Vegas sharp breaks down Week 6 SEC games
SEC football resumes Saturday at noon ET as Ole Miss hosts New Mexico State. There are a total of five games with at least one conference member on the day.
Brian Edwards, a long-time Las Vegas handicapper with an emphasis on SEC football, will provide his thoughts and insights on the line moves throughout the 2015 season. Edwards, a University of Florida graduate, is a weekly radio guest in Las Vegas, Omaha and Memphis and makes regular appearances on Chad Millman’s betting podcast on ESPN.com.
You can check out his work on Twitter or on his website, BrianEdwardsSports.com.
New Mexico State at Ole Miss
Kickoff: Noon ET
Friday Line: Ole Miss -45 (opened -43)
Over/Under: 67 (opened 66.5)
Public: 73 percent Rebels
Analysis: “Ole Miss has some injury issues. Tony Conner’s absence — that 77-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Powell doesn’t happen if he’s in the game. Now C.J. Johnson goes down, and that’s not good. I think next week (at Memphis) is a tough game. I have Ole Miss as a 9.5- or 10-point favorite in that game right now.
“Ole Miss has this game to get right, but there are no layups left. It’s brutal the rest of the way. The Rebels have every opportunity to recover. They still have the tiebreaker on Alabama. They still have a chance at a great, great season. But I’m concerned about their injuries. And you’ve got to be concerned with the way they played last week, because the Ole Miss offensive line got absolutely manhandled by Florida.”
The Play: Pass.
LSU at South Carolina (Baton Rouge, La.)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
Friday Line: LSU -19.5 (opened -13)
Over/Under: 50 (opened 49)
Public: 70 percent Tigers
Analysis: “I’m not in a hurry to get to the window for either of these teams right now. I like LSU in general, but their quarterback play last week obviously wasn’t up to par. I’m not saying they’re necessarily going to need their quarterback this week, but they’re definitely going to need him down the road, and he’d played pretty well until last week.
“The biggest thing with this game is if I’m an SEC West contender — life comes before football. I’m not saying I disagree with moving the game. But I’m not happy if I’m an Alabama or Texas A&M. LSU went to Syracuse on Sept. 26, and they don’t have to get on another airplane until Nov. 7. And they didn’t have to play their opening game against McNeese State, either.
“Brandon Wilds (ribs) comes back for this game. That should help. If I had to pick it, I’d probably play South Carolina. If they don’t turn the ball over three times last week, they’re probably right there in that game. But South Carolina’s not a play-on team and it’s a lot of points to play against Spurrier.”
The Play: Slight lean to South Carolina, if you’re feeling adventurous.
Georgia at Tennessee
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
Friday Line: Georgia -3 (opened -2.5)
Over/Under: 59.5 (opened 57)
Public: 78 percent Bulldogs
Analysis: “I just don’t know where the Tennessee locker room is right now. They’ve had a lot of injuries. Now Pig Howard is gone. Curt Maggitt is still gone.
“And where is Georgia’s psyche after getting pummeled last week? I know myself and a lot of the country were talking about Greyson Lambert. Now that we’ve seen them get bludgeoned like that, let’s talk about what Georgia’s really done this year. They lit it up at home against a South Carolina defense that isn’t very good. They had a very misleading final score in that win at Vandy.
“There’s just not a whole lot on Georgia’s resume to be that impressed with, and Tennessee is a play here and there from being 5-0. But they don’t know how to win a close game. This one’s a pass for me.”
The Play: Pass.
Troy at Mississippi State
Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
Friday Line: Mississippi State -30.5 (opened -30.5)
Over/Under: 56.5 (opened 56)
Public: 51 percent Trojans
Analysis: “Mississippi State couldn’t cover 21 at Southern Miss. They did cover 38.5 against Northwestern State. Troy loses by 28 at North Carolina State. I think Mississippi State’s better than N.C. State. Troy lost by 25 at Wisconsin.
“This just isn’t one I want to mess with. I think Mississippi State is going to get into the 40s, and Mississippi State’s defense is not world-beaters. If I had to do anything, I’d give a slight lean to the over. The 56.5 is a key number, as 56 is a multiple of 7. So if I were betting on the over, I’d buy the half-point down to 56.”
The Play: Slight lean to the over.
Arkansas at Alabama
Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
Friday Line: Alabama -16.5 (opened ?)
Over/Under: 48 (0pened 48)
Public: 66 percent Crimson Tide
Analysis: “I like Arkansas here. I made Alabama just an 11-point favorite. I really like what I’ve seen out of the Razorbacks the last two weeks. They’ve gotten back to what they like to do. Alex Collins has run for more than 150 yards in three straight games.
“Alabama is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games as a double-digit home favorite. If we go back further, their last 21 as a double-digit home favorite, they’re only 8-13 against the spread.
“I’m not trying to condescend what Alabama did last week. It put a bludgeoning on Georgia between the hedges and that is very, very impressive. But they did get a defensive and a special teams touchdown. I just don’t know that the Bama offense is where they want it to be. They were only 1 of 12 on third down. We can probably throw four or five of those out because the game was in hand. I still have questions about Jake Coker.
“Alabama’s strength is its defensive line, and Arkansas’ strength is its offensive line. I think the Razorbacks can keep the Tide a little off balance. They’re going to want to run the football, but they can mix in some play-action. Arkansas has a veteran quarterback on the road in Brandon Allen with a 28-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio the last two years.
“I won’t be surprised in the least if this is a one-possession game into the fourth quarter. I think Alabama wins a 28-17, 28-20 type of game.”
The Play: Arkansas.
Florida at Missouri
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Friday Line: Florida -4.5 (opened -4.5)
Over/Under: 40 (opened 39.5)
Public: 64 percent Gators
Analysis: “I think Jim McElwain and Doug Nussmeier have done a terrific job with their play-calling and developing this offensive line. Now I still don’t think this Florida offensive line is that good, but it’s been good enough. Demarcus Robinson had a breakout game last week. He’s been relatively quiet. We’ve seen Brandon Powell making the big plays.
“But this is a big-time trap game for Florida. I made Florida a 3.5-point favorite. I think the total’s a little low. I made it 44. I just don’t think you want to play any overs right now with Missouri.
“Drew Lock obviously played better last week for Missouri and took care of the football with two touchdowns and no picks. Russell Hansbrough is getting a little healthier. Ish Witter is starting to make a name for himself. I think this is a very, very, very dangerous game for Florida.
“I feel like Mizzou backers have missed the good number at 5.5. I feel like a book or two had a cup of coffee at Florida minus-6. I lean to Mizzou here. I’m a Gators alum. I would love to take a 8-7 victory and get the hell out of there with a ‘W.'”
The Play: Lean toward Missouri.