In just four days, the Arkansas Razorbacks will take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, Texas. On the surface, it may just look like any other non-conference game for the Hogs, but it’s so much more.

For an Arkansas team finally in the win column for the first time since September of 2013, this game could mean the difference in whether this team makes a bowl appearance in 2014. As a team currently in rebuilding mode, a bowl appearance after a winless conference season in 2013 would certainly be a huge boost for the program moving forward.

Let’s take a look at the Arkansas schedule.

8/30 at Auburn 21-45 Loss

9/6 vs Nicholls State 73-7 Win

9/13 at Texas Tech

9/20 vs N. Illinois

9/27 vs Texas A&M (neutral site)

10/11 vs Alabama

10/18 vs Georgia

10/25 vs vs UAB

11/1 at Mississippi State

11/15 vs LSU

11/22 vs Ole Miss

11/28 at Missouri

The Razorbacks are currently 1-1 on the season.

Hypothetically speaking, let’s say Arkansas beats Texas Tech on Saturday, putting them at 2-1. If you look ahead at the schedule, Arkansas will be the favorite against Northern Illinois and UAB, so we’ll go ahead an mark those as wins for the Hogs.

Arkansas then runs into a brutal three-game stretch against three top-10 teams: a neutral-site game against Texas A&M and two home games against Alabama and Georgia. Realistically speaking, the best chances to win among those three games for Bret Bielema and his team is either the neutral-site game versus the Aggies or the Georgia matchup at home. More than likely, all three of those still end in a loss for the Hogs as they will be overwhelming underdogs.

So we’re to Nov. 1 now and here’s how the schedule looks with our hypothetical results.

8/30 at Auburn 21-45 LOSS

9/6 vs Nicholls State 73-7 WIN

9/13 at Texas Tech WIN

9/20 vs N. Illinois WIN

9/27 vs Texas A&M (neutral site) LOSS

10/11 vs Alabama LOSS

10/18 vs Georgia LOSS

10/25 vs vs UAB WIN

11/1 at Mississippi State

11/15 vs LSU

11/22 vs Ole Miss

11/28 at Missouri

This scenario leaves the Hogs with four games remaining and an overall record of 4-4. So in order to reach a bowl game, they’ll need to win two out of the final four against Mississippi State, LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri.

Mississippi State is probably the easiest of the four. If the game was being played in Fayetteville, I’d like the Razorbacks to win that game. However, since it’s on the road, it’s a more of a toss-up and probably leaning more toward Mississippi State’s way with the home field advantage and that’s probably generous on my part.

The rest of the games will likely pit Arkansas as the underdog. LSU is a rivalry game and while the Tigers are definitely the better team this season, we’ve seen more than our fair share of rivalry games go the underdog’s way. Ole Miss and Missouri will be a lot like Mississippi State, where the Hogs are the underdogs, but while it’s unlikely they do so, it’s still plausible they could pull of an upset in any of those games.

That’s what the Hogs’ season would come down to – those last four games. To think of the Hogs having to win half of those games is rather tough. It’s much more realistic for the Hogs to expect a win in at least one of those four, meaning they’ll need to pull an unlikely upset on top of that.

On the other hand, let’s say Arkansas loses to the Texas Tech on Saturday.

Now the road becomes even tougher. At that point, Arkansas would need to take three of the final four, which is highly improbable. So then the Hogs are put in the position of likely having to upset either Texas A&M, Alabama or Georgia and the idea of that happen is arguably more unrealistic than the former.

Simply put, this weekend’s game against the Red Raiders will have a tremendous effect on the rest of the Hogs’ season. With Arkansas’ schedule, it’ll be a challenge for this team to win six games. There’s no doubt this is a much different and improved team than last season. They possess physicality at the line of scrimmage, a strong running game, a serviceable quarterback and a rather large chip on their shoulders.

But with how their schedule stacks up, there’s no denying that a loss in Lubbock would probably seal their fate of another quiet bowl season.