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Alabama vs. LSU is a matchup between 2 programs who are desperate to avoid picking up a third regular-season loss.
In what has been billed as a Playoff elimination game, Alabama will travel to Tiger Stadium to play under the lights on Saturday night. Alabama dominated this series during the Nick Saban era, but this will be the first trip for Kalen DeBoer to Baton Rouge.
Both teams have significant strengths and weaknesses in their statistical profiles. Let’s take a look through some historical betting trends, advanced stats and some other useful info about these teams:
Alabama vs. LSU betting lines
Lines via DraftKings:
Spread: Alabama -2.5 (-115) | LSU +2.5 (-105)
Total: Over 58.5 (-110) | Under 58.5 (-110)
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Betting trends to know for Alabama
Alabama is…
- 4-4 against the spread this season
- 1-2 against the spread on the road this season
Betting trends to know for LSU
LSU is…
- 3-5 against the spread this season
- 1-1 against the spread as an underdog this season
- 2-1 against the spread coming off of a bye in the Brian Kelly era
Advanced Stats preview
Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:
- 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
- 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
- 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage
Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.
Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:
Rushing success rate
- Alabama rushing offense success rate: 44%
- LSU rushing defense success rate: 36.9%
Alabama is bringing a strong running game into this matchup against LSU, but not an elite one. Alabama’s success rate of 44% is pretty mediocre when compared to the rest of the country, but the Crimson Tide have been pretty explosive on the ground this year. They lead the SEC with 19 rushes of 20+ yards in just 8 games so far this season. They average 2 such runs per game in SEC play, which is tied for the best mark in the conference. Jam Miller and Justice Haynes get the majority of the work, and Game on Paper’s metrics prefer Miller as the more productive back out of that tandem (45% success rate compared to 29%).
LSU’s rush defense has had an inconsistent start to the 2024 season. The Tigers have particularly struggled in certain spots against running quarterbacks. We saw that last time out as A&M’s Marcel Reed led 5 consecutive scoring drives in a comeback win over LSU by moving the ball almost entirely on the ground. Earlier this season, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers averaged almost 9 yards per carry against LSU. Jalen Milroe is an excellent runner for the Crimson Tide, so LSU’s QB rush defense will once again be put to the test this weekend.
- LSU rushing offense success rate: 41.2%
- Alabama rushing defense success rate: 38.5%
Similar to the offensive side of the ball, Alabama’s rush defense is good, but not great. A rush defense success rate near 39% is roughly what the Tide produced last season as well. However, we’ve yet to see an SEC game this season where Alabama has thoroughly shut down the running game. SEC opponents have rushed for at least 3 yards per carry in every matchup against the Tide this season. And there’s been a considerable drop-off over the past 2 games as Tennessee (5 yards per carry) and Mizzou (4.3 yards per carry) both beat Alabama’s season average in that category. Over those 2 games, Alabama’s defensive rushing success rate was almost 41%.
Fortunately for the Tide, running the ball is not LSU’s strength. With a success rate of just over 41%, LSU has taken a huge step backwards in this department in 2024. Last year, LSU finished the season with a rushing success rate of about 58%. That’s an absurdly-high number, but it illustrates just how much LSU has struggled to run the ball effectively this season compared to a year ago. Per Game on Paper, LSU’s EPA-per-rush ranks 112th nationally. Caden Durham is the only LSU running back who has found any sort of success this season, and a lot of it came early in the year. Durham averaged just 3.5 yards per carry in 3 October contests vs. SEC opposition.
Passing success rate
- Alabama passing offense success rate: 46.5%
- LSU passing defense success rate: 43.5%
Alabama’s passing game has been inconsistent to this point in the year. After showing flashes of greatness early on, defenses seem to have figured out a large part of what Jalen Milroe and the Tide want to do in the passing game. Alabama’s passing success rate over the past 2 games has dropped to a brutal 36.5%. Milroe is also averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt over that span, so the explosive plays haven’t been there either. With a mediocre running game, Alabama has to figure out how to get back on track with throwing the ball down field if it wants to have an elite offense.
LSU’s passing success rate looks pretty mediocre, and it is. But the Tigers have done a good job of limiting explosive plays in the passing game. In 4 SEC contests, they’ve allowed just 10 passing plays of 20+ yards. LSU is also ranked 4th in the SEC in pass defense efficiency rating through 4 conference games. Most recently, LSU turned in a dominant performance against Texas A&M’s Conner Weigman, forcing the Aggies to bench him in favor of Marcel Reed. LSU has struggles in the QB run game, as mentioned earlier, but this is a secondary that has performed pretty well in SEC play so far.
- LSU passing offense success rate: 48.9%
- Alabama passing defense success rate: 34.7%
Alabama has a good pass defense success rate, but there are warning signs here as well. Georgia and Vanderbilt both averaged over 10 yards per attempt against Alabama’s secondary despite not having hyper-efficient passing offenses themselves. This profile is largely boosted by facing (mostly) backup quarterbacks against Wisconsin and Missouri. Good fortune related to QB health and missed opportunities by South Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee are the primary reasons why the number is under 35%. And even still, Alabama is in the middle of the SEC when it comes to preventing explosive passing plays.
LSU’s passing offense has been very efficient so far this season, boasting a passing success rate near 50%. The issue for first-year starter Garrett Nussmeier has been turnovers. He’s thrown 4 picks in LSU’s 2 losses this season and 5 in all other games. However, Nussmeier has been significantly better at home than on the road this season. He has a 153.7 passer efficiency rating at home compared to a 124.8 mark in that category on the road.
1 other key: Can Alabama pressure Garrett Nussmeier?
LSU’s rushing attack has been dreadful all season, so it would make sense for LSU to enter this game with a pass-heavy game plan — especially since the Tide have been vulnerable in the secondary this season.
As mentioned above, Nussmeier has very favorable home splits entering this matchup against Alabama in Baton Rouge. However, there’s an even bigger indicator out there of whether or not Nussmeier will have success: Pressure.
Per Pro Football Focus, Nussmeier is just 30-of-77 for 448 yards this season when he faces pressure. He’s averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt in that spot and also has a turnover-worth play rate of 6.4%. It’s not unusual for a quarterback to put up bad numbers under pressure, but Nussmeier is below-average in that context (min. 75 drop backs) for both yards per attempt and turnover-worthy play rate.
Contrast that with Nussmeier’s performance this season when kept clean: A 69% completion percentage with a 19-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.5%. There’s a huge difference in his play depending on whether or not he is facing pressure.
With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at Alabama’s pass rush. Alabama ranks 13th in total sacks so far this season amongst SEC teams, but might be a bit misleading. LT Overton has 24 QB hurries this season (per PFF) but only 2 sacks. Quandarrius Robinson has a win rate of 24.2%, which leads the SEC (min. 80 pass rush snaps) but only 4 sacks. Those are 2 edge rushers who LSU will have to contain if it wants to give Nussmeier the best chance at being successful in this game.
Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
