Only six FBS schools remain undefeated this season, as three unbeatens fell last weekend. We knew either Michigan or Michigan State would drop from the group, and the Spartans remain blemish-free after a memorable comeback win. Previously perfect San Diego State and SMU were knocked off by Fresno State and Houston, which begs the question — will any of the five active undefeated programs suffer their first defeat in Week 10?

Let’s jump into our best bets and top college football upset picks for Week 10, backed with complete betting analysis.

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Best College Football Upsets for Week 10

Wake Forest vs. North Carolina

It has happened quite a bit this season where a highly ranked school finds itself as road dogs. In this case, undefeated Wake Forest is spotted points by a disappointing 4-4 North Carolina team in Chapel Hill. The Demon Deacons, ranked in the AP Top 10 for the first time in school history and enjoying their first 8-0 start to a season since World War II, should find all the motivation they need in this game’s line alone.

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After all, this is a Wake Forest offense ranked in the top 10 in the nation in total yardage, collecting nearly 500 yards per game, which will be facing a North Carolina defense allowing nearly 400 yards per game, good for just 78th best in FBS.

Wake Forest, which had set a school record last season with its 36 points per game mark, currently sits fifth in the country in scoring at 43.4 points per game and has totaled at least 35 points in every single outing. This is bad news for a Tar Heels defense which has allowed 35 or more points to five of its last six opponents, with only lowly Duke held to less. North Carolina went 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in those five games and faces a Wake Forest bunch which has covered 13 of its 16 games over the last five seasons against defenses that allow more than 29 points per game.

While this game won’t count in the conference standings, part of an agreed upon 2019/2021 deal between these two schools, and, thus, will not jeopardize Wake’s run at the ACC’s Atlantic Division title, being undefeated and ranked where the Demon Deacons are should be enough to keep them from taking this one lightly.

Trends to Know

Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson’s teams have been stellar against the number in conference play during his career, posting a 57-43-1 ATS mark. His charges have also produced a 30-19 ATS record as road dogs, including 18-11 ATS while at Wake Forest in that role. That run with the Demon Deacons includes a current 12-5 ATS road dog streak since the start of the 2016 season.

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North Carolina’s struggles may continue here, as the Tar Heels are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus an opponent on a SU win streak of six games or more. Couple that with Wake’s streaky nature, having gone 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after an ATS victory, and you have a perfect recipe for a Wake Forest upset here in the Research Triangle.

Wake Forest vs. North Carolina Pick

Look for Wake to make it four covers in the last five meetings with UNC, three times as underdogs, while running its record to 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games against ACC opposition.

Our Pick: Wake Forest +2.5

Michigan State vs. Purdue

Mel Tucker’s Michigan State team has exceeded all expectations in just his second season. After a 2-5 finish in COVID-19-altered 2020, the Spartans have raced out of the gate with eight straight victories, culminating in an emotional comeback victory at home last week against rivals and formerly unbeaten Michigan. However, that latest triumph may be precisely what sets this Spartans group up for a huge letdown here.

Now, Sparty must travel to tricky Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana to face upset-minded Purdue, which has already ended Iowa’s CFP dreams this season. Purdue enters at 5-3, but in a subtly important spot. Just a win from bowl eligibility, the Boilermakers know they head to Ohio State next week, before a game at Wrigley Field against Northwestern, and a regular season finale at home against instate foes, Indiana. Win here and everything else they do is a pressure-free run toward a better bowl bid. Lose this one, however, and the Boilermakers’ collars get a bit tighter, knowing they, in all likelihood, will enter their final two games needing a win to earn a bowl bid.

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Trends to Know

Luckily, several bits of history stand by Purdue’s side here. Most importantly, this team has proven time and again to be ferocious as dogs. The Boilermakers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 in the underdog role, including 7-2 ATS as home underdogs since the start of the 2018 season. Also of note is the fact that the underdog in this head-to-head series has only lost once ATS in the last 11 meetings, including five straight covers.

Purdue coach Jeff Brohm could use another signature victory to solidify his standing at the university and moving to 9-2 ATS in his team’s last 11 games against winning opposition with a victory here surely would not hurt that cause.

This has to be a difficult motivational spot for Michigan State. This is a team not used to these levels of success in recent seasons.

The Spartans had not started any of their last five seasons with three straight wins, let alone eight, and were just 4-12 ATS against the Big Ten across the last two campaigns. To think that Tucker can get every young man to push the Michigan win aside and ignore the team’s current top five ranking borders on ridiculous. Keep in mind, too, that Michigan State has failed to cover any of its last seven games when ranked in the AP Top 5 and is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 November outings.

Michigan State vs. Purdue Pick

Look for Purdue to play spoiler again, moving to 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings. Sparty has not played on this field since 2014 and has covered just one of its last five trips to West Lafayette. This feels like too much for this overachieving bunch to overcome.

Our Pick: Purdue +3 

UNLV vs. New Mexico

We do a bit of dumpster diving here in a matchup between New Mexico (3-5) and UNLV (0-8), but occasionally there are gems hidden in such waste bins. For winless UNLV, a program that has now lost 14 straight games since coach Marcus Arroyo took over, this is easily the team’s best shot at a victory this season. Finishing 2021 with Hawaii, San Diego State, and Air Force offers little to no chance of a win and this team should be hungry to get a victory here while it has the opportunity.

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Who better to get on the schedule than a New Mexico program that has not covered a home game as a favorite since early in the 2016 season? The Lobos are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as favorites and are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 when laying points at home. In fact, they are 0-9 ATS as home favorites since the aforementioned 2016 cover.

One could make the argument that New Mexico, being as poor as it has been, should also relish this opportunity to earn another win. However, if that were true, you would think the Lobos would have better than a 6-20 ATS record in their last 26 against sub .500 opposition.

In fact, New Mexico has covered just one of its last seven home games against teams with losing road records, as well. And with UNLV entering this one off a 51-20 defeat to Nevada, we should point out New Mexico’s 2-11 ATS record in its last 13 against sub .500 foes off a double-digit SU loss.

Compounding the unlikelihood of a solid effort from the Lobos here is the fact that they are off a bye after a huge upset win over Wyoming. New Mexico has dropped five straight games ATS after a bye week. The team is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a SU win and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 following an ATS victory.

Meanwhile, UNLV is a team that, despite its poor SU performances in recent seasons, typically responds well after a bad loss. The Rebels have only lost six of their last 22 ATS after an ATS loss. They have also failed to lose any of their last six ATS after giving up more than 40 points in their previous outing.

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Since the start of the 2011 season, UNLV is a stellar 32-22 ATS as road dogs, including a current run that has seen them drop just one of their last six in that role ATS. In fact, they are 3-1 ATS this season as underdogs away from home.

UNLV vs. New Mexico Pick

This is the smallest line UNLV has faced in a streak of 25 straight games as underdogs. The Rebels covered a 2.5 point line, but lost, 35-33, in overtime earlier this season against Eastern Washington, which was the only other time in that 25-game stretch where they were listed as less than six point dogs. New Mexico is the only Mountain West team against which UNLV does not have a losing record (12-12).

Expect the Rebels to rally together to keep that intact and earn Coach Arroyo his first win.

Our Pick: UNLV +2.5 (BetMGM -110)

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