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Saturday brings us the de facto SEC West championship game. Mississippi State, the top ranked team in both polls and in the College Football Playoff rankings, comes to Tuscaloosa to take on the Crimson Tide, who currently sit fifth in the playoff picture. Mississippi State would clinch the division with a win, while Alabama would be squarely in the driver’s seat.
Here are some of the statistics that could define Saturday’s game.
THE GOOD
- 16. Despite one of the best red zone defenses in the nation, Mississippi State has a real problem between the 20s. The Bulldogs have allowed 16 pass plays for 30-plus yards, good news for Amari Cooper and Blake Sims. Nearly all of Cooper’s touchdowns have come from beyond the red zone, and it’s one way the Crimson Tide can exploit the MSU defense.
- 4. Sticking with the pass defense, State has allowed 300 or more passing yards four times this season. Alabama averages 349.3 yards per game at home. While an over-reliance on the passing game hampered Alabama’s offense last week, it could be the key to victory on Saturday.
- 3-1. Nick Saban has been pretty good against top-ranked teams in his time in Tuscaloosa, winning three of four contests against them. The only loss was the 9-6 Game of the Century between the Tide and LSU. It’s safe to say, with these two offenses, that this game won’t end up with 15 total points.
THE BAD
- 3. Alabama’s running game was stymied for much of the game against LSU, and that could be the case again against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs allow just 3.5 yards per carry, and have only given up more than 4 yards per carry in three games. Alabama has been held below 4 yards per carry just three times this season, and all three were tough games: the loss to Ole Miss and down-to-the-wire games against Arkansas and LSU.
- 86.5. The Crimson Tide defense has been susceptible to mobile quarterbacks in the past, and they face one of the best in the country on Saturday. Dak Prescott averages 86.5 yards per game on the ground and has punched in 11 rushing touchdowns on the season. With the way Tennessee’s Josh Dobbs frustrated the Tide, Alabama could have some issues containing Prescott.
- 46.6. The Bulldogs convert on nearly half, 46.6 percent, of their third down plays. Alabama doesn’t often allow opponents to top even 40 percent, but in the four games they have they’ve been in for a fight. The Bulldogs have converted more than 50 percent in four of their nine games.
A former freelance journalist from Philadelphia, Brett has made the trek down to SEC country to cover the greatest conference in college football.
