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Alabama Strength of Schedule: ESPN’s FPI projects the Tide’s toughest games in 2018
By Keith Farner
Published:
Barring a titanic upset, there’s a better than 80 percent likelihood that the near-consensus No. 1 team in the land begins the season at least 8-0.
Just three games on Alabama’s schedule this season have a less than 80 percent chance of the Crimson Tide winning, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. Those games are against the perennially toughest teams in the SEC West, or at least the teams that gave Alabama both its closest escape and only loss last season.
Auburn, LSU and Mississippi State statistically have the best chance of knocking off the Tide who, by the way, have at least one loss in each of the last eight seasons. Alabama has a 77.8 percent chance to beat LSU, a 79.1 percent chance for a win against Mississippi State and a 66.8 percent chance against Auburn.
Alabama, of course, will be out for revenge in the Iron Bowl as the Tigers prevented them from playing for the SEC title last year. While Mississippi State game Alabama a scare last year, the Tide have largely handled the Bulldogs by double digits in recent years. And the LSU game, while low scoring in recent years, has gone Alabama’s way for seven straight matchups.
Among the other statistical projections for Alabama by the FPI is a 10.8-1.8 record, a 36.3 percent chance to win SEC title and a 10 percent chance to go undefeated.
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
