Texas A&M football: Predicting the Aggies' path to the Playoff
Texas A&M moved up to No. 7 in the AP poll this week, as tangible a sign as any that the Aggies are garnering national respect.
They are the third-highest ranked team in the SEC behind Alabama and Georgia. With a favorable schedule the rest of the way, it’s very possible A&M finishes the regular season at 9-1. That could be good enough to make the College Football Playoff, if the right things happen.
What would those scenarios be?
To start, Ohio State is ranked No. 5 but has yet to play a game. One has to think that if the Buckeyes are to get in, they would need to go undefeated. Same with Penn State, which is just behind the Aggies at No. 8, or any team in the Big Ten. The conference is scheduled to start its season this week, but all teams will play only eight games.
Even if one does go undefeated, there will still be a debate between it and a one-loss SEC or ACC team.
Speaking of the ACC, A&M must hope it has an undefeated team. That will mean Clemson or Notre Dame needs to beat the other twice (assuming both make the conference championship). If they split their matchups, it could be difficult for the committee to keep either out of the Playoff.
Then there is undefeated Oklahoma State at No. 6. The Cowboys already had a game against Baylor postponed because of positive COVID-19 tests for the Bears. If the Cowboys lose a game, A&M would have a case against them as well.
What’s most important, however, is what happens within the Aggies’ own conference.
Even though there is a good possibility A&M wins out, its chances of making the SEC Championship Game are still low. For that, it would need Alabama to lose twice, as the Crimson Tide holds the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Florida at Georgia on Nov. 7 is the game A&M fans should be circling on their calendars.
The Aggies will need to root for the Gators in that contest, as a Florida victory would likely move them into first place in the East and put them in position to play Alabama for the conference title. Even if Florida beats Alabama in that game, the committee would still have a tough time putting them in over an A&M team they lost to.
A lot has to happen, but none of it is too crazy. The Aggies have to like the spot they are in heading into a bye week. Here’s a look at the games remaining on their schedule:
- Arkansas
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
- Ole Miss
- LSU
- Auburn
There is upset potential in a couple of those games, but it would certainly be disappointing if A&M lost any of them. The Aggies have to assume they’ll finish 9-1.
They have looked a lot better in each of the past two weeks. It seems like the win against Florida ignited the program, as they continued to look dominant against Mississippi State. The defense is improving each week, and Isaiah Spiller is coming into his own as one of the best backs in the league. Don’t forget Kellen Mond.
This season isn’t the one to discount the Aggies.
Head coach Jimbo Fisher said after the victory against the Bulldogs that his team is nowhere near where it can be. There is still lots of football left, and the Aggies have plenty of opportunities for growth.
If they can stay out of their own way, this could shape up to be a pretty memorable season.
Can’t get too involved in all the “what if” scenarios. Just win the game in front of you and if that’s 9-1, it will be what it will be.
Arky+SC+UT = 1 loss
Ole Miss+LSU+Aub = 1 loss
Aggies will go 7-3 at best. Every yr people get carried away with the Aggies only to witness the thud at the end of the yr.
This is not Sumlin’s Aggies.
As much as I enjoy making fun of Kellen Mond it’s fairly bold to suggest A&M will lose to any of those teams. One loss out of all six of those teams is possible, but not two.
If there’s one thing we’ve all learned watching the Aggies for the last several years, it’s that you should never get hyped in the first half of the season even if this is Fisher’s Aggies. The remaining games are all lose-able due to our weak secondary, but I believe as long as we’re able to successfully punch through their dlines with the run game (I think we’re 17-1 under Fisher when we run for more than 150yds/game), we may be able to go 9-1. The toughest defense remaining I believe is Arkansas but they’ve given up more average rushing yds than MSU has so far, so I hope our oline can take control in the trenches and the clock.
Sounds like someone is a little bitter than the might Tigers have fallen so far…
The past 3 weeks I’ve read articles on here hyping up Arkansas’s next opponent and how they should beat us and go on a winning streak that exceeds expectations. Hasn’t gone too well after that for each team, so curious how this one plays out in 2 weeks.
Seen none of those articles and no one sports center is suggesting Arky to beat A&M. Last I saw it was still a 70% chance of an Aggie win. Where were these supposed articles? It should be a relatively easy win, just not maybe as easy as it looked in the preseason. But it looks like Arky has a better defense than MSU as the few weeks have progressed.
It would be better for A&M for Florida to win but A&M would still likely get in at 9-1 over a 9-2 Georgia.
Now that’s a good question. Because A&m beat Florida you would think they would get the nod over Florida, but would they get the night over a Georgia team that has only lost to Alabama? Idk. I bet they would because by that point they would not want to give Georgia a third shot at Alabama.
Unless I misread your statement, that’s exactly what he is saying. It would be better for Florida to win thus leaving Georgia 9-2, not 9-1. If Georgia beats Florida it will be a much tougher decision, assuming of course that Georgia and A&M run the table otherwise.
Like AggieRider says, not Sumlin’s Aggies. This team belongs to the man LSU offered $7 million dollars a year to.
LimaMikeFrankAlphaOscar!
LSU offered it for five years. The Aggies gave him 10. We made the right decision to pass on that.
He wasn’t leaving at that point to LSU whether you offered him 10 years or not, he was the one that passed, not LSU.
I guess they are hoping Florida makes it to the championship game and loses and TAM gets the nod over Florida, but that’s assuming a lot. I believe that Alabama’s the only team that’s gotten in that didn’t win their division. I just don’t see them doing that with Texas A&m, unless there’s a lot of losing between now and then outside of the SEC. It’s good to come up with a plan on how you can make it but I don’t think their chances are good at all.
Why would they want Florida to get to the championship game? They want Florida to beat Georgia on Nov 7 leaving Georgia with two losses. The thought behind it, if both teams win every other game on their schedule, is that you will have A&M with one loss and Georgia with 2. Both losses to common opponents with one being a team A&M beat. It’s very plausible for A&M to get the nod over Georgia at that point, conference champions or not.
They are not as good as you’re giving them credit for
You mean Tennessee? You’re right…
Stop it. If and it’s a big If florida wins out and beats alabama there is a literal zero percent chance that the Aggies would even get a sniff of the playoff before Florida. It’s crazy thought. They need to play for the sec title themselves to have a shot.
I’d be more than happy if we get to NY6. I don’t think we belong in the playoffs yet. These guys are going way too far with these predictions… But you really do need to get over the loss. “Lucking into a fumble to steal the game”. When will people stop playing the if game. Then I can say, if there was no delay of game penalty in that field goal kick, y’all would’ve still lost. If you guys hadn’t “lucked into a fumble” in the third quarter to steal Ainais Smith’s ball, Florida still would’ve lost. There’s no end to the if game. Just take the fact that A&M showed up to win on that day and move on ffs.
Def giving a&m a little too much credit for lucking into a fumble to steal a game.
Lol sounds like sour grapes. Florida also lucked into having an interception taken away for a weak hands to the face call and multiple soft personal foul calls extending drives for them. But sure A&M lucked into winning even though all the major stats say we played better
Now you’re just sounding ridiculous. How many plays did Florida “luck into”? That is amateurish logic at best. Let’s just go ahead and call the miscues the Aggies made all “lucky” for Florida and say they should have lost by much more. See how that works?
Look, the ONLY way A&M makes it is if Bama wins the CCG, and A&M looks very impressive finishing the season. If Ags are 9-1, with only loss to a really good Bama team on the road at the beginning of the season, they have a pretty good shot at being picked as the 3rd or 4th team even if a Big 10 team makes it. No way a 2nd B10 is making it, nor a Pac 12 team, nor a B12. Had to laugh at this writer thinking a 10-1 SEC Champ Florida team that just knocked off Bama would NOT be taken ahead of A&M.
If that happened, A&M’s only shot would be if Bama were completely embarassed and the voters think A&M is better than Bama at that point.
ps- re razz’s silly comment above; i guess the turnover gifted to Florida at midfield that led to Florida’s 4th quarter TD just doesn’t count. :)
A lot of good points here already (and, of course, a lot of emotionally based BS). All that matters right now is that the Aggies use the next two weeks to get ready for what promises to be a very physical game against a hungry, motivated, and– contrary to popular belief– capably talented Arkansas football team. By all “objective” accounts Arkansas has the talent on its current roster to beat all but maybe 4 or 5 teams in the country on any given Saturday, and Texas A&M is not yet among such elite company.
By now Coach Pitman and staff are evangelically preaching to the Hogs that they haven’t beaten the Texas Aggies since A&M joined the conference. I’ve been watching the Razorbacks closely this season. Those boys are chomping at the bit to beat the hell out of everyone. If this year’s Aggies were playing as hard on every play and every day as the Razorbacks have thus far done then we might’ve taken Alabama into the 4th quarter with the game in question. The biggest challenge the Aggies will face Saturday next is realizing 10 minutes into the game that everyone will be waking up sore on Sunday morning, getting past this, refusing to let pain matter, and ultimately pulling out the victory by whatever means available. Unless Auburn figures out its offense and/or LSU gets some voodoo magic at figuring out its defense and/or Tennessee benches Guarantano (and has someone better on the bench) then this Arkansas game is going to be far away the greatest challenge on the remaining regular season schedule.
Have to beat Arkansas. Have to wake up the next day, eat some ibuprofen, work out the soreness, and not let the fear of inevitable future physical pain curb continued focussed individual and team advancement… And then have to hope that Alabama beats everyone they play from now through the SEC Championship game like stepchildren. It would help if it’s Florida they beat that day, but it won’t necessarily matter. Bama beat FU by 17 already. If they beat them even worse a second time then A&M probably will get the nod over Georgia.
If Clemson wins out, Ohio or Penn State wins all of its 5, 6, 7, or 8 games, and Oklahoma State loses once, then all the Aggies should need is the Pac 12 having eaten its weak self to the degree to which each of those west coast cupcakes have at least one loss.
Then the Ags will be #4 facing either Clemson or Alabama and God help us that night. We’re not ready for the playoffs this year, but, again, who knows what tomorrow brings?
…Correction: Alabma beat UGA (not FU) by 17 already… my bad
I am curious to see what Arkansas’s 1st team defense can do against the Aggies since we we have our full complement of starters available for the first time this season…we have had 2 to 3 starters out each game this season
I’m just glad that CoViD-2020 has caused the game be moved to Kyle (instead of Jerry World).
Them Hawgs are tough. Them Hawgs are tough. We’re going to need every advantage we can get to get past them.
Neither team is good defensively and your got an A effort from your qb. Florida needed to play better defense.
Aggies have shut down everyone’s run game thus far, and so you’re saying that neither team is good defensively reeks of someone’s mind being stuck in last y(g)ear.
your (not you’re).
I drink.
There might some kind of path to the playoffs, but A&M not on it. They’re on the well worn one they always take.
There are many significant commonalities and differences between Texas AMC/A&M Farmers/Aggies and Mississippi A&M/State Farmers/Aggies/Maroons/Bulldogs:
1) We’re your rich Texas cousins. Y’all are our poor Mississippi cousins. This chapter of history into which we ALL were born and ALL shall die will forever be named The Petroleum Age and we Texans have far more petroleum than y’all do.
2) We both do everything we can (legally and illegally) to put championship football teams on the field.
3) We raise better football players amongst our 25 million children than y’all do among your 5 or 6 or whatever million offspring.
I wouldn’t be talking too much smack if I was the lesser maroons if I was you’s.
Sorry puddin’
Let me add knucklehead, I was born, raised and live in texas. Mine was a joke, because my family and friends went to A&M. Yours on the other hand, gives all Texans a bad name with your level of arrogance
I’ll admit it: I was three Bud Lights over the limit the night I typed this, and it came on the heels of some texts I had been sending to my dad via which I’d let myself devolve unto a booty-hole-ish state of mind.
I want to apologize to Mississippi State and all humans in general. Sincerely.
You should probably learn when it’s smart to post, and when it just makes you look like a sourpuss that’s butthurt from losing.
See you poked your head up once A&M won a couple of games. Good for you.
I’ve always been here, even during the Sumlin era, where were you? Like I said, your comment would have been fine if not made right after losing a game like that. Bad timing don’t you think?
I’ll be sure to ask you next time I want to make comment and make sure the timing is right
Probably a good idea if you don’t want to look like a bitter sourpuss. Glad to see you’re finally thinking straight.
Not gonna happen, at some point, aggie gonna aggie.
True this. And given time at some point Aggie NOT gonna Aggie.
Great Longhorn fan impression, and here I thought Hog fans actually had a little bit of intellect and decency. You must be one of those cousins nobody invites to the family gatherings.
Aggies had a great game plan vs UF and deserved the W. Mond played well and didn’t have the issues that many people (including myself) were expecting he’d show. Hats off to him and A&M for that. Good luck the rest of the way.
Thank you, Mud Dragon (i.e. American Alligator). Thank you and good luck to your boys.
Gig ’em!