tua in his freshman season in 2017, or Trevor Lawrence in ’18 – his potential is just too obvious to ignore. As a rule, this generation of 5-star quarterbacks does not sign up to wait their turn.
Of course, if Young is destined to supplant Jones this year, ideally it will be on the Lawrence timeline, a month or so into the season, rather than at halftime of the dang national championship game. Jones’ performance will obviously have a lot to do with that, especially in an Oct. 17 date with Georgia that will test his viability against a Playoff-caliber defense. If he passes, he’ll likely be entrenched for the long run. If not, expect the torch to be passed sooner rather than later (if hasn’t already by then). As usual when it comes to Alabama position battles, this is a good problem to have.
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3. Kyle Trask, Florida
Before Feleipe Franks’ season-ending ankle injury last September, Trask’s college career was on schedule to end just like his high school career: With Trask sitting all 4 years behind a more touted starter. Once his opportunity arrived, though, he seized it, emerging as a steadier hand behind center than Franks had ever been, and eventually as Florida’s most productive quarterback since Tim Tebow for a top-10 team that clinched an 11-win season in the Orange Bowl.
That may not be enough to make him a coveted prospect at the next level — although it might, depending on whom you ask — but it does make Trask the entrenched starter going into a new season for the first time since he started playing organized football. The Gators’ chances of surpassing Georgia in the East hinge largely on Trask’s arm and decision-making, both of which inspire significantly more confidence than anyone at this time last year could have guessed.
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4. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
At this point in his career, Mond is who he is: A talented but inconsistent passer who’s unlikely to make a great leap forward as a senior. But it would be nice if he had a little more help from his surrounding cast. Mond accounted for 2/3 of A&M’s total offense in 2019, the 2nd-highest individual share in the SEC behind only Joe Burrow, and for an astounding 86% of the total in the Aggies’ 5 losses — a direct result of both a) an anemic ground game vs. upper-crust defenses, and b) big deficits in each of those games that forced the offense to abandon the run altogether and rely almost solely on Mond’s arm after halftime.
Jimbo Fisher’s offense isn’t designed for that level of imbalance, and the outlook on that front isn’t much better in 2020. The top 4 wideouts in last year’s rotation are all out of the picture, having either declared early for the draft (Kendrick Rogers, Quartney Davis), opted out of the season (Jhamon Ausbon), or been ruled out due to injury (Camron Buckley). The remaining receivers who saw the field combined for all of 6 receptions. Sophomores Isaiah Spiller and Jalen Wydermyer flashed as true freshmen at running back and tight end, respectively, but almost everyone else who’ll touch the ball this season will be new. Maybe somewhere in that cast there’s an unsung star in the making. More likely, Mond is on the hook for more of the same.
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5. Bo Nix, Auburn
Year 1 of the Bo Nix era at Auburn opened on a high note, with a dramatic, last-second win vs. Oregon in the season-opener, and closed on even higher one – a 48-45 triumph over Alabama in an instant-classic edition of the rivalry. Everything in between? Well … let’s just say beating Bama as a true freshman tends to render everything else kind of a blur.
There were other glimpses along the way of the potential that made Nix a 5-star recruit. He looked the part in blowout wins over Mississippi State and Arkansas. He quickly resolved his early turnover issues, going INT-free after Halloween, and was the coaches’ choice in December for SEC Freshman of the Year. As a team, Auburn improved on its dismal 2018 scoring average in SEC play by a solid 9 points per game. Still, the overall picture was one of a work very much in progress, especially against the top half of the schedule. Nix turned in his worst outings in losses to Florida, LSU and Georgia, and ultimately finished in bottom half of the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt and overall efficiency.
Par for the course for a rookie, even one as hyped as Nix. But the prospect of a sophomore surge comes with a caveat, too: Just how high is the ceiling as a long-term starter? On the optimistic side, Auburn fans have every reason to expect the light to come on sooner rather than later – it’s easy to imagine an older, more confident Nix emerging from the pack in Year 2 as one of the SEC’s savviest and most efficient passers. Athletically, though, the jury remains out. For a blue-chip prospect, there wasn’t much beyond the numbers that pointed to a vast reserve of untapped, next-level talent. Surge or no surge, there’s a good chance that the version of Nix the Tigers get in 2020 is essentially the finished product.
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6. JT Daniels or D’Wan Mathis, Georgia
It’s probably unfair to say the Bulldogs had given up on Mathis as a viable contender to replace Jake Fromm, but they certainly weren’t counting on him. In fact, for most of his first year on campus, it was unclear whether he would ever play football again after undergoing emergency brain surgery in May 2019 to remove a cyst; he subsequently sat out all of last season and wasn’t officially cleared for contact until February — just in time for a spring session that was abruptly canceled. By then, Fromm was well on the way out for the draft and Georgia had already added its presumptive 2020 starter, Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman, who spent the offseason being talked up as a dark-horse Heisman candidate. With the addition of Daniels, a redshirt sophomore with 3 years of eligibility remaining and his choice of transfer destinations, as well as true freshman Carson Beck, Mathis was beginning to look like the odd man out in the team’s long-term plans.
As the season looms, though, the best-laid plans have given way to a situation in which Mathis has emerged as both the sentimental and practical favorite to start Saturday’s opener at Arkansas. Newman opted out of the season at the start of the month; meanwhile, Daniels, although he has practiced in a limited capacity, has yet to be cleared for full contact on the surgically repaired knee that cost him the entire 2019 campaign at USC. His status could be a game-time decision, or it could turn out that the decision has already been made in favor of Mathis, who has reportedly come on strong in recent practices while taking a majority of the first-team reps.
One way or the other, there is some urgency to settle on the best available option and get him up to speed as quickly as possible. No one is sweating a trip to Fayetteville, but on the other side of that is a 3-game stretch against Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama that offers no margin for a learning curve.
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7. Myles Brennan, LSU
For a guy who’s been in the fold as long as he has, Brennan remains a remarkably blank slate. After 3 years backing up Danny Etling and Joe Burrow, Saturday’s trip to Mississippi State will not only mark his first career start: It will be his first notable action outside of garbage time.
Fortunately for him, the pressure of following Joe Burrow is mitigated somewhat by the fact that no one in their right minds expects him to look anything remotely like Joe Burrow. Burrow so thoroughly demolished the existing standard for LSU quarterbacks that what would have been considered a banner season a year ago now qualifies as a significant drop-off. Imagine, for example, that Brennan throws 30 touchdown passes, am ambitious but plausible mark that no Tiger QB had ever hit prior to 2019; now, that same number will only get him halfway to Burrow’s insurmountable record (60 TD passes in a single season still blows my mind. 60!). A high bar looks mediocre by comparison.
It doesn’t help Brennan’s case, either, that rest of the starting offense is also brand new outside of WR Terrace Marshall Jr. and LT Austin Deculus. Factor in the departure of passing-game savant Joe Brady for the NFL, and the preliminary needle is pointing to “average SEC starter.” We’ll have a clearer idea of which direction it’s moving and how quickly soon enough.
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8. Feleipe Franks, Arkansas
At Florida, Franks almost always came out looking better on paper than his erratic reputation suggested, and although he was clearly the odd man out after last season, he represents an obvious upgrade to what has been the league’s most consistently depressing position over the past 2 years. Under Chad Morris, the Razorbacks churned through 8 starters who collectively went 4-20 overall and 0-16 in the SEC. By contrast, landing a former blue-chip recruit who oversaw a 13-3 record with the Gators in the same span was a major coup.
At 6-6, 228 pounds, Franks is an automatic NFL prospect with the raw arm strength and baseline athleticism to back it up. His decision-making and accuracy, on the other hand, leave a lot to be desired. His last coach, Dan Mullen, deserves credit for rehabbing a guy who looked broken at the end of his redshirt freshman campaign in 2017 into a viable starter whose upside remained intact; at the same time, Franks’ inability to unlock that potential with any kind of consistency was maddening. He’s yet to throw for 300 yards in a game, and only 52 of his 354 career completions have gone for 20+ yards.
Downfield opportunities should increase at Arkansas, if only out of necessity as he’s likely to spend much more of his time in comeback mode. Sophomore wideouts Treylon Burks and Trey Knox had their moments as true freshmen despite the black hole behind center and look like solid breakout candidates with the benefit of a real QB. That’s a standard Franks can definitely meet, in a situation where it will definitely be appreciated.
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9. Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee
Guarantano survived an emotional roller-coaster of a 2019 season — a wild ride in which he was demoted, scapegoated, chewed out on national TV, and finally restored to the top of the depth chart in the midst of a 6-game winning streak that restored optimism to the program, all in the span of a few weeks. More than once in the course of that journey it looked like he’d taken his last snap as a Vol; instead, thanks to the NCAA’s decision to grant a blanket waiver of eligibility for 2020, he could conceivably hold down the job for 2 more years.
First, of course, he has to survive 2020, no minor feat considering the renewed expectations based on the way last year ended and the potential backlash if that momentum fails to carry over. Guarantano is a 5th-year senior with 25 career starts; he is who he is, which at this point in his career is a guy who’s rarely going to light up the stat sheet — in 3 years in and out of the lineup, he has yet to pass for 200+ yards in consecutive games — and who remains prone to imploding at inopportune times. It’s possible he would not have regained his job last year if his understudy, Brian Maurer, hadn’t been repeatedly bounced from the lineup by injuries, and with Maurer and 4-star freshman Harrison Bailey waiting in the wings, Guarantano could be subject to another quick hook. If he has turned a corner, he doesn’t have long to prove it.
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10. Matt Corral or John Rhys Plumlee, Ole Miss
Possibly no one stood to lose more from the decision to fire head coach Matt Luke last December than Plumlee — not because of Luke, but because it also meant the departure of OC Rich Rodriguez, whose spread-to-run philosophy fit Plumlee’s game like a glove. An afterthought at the start of the season, he wasted no time establishing his explosive rep, quickly supplanting Corral as the starter and finishing as both the SEC leader in rushing yards per game and the only true freshman nationally (at any position) to crack 1,000 yards rushing. Even more promisingly, the majority of that output came against Alabama, Missouri, Auburn and (most memorably) LSU.
https://twitter.com/ESPNCFB/status/1195889834763550720?s=20
As a sophomore, though, just what Plumlee’s role will look like in transition from Rodriguez’s offense to Lane Kiffin’s is an open question. Ominously, the list of dynamic, one-dimensional athletes behind center who have seen their production plummet post-Rodriguez is a distinguished one: At his previous stops, Pat White (West Virginia), Denard Robinson (Michigan) and Khalil Tate (Arizona) all became household names under RichRod, only to fade quietly back into their surroundings as soon as he was gone. And although Kiffin himself has made hay in the past with the likes of Blake Sims and Jalen Hurts, his biggest success as a play-caller has come on the arms of traditional pocket guys like Matt Leinart and Matt Barkley.
Corral, despite being a Southern California native named Matt, is hardly in that class. But his skill set is a better fit for a scheme that emphasizes pushing the ball downfield, and he’s reportedly capitalized on a minor injury to Plumlee by taking command of the job in preseason camp. The official depth chart for Saturday’s opener vs. Florida doesn’t designate a starter, leaving open the possibility that both will play as they did for much of last year. Unlike last year, this time around it appears Corral will play the central role with Plumlee relegated to the change of pace.
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11. Terry Wilson, Kentucky
Incredibly, the Wildcats are still waiting for the SEC’s verdict on Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood‘s status more than 9 months after he announced he was joining the team. If Gatewood is cleared to play – and it’s hard to imagine why he wouldn’t be, unless Auburn is actively obstructing his eligibility ahead of Saturday’s opener – he’s a candidate for immediate playing time on raw talent alone.
In the meantime, the job falls to Wilson, who missed nearly all of last season to injury after going 10-3 as a starter in 2018. In many ways Wilson was regarded as an afterthought in that run, if not a liability – he attempted fewer passes per game than any other full-time SEC starter for a unit that ranked 12th out of 14 teams in both total and scoring offense. He’s not about to break any records with his arm.
Then again, as Kentucky proved last year when it all but abandoned the forward pass over the second half of the season, a savvy, athletic QB in a scheme built around his strengths can go a long way. Wilson isn’t in the same category as a runner as the immortal Lynn Bowden Jr. – who is this side of Lamar Jackson? – but he’s certainly enough of a threat to allow the offense to continue to do what it did best last season after Bowden made the full-time switch from receiver, with the added bonus of expanding the passing game from “barely existent” to “sometimes functional.”
https://twitter.com/WildcatTDs/status/1038637201544957953?s=20
Just enough of that to earn opposing secondaries’ respect and UK’s vastly underrated o-line will handle the rest.
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12. Shawn Robinson, Missouri
Robinson has some starting experience to his credit at TCU, where he started seven games as a sophomore in 2018 before his Horned Frogs tenure was derailed by injury. At Mizzou, he’s only been a bystander due to NCAA transfer rules that kept him on ice for all of 2019. Athletically, he compares favorably to last year’s primary starter, Kelly Bryant, but after watching the Bryant experiment go gradually sideways over the second half of the season, it’s probably best to reserve judgment until there’s actually something to judge.
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13. Collin Hill, South Carolina
It remains to be seen just how committed the Gamecocks are to Hill, a grad transfer via Colorado State who followed his former head coach, Mike Bobo, to Carolina over the offseason. But his surprise promotion over sophomore incumbent Ryan Hilinski is obviously not an encouraging sign for Hilinski’s growth. Despite his well-documented struggles last year as a true freshman, Hilinski is a blue-chip talent who is, or was, still seen as the future of the program. Instead he’s already lost ground to Hill, who initially seemed less like a threat to Hilinski’s job than a veteran insurance policy after suffering 3 ACL tears in 4 years at CSU. In his 11 career starts in Fort Collins, the Rams went just 3-8, with 2 of those 3 wins coming vs. FCS opponents.
It’s always possible that Hill vindicates the decision by playing well, or that Hilinski reasserts himself as the starter. It’s also possible that both are only keeping the seat warm for true freshman Luke Doty, a top-100 prospect who has split time between quarterback and wide receiver in the preseason in an effort to get on the field as quickly as possible, but whose long-term home is behind center. Who knows how his role will ultimately unfold. But even flirting with the prospect of one true-freshman starter passing the baton to another one in consecutive seasons before the season has even started cannot be good.
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14. TBD, Vanderbilt
The Commodores were bereft at quarterback in 2019 and opted to start over from scratch with a QB-heavy recruiting class featuring two high-school signees (Ken Seals and Mike Wright) and a pair of JUCO transfers (Jeremy Moussa and Danny Clark) for good measure. There was very little separation among the new arrivals as recruits – all four were tabbed as generic 3-stars – and there’s no sign of a consensus favorite heading into the opener vs. Texas A&M. Not that it really matters: If last year’s revolving door is any indication, all of them can expect to get their turn in due time.
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Cover image: Stanford-to-Miss State transfer KJ Costello, Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, Myles Brennan and Kellen Mond via USA Today.
I’m pretty sure Nix and Trask should be ahead of Jones/Young.
Nix is already too high
Maybe. It depends on how he fairs in week 1.
Young, sure.
Mac Jones, absolutely not. Bo Nix started 13 games last year and threw only 2 more TD’s than Mac Jones, who started 4 games. 7 of Mac’s 14 TD’s came in two games against Auburn and Michigan, two defenses ranked inside the final Top 25 in the team defense rankings. Comparatively, in four games against top 25 defenses (UGA, Bama, Oregon, and Florida), Bo threw 5. Mac also had a completion percentage 11 points higher than Bo.
You make a good point.
I agree with Trask. Nix doesn’t have the stats that Jones had. Jones also played better against the better teams.
Jones puts Nix to shame!!!! But this article is PURE STUPIDITY!!! ALL 3 OF UGA’s Guys are better than KJ COSTELLO!!! JT DANIELS HIGH SCHOOL CAREER WOULD SHAME HIS!!! Which is exactly why JT DANIELS was listed as THE #1 QB IN THE TRANSFER PORTAL ABOVE COSTELLO!!!
PS. What a joke!!!
King Negan
THIS IS LONG. BUT PLEASE READ IT AND THEN TELL ME COSTELLO IS BETTER THAN JT DANIELS!!! Please really take the time to read this. I took time to look up stats. So do me a favor and read it please. Then remember Max Prep number is the correct number!!!! That makes it even worse!!! This is in regards to the BS claim that Costello is the class of the SEC. Here is proof he is not even close!!!! JT DANIELS MADE HIM LOOK SICK. Still until JT Daniels gets used to the SEC game Mac Jones is my pick right this second. But JT Daniels is my overall pick!
In fact Wikipedia claims that KJ Costello threw 62 TD passes in his high school career note ” in 4 seasons! ” But Max Prep that I trust far more says only 54 TD PASSES!!! But this was a 4 year career!!! Remember that detail.
He/Costello went to Stanford where he then became the BACKUP to Keller K, the transfer to Tennessee!!! Keller wasn’t stunning at Tennessee last year. Only at Stanford when Keller K got injured, did KJ Costello take the job. Then he transferred for a reason to!!!
Now keep in mind. I still say. Day 1 Alabama and Mac Jones have the advantage!!! Costello isn’t even close!!! Bryce Young is also in a different league than Costello!!! Wait and see. But I think Mac Jones keeps the job this year! Not saying Saban won’t pull him in the playoffs or late in the season if Mac is losing a game. But he is Alabama’s starter and a thousand times better than KJ Costello! But now let’s go on.
Just for the record. JT Daniels is also on another planet in talent compared to KJ Costello! Even if you give Costello the 62 TD PASSES in 4 years.
It still doesn’t even come close to JT Daniels 151 TD PASSES in just 3 years!!! Had he played his senior season. It would have been even worse! As is, it is 82 TD PASSES DIFFERENCE!!! So how is Costello the better recruit or QB? I suppose the unbelievable difference in TD PASSES is just to much to take in. And they must like the name KJ Costello. Because the numbers don’t even come close to showing Costello is better!!!
In other words. Double Costello’s 4 year career. And it comes to 124 TD PASSES if I’m thinking right. That still falls far short of 151 TD PASSES of JT Daniels 3 year career!!! After you double Costello’s 4 year career numbers. Then you still need to ADD 27 more TD passes to that number to finally reach JT Daniels 3 year career!!! But Costello is better??? On what planet? Which universe? What reality? Please!!!!
Daniels could have added another 50 TD passes in his sleep, had he decided to play his senior season. Instead he jumped straight to starting at USC behind a terrible, horrible o line. Still he completed I believe 62 % of his passes! And it was the worst season in his life! Please whoever said KJ Costello based upon his high school career like they said. THAT PERSON NEEDS TO BE LAUGHED OFF SDS!!! That means if Mathis starts and it’s possible for him or Beck to start. But if he does then that means UGA has 2 backup QBs both better than KJ COSTELLO!!! Heck I think we do anyway!!!
KJ Costello, please I’m still laughing!!! I can’t help it. I’m not a huge Kyle Trask fan. But right now Kyle Trask is so much better than KJ Costello it’s not even funny!!! I’m not totally sure Costello starts at Mississippi state. If he does he might get pulled before game 3 of the season!!!!
Right this second I believe it’s #1. Mac Jones, #2. Possibly for a game or so maybe Kyle Trask. Then #3. And soon to move ahead of them all. WHOEVER STARTS AT UGA OR WINS OUT IN THE FIRST 2 GAMES OR SO OF THE SEASON!!!! I’m going with JT Daniels or Carson Beck to eventually win out. But darn I think D’wan Mathis is also super talented!!! He could win it because of his arm and legs. But I’m going with JT Daniels as my first pick and Carson Beck as my second long term this year! Then probably at #4. Definitely Bo Nix who long term this year might be in the top 2 or 3 maybe. I would say probably #3 simply because I don’t see anyone knocking either UGA or Alabama out of those top two spots!!! REMEMBER NOW I’M REFERRING TO TALENT LEVEL. NOT JUST WHO PASSES FOR THE MOST YARDS!!! Because UGA has those 5 great running backs and they will use them!!!
WHY ALABAMA’S MAC JONES SHOULD BE THE EASY PICK AT SEASONS START….A VERY EASY PICK!!!
Again my immediate pick is Mac Jones. And in game one or two it might not be close!!!! Did anyone actually watch him last season? He actually had better numbers than Tua did once he finally got in the game in meaningful minutes! He didn’t lose to auburn even with those pick 6s! He put up 45 points on a great auburn defense IN AUBURN!!! And was close to putting up even more!!! He should be anyone’s immediate pick with all that talent both his and the teams and all that experience!!! He could take a step back because of losing a few NFL wrs. But I doubt he steps too far back!!! He is my day one pick with a chance to hold on to it. We will see! BUT HE IS AN EASY CHOICE FOR DAY ONE! AND HE WILL GO NO FURTHER DOWN THAN #2 IN THE REAL POWER RANKINGS. WHICH ARE MINE!!!! OKAY I’M DONE LOL.
No really I’m finished. This had to be long. I had no choice. KJ Costello might be near the bottom. But not even close to the top!!! Sorry Mississippi state fans. Ole Miss has a better QB!!!
PS. It’s Alabama and Georgia all the way!!! EASY!!!!
King Negan
YIKES!!!! I’m sorry I knew it was lengthy but not like this. Please someone read it or it won’t make any sense! I honestly apologize for the length.
King Negan
Matt Corral at Ole Miss with Kiffin is going to be up there soon. But Costello with Leach is almost impossible to compete with stat wise.
Rankings of any sort are nothing more than an opinion. Traditional rankings are an opinion based on your guess of how they are going to perform or would perform in a hypothetical matchup. Power Ranking is a relatively new term that is supposed to refer to a ranking based on some metric of where they are NOW based on performances that have already happened. I understand putting Costello high on a traditional ranking based on expectations of Leach’s offense, but he has done nothing to date to put himself on the top of a Power Ranking in my opinion.
Kyle Trask should be #1.
You trolling for a UF boyfriend????
I’m just surprised Newman isn’t still on the list.
L.O.L.
No, just telling it like it is. I just think he’s a good college qb and the best proven starter in the SEC.
agreed! But the media hates Fl.. They have a love affair with ol st. Nick
“Nix turned in his worst outings in losses to Florida, LSU and Georgia..’
Against UGA, Nix was 60% for 240 yards and a TD, plus a rushing TD. It was his 3rd highest yards in a game, behind Ole Miss and Miss St. Don’t think it was one of his worst outings considering he was worse vs Oregon and Bama.
I know we’ve previously discussed this game and nix’s performance against uga. i agree that it’d be incorrect to call that game a bad outing, but i’ve done a little more of a deep dive into the stat sheet, as I remembered him struggling more than a collective 60% completion rate and 240 yds. what i found out:
– he definitely shined in the 4th qtr. outside of the last drive, where he went 0-3 with the game on the line and took a sack, he went 14-19 for 129 yds. 74% completion rate and almost half of his completions in that one qtr, while he had over half of his total passing yds
– with the 4th qtr removed, he was 16-28 for 116 yds over the first 3 qtrs. hardly impressive #s, while they do likely trend to one of his worst outings.
above is of course a dissection and the game isn’t played in just 3 qtrs, but my point is that he certainly struggled prior to turning his game around in the 4th, though also went 0-3 on his last drive.
one other knock on nix…or maybe better placed to the offense as a whole was that they were 5/18 on 3rd downs and 1/4 on 4th downs. as you know, qbs take on the lion-share of credit and blame, those two stats don’t look good and certainly at least support the narrative that it was a ‘bad’ outing.
It wasn’t a bad outing compared to LSU, UF, Oregon or Bama. You can dissect all you want too. The author claimed it was one of his worst outings and that is false.
Nix had the only regular season rushing TD against Georgia’s defense.
Think about that for a moment.
Hope Terry sees this :-)
“LT Austin Deculus” should be “RT Austin Deculus”.
“Saturday’s trip to Mississippi State” should be “Saturday’s home game against Mississippi State” or “Saturday’s trip to Tiger Stadium”.
My money is on Trask.
small sample size for this particular qb, but if i had to pick one qb to lead my team heading into 2020, it’d be mac jones.
trask would be #2.
someone else could certainly end up being better than the above two, but everyone else was either too inconsistent or is a complete unknown in how they perform against sec competition.
I was not aware of SCs qb situation. I always thought Hillinski was going to get chance to have the sophomore leap as they all talk about for true freshman starters.
Bobo ALWAYS prefers “experience” his offense over a QB with more talent but less experience.
Or have you forgotten 2009 and Joe Cox, The Red-Headed Menace’s Reign of Mediocrity?
Or 2006 and starting the season with JTIII, maybe the least-talented QB to take the field for an SEC team so far this century? Maybe ever.
Skylar Mornhinweg says hello
I don’t understand. Why is it a problem that Mond was 2nd in percentage of offensive production, only behind Burrow?
Didn’t LSU and Burrow have the greatest season ever?
What’s the problem with being 2nd in that list? Based on what Burrow/LSU did, it seems like leading that list should be the goal.
Mac Attack is about to prove a lot of people wrong. Kid will lead Bama to a championship.
He has the talent around him to do it
Trask and Jones not being #1 or #2 is silly.
I pretty much agree with all the others on the list.
Media’s love affair with the tide continues..
First caveat: Week 1 could be sloppy and we could see huge improvement across the board in Week 2. Playing against guys you don’t face in practice every day is totally different, no matter how good the guys you practica against are. I’ve reordered the QBs below; the rankings in parentheses are the author’s rankings from the article.
1. Kyle Trask, Florida (3rd). I suspect that most people who aren’t really familiar with Trask fail to fully appreciate (1) how big he is; (2) how good his throwing mechanics are; and how much he has actually played, both in high school and at Florida. If you play golf or tennis, you’re probably familiar with the idea of a “repeating swing.” It’s all about consistency; the same swing every time. Trask has exceptional throwing mechanics, which make him both consistent and accurate. The receivers who will start on Saturday are all elite and caught 1,607 yards worth of passes last season (the four seniors now in the NFL caught 1,871 yards worth; just 16% more). With this combination of talent and experience, I expect Trask to have the most yards of any SEC team with a winning record. And he absolutely will be drafted [see (1) and (2) above].
2. Mac Jones or Bryce Young, Alabama (2nd). Jones is very solid but he isn’t as big or as mechanically sound as Trask. Also, while he will be throwing to elite and experienced receivers, I expect Alabama to revert to running the ball more this year versus recent seasons, which will ding his passing stats. Even so, I think Alabama’s quarterback (whoever it ends up being) will finish second to Trask in QBR, completion ratio and yardage because his supporting cast is both elite and experienced.
3. Myles Brennan, LSU (7th). I’m putting Brennan here because (1) he was very prolific in high school; (2) he has been in the system for three years; (3) Coach O didn’t go chasing transfer QBs during the offseason; and (4) the weapons he has to throw to. Brennan may get picked on by better secondaries and edge rushers, but he has an awful lot of talent around him.
4. K.J. Costello, Mississippi State (1st). It’s natural to assume that Costello will lead the conference statistically just by virtual of playing in Leach’s offense, where short passes substitute for a running game. But as I wrote in another comment, Leach needs some time to find the guys needed to catch all those passes, and I would guess that the offensive line will have some rough patches adjusting to their new, wider splits. Washington state went 3-9 in his first season there (and 1-8 in the PAC-12). I’m ranking Costello this high because he is an older, proven quarterback and even with lots of hiccups, Leach’s offense should generate a lot of passing yards.
5. Bo Nix, Auburn (5th). Bo Nix is my poster child for assigning 5 stars to a high school quarterback because he is a coach’s son, and therefore presumed to be more advanced in his development. I’m ranking him this high because he has shown himself to be a clutch competitor (Oregon, Alabama last season) who could take a big second year leap under Chad Morris.
6. Feleipe Franks, Arkansas (8th). Feleipe is just a remarkable specimen. 6’6″ and can probably throw the ball 80 yards. Dan Mullen trned him into a quarterback with a 75% CMP ratio in his last five games before the injury. He also gets buy-in from his teammates. He’s probably in for a rough year at Arkansas, but there will be some moments where he amazes everyone with his raw talent. Does he make some bone headed mistakes? Sure, but I don’t think any worse than all but the top two quarterbacks here. He just got labeled that way from the moment he stepped into his first spring game as a true freshman at Florida (His 2018 TD-to-INT ratio was 3.83 to 1, which is pretty darn good). And yes, I do think he’ll end up as a developmental project on an NFL roster.
7. Matt Corral or John Rhys Plumlee, Ole Miss (10th). Corral is a strong armed gunslinger from California who could thrive with Lane Kiffin coaching him up and calling plays. Plumlee got a lot of media hype last year and he had some stunning rushing yardage totals. But 52% CMP. And I suspect now that there’s plenty of film on him, he gets well contained (he was able to surprise LSU in the game where he rushed for 212 yards). Which is yet another reason I expect Corral to be QB1. Mullen’s compliments aside, Plumlee was timed at 4.61 in the 40, which while fast for a quarterback, is not fast.
8. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (4th). Mond is an ultra talented quarterback who can often make something out of nothing. Unfortunately, he all too often makes nothing out of something. A 61% CMP ratio and 2.1 to 1 TD-to-INT ratio in his third season (2019) just says he is who he is. Losing key players around him to opt outs won’t help the situation.
9. J.T. Daniels or D’Wan Mathis, Georgia (6th). J.T. Daniels was all-world at California football factory Mater Dei but he was a turnover machine at USC. He left USC because he apparently concluded that he would not be able to beat out 3-star but freshman phenom Kedon Slovis. Georgia fans will attribute all the turnovers to “he was just really young.” Professional scouts will say he is an uber talented gunslinger with poor judgment. Todd Monken may fix this, but it’s going to be tough without spring practice and a contracted summer camp. D’Wan Mathis is tall and fast, but word is he regressed to an unfortunately poor mean with more snaps in practice. Expect Georgia, like Kentucky, to go heavy on the running game in this weird year.
10. Terry Wilson, Kentucky (11th). I want to rank Terry Wilson higher but we don’t know how his mobility is yet. If he’s not mobile I would rank him lower. He is a talented guy but the combination of his elusiveness and Lynn Bowden catching passes probably made him seem a lot better in 2018 than he really is. I expect an emphasis on the run at Kentucky this year. Joey Gatewood is a highly rated guy, but he lost out to a true freshman at Auburn last year. Most transfer quarterbacks leave because there’s a better guy ahead of them, Justin Fields to the contrary notwithstanding.
11. Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee (9th). I want to believe. I really do. This is a tough kid who has endured fan criticism second only to Feleipe Franks. The problem is that he’ll be throwing to an inexperienced receiver corps this year and that really truly is a problem. The other thing is that Tennessee’s offensive line and running backs scream emphasis on the running game. However, passing statistics aside, he’s a fifth year player who may win a clutch game or two for his team.
12. Collin Hill, South Carolina (13th). I don’t know what to think about this. I’m a big fan of Hilinski and think he has a lot of potential. Hill was only average (59% CMP) and threw the ball to the other team once for every TD pass he threw in 2018 but he showed significant improvement before he suffered an ACL tear in the third game. He does know Bobo’s offense, though. With Stockton on the horizon, Hilinski may transfer if he doesn’t win back the starting job this season.
13. Shawn Robinson, Missouri (12th). I have no idea what to say here. Robinson was serviceable and athletic at TCU and Drinkwitz knows offense. We’ll see.
14. TBD, Vanderbilt (14th). I think maybe Vandy should study Kentucky game film of Lynn Bowden playing quarterback last year, mostly running the wildcat, and just put their best offensive athlete at quarterback? How much worse could it be?
* Collin hill’s ACL tear was in the third game of 2019.
While I agree with your ranking of UGA’s QBs more than the author’s (I would actually place them even lower than you until they start playing games and prove themselves), I am curious where you heard Mathis has regressed to an unfortunate mean since receiving more snaps.
Dawgs 247 reports attributed to sources who watched practice, as reported by Josh Pate on his Late Kick podcast. Only the regression was reported; attributing it to a larger sample size is my interpretation.
Interesting. I’ve not heard much, though the little I have indicated things were positive. But it’s essentially all coming from one source, so I could very well be wrong.
Wow. I’ve seen some stupid stuff on SDS before but I think I lost some brain cells just reading this article.
“After 3 years backing up Danny Etling and Joe Burrow, Saturday’s trip to Mississippi State will not only mark his first career start: It will be his first notable action outside of garbage time.” If Brennan makes a trip to Starkville on Saturday, it needs to be a quick one. Kick-off time in Baton Rogue is scheduled for 2:30 CDT.