Over the past six seasons, Auburn has ridden a roller-coaster of highs and lows.
If you break that span into two 3-year arcs, those extremes are even more pronounced.
Led by coach Gene Chizik and Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, Auburn capped arguably its greatest season in 2010 with a national championship. But after going 11-14 over the next two seasons, Chizik was fired and replaced by Gus Malzahn, the offensive coordinator of Auburn’s title-winning team five seasons ago.
Malzahn enjoyed quite the honeymoon in 2013, leading the Tigers to a spot in the BCS National Championship Game. Optimism permeated the Plains, but it was shortlived.
Auburn continued its pattern of one year of greatness followed by two seasons of regression. An 8-5 season that ended with a loss in the Outback Bowl was followed by a 7-6 campaign that was capped with a victory in the Birmingham Bowl.
So after two straight years of mostly mediocrity, Malzahn is in trouble at Auburn, according to coacheshotseat.com. But is that really the case? The Tigers’ 2016 recruiting class is ranked fifth in the SEC and ninth in the country, according to 247Sports.com.
In addition to the recruiting route, Auburn has taken steps to address deficiencies on both sides of the ball. Kevin Steele, who replaced Will Muschamp as defensive coordinator, inherits a unit that fell from 9th to 13th in total defense in the SEC during Muschamp’s one-year return stint.
On offense, former Auburn QB Kodi Burns has returned to serve as receivers coach and co-offensive coordinator. Malzahn is obviously hopeful Burns can help generate more offense out of the QB spot and try to figure out how returning signal-caller Sean White managed just one TD pass over parts of seven games in 2015.
Let’s take a look at the State of the Union, taking into account the past three years and expectations for 2016.
ON-FIELD PERFORMANCE
SEC standing: Last in the Wast in 2015.
Grade: D
Auburn has dropped significantly in the SEC over the past three seasons. After going 7-1 in 2013, the Tigers went 4-4 and then 2-6 last season. The only thing preventing Auburn from getting an F is the fact that it won its bowl game last season to finish over .500.
Most eye-opening is how poorly Auburn played at home in 2015. It finished 3-4, where it lost to every one of its SEC opponents – Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. The Tigers’ only home victories were against San Jose State, Idaho and Jacksonville State, an FBS school that took Auburn to overtime before eventually succumbing on a Peyton Barber TD run.
The good news for Malzahn and Auburn is that they open the 2016 season with five consecutive home games. The bad news is that three are against Clemson, Texas A&M and LSU. Talk about hot seats for SEC coaches. They’ll be red-hot for Malzahn’s respective peers Kevin Sumlin and Les Miles as well.
Auburn’s other home games are against Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Alabama A&M, so the Tigers’ home record should improve. But road tilts at last year’s aforementioned SEC visitors will ultimately determine the fate of Malzahn and his team.
RECRUITING
SEC standing: Between fourth and fifth in the league.
2016 rank: 5
Grade: B
The SEC has dominated recruiting, and Auburn has had to battle to finish no better than fourth in its own division.
Coincidentally, the SEC teams that finished ahead of the Tigers in recruiting this year — Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Georgia — have all had better winning percentages than Auburn over the past 3 years. But every team in the SEC – and the FBS for that matter – has had to contend with Alabama’s six consecutive No. 1 recruiting classes.
In recent years, Auburn has done quite well at running back. Jovon Robinson, the nation’s top JUCO running back two seasons ago and a member of Auburn’s 2015 recruiting class, finished strong last season and looks to be the Tigers’ top rusher this year. Malik Miller is the lone RB prospect in this year’s class, but Roc Thomas and Kerryon Johnson contributed in 2015 and should battle for snaps.
The biggest issue for Auburn since the departure of Nick Marshall has obviously been at quarterback. After being ballyhooed way too much last offseason, Jeremy Johnson got off to a disastrous start in 2015 and never truly recovered. His and White’s struggles could open the door for someone else to step in.
In addition to Johnson and White, here are the options for 2016:
- John Franklin III, a dual-threat JUCO transfer.
- Woody Barnett, a four-star, dual-threat prospect of the 2016 class from Winter Garden, Fla.
Recruiting in the SEC isn’t easy, but with Auburn landing Top-10 classes the past 3 years, it’s time for that talent to translate into wins.
Malzahn’s job depends on it.
PLAYER DEVELOPMENT
SEC standing: Above average.
Grade: B
Entering this year’s festivities, 10 Auburn players have been selected in the NFL Draft over the past 3 years.
The biggest year was 2014, when Greg Robinson and Dee Ford were taken in the first round, and Tre Mason and Jay Prosch were grabbed in the third and sixth rounds, respectively. Five Tigers – Sammie Coates, Angelo Blackson, Gabe Wright, C.J. Uzomah and Cameron Artis-Payne were drafted a year ago.
But while these success stories were products of abundant recruiting classes, several highly touted prospects haven’t worked out. D’haquille Williams, recruited by Auburn in 2014, might be the clearest example.
A former four-star prospect, the wide receiver lasted last just 17 games at Auburn before he was dismissed by the team following an alleged altercation at a bar. And according to the Montgomery Advertiser, Ricardo Louis – Williams’ former teammate at Auburn – odutperformed him at the NFL Combine.
Regarding other recent players developed at Auburn, Williams, Shon Coleman, Jonathan Jones, Avery Young, Peyton Barber and Kris Frost, all could be selected in the seventh round or earlier this year, according to cbsports.com. Meanwhile, Louis and former teammates Cassanova McKinzy, Joshua Holsey, DaVonte Lambert, Blake Countess and Melvin Ray could land in the NFL as free agents.
So Auburn apparently has no problem producing NFL-ready talent. What seems to be its issue recently is producing more victories with that talent.
FACILITIES
SEC standing: As good as any program.
Grade: A
In 2016, almost every Power 5 conference program has modern amenities, including the latest must-have: an indoor practice facility. Auburn is no exception in that regard.
As far as other toys being touted and sold to recruits, Auburn’s $13.9 million scoreboard is one of the biggest in the country. On top of that, according to AL.com, the school came up with a $145 million plan to expand Jordan-Hare Stadium before tabling it in December. So you definitely get the sense that Auburn is willing to throw big money around.
According to 247Sports.com, Auburn’s football facilities are not in the nation’s top five, which includes Alabama’s and Tennessee’s. But collectively, the Tigers’ weight room, medical staff, locker rooms, academic support staff and dining and nutrition options are not keeping prized recruits away.
COACHING
SEC standing: Behind multiple SEC peers.
Grade: C
Malzahn should consider himself lucky relative to what has happened in the SEC over the past three months.
Mark Richt, who averaged a 10-3 record over his 15 seasons but failed to win national title, was fired by Georgia. Les Miles, who has won one national championship and finished runner-up to Alabama in 2011, nearly lost his job after last season, a 9-3 campaign that included a bowl victory.
Malzahn had a really good chance to threaten Saban and Alabama for national and SEC supremacy in 2013. But now he’s on the ropes.
Malzahn has extended Auburn’s recent tradition of producing 1,000-yard rushers. Since 2009, eight Tigers have exceeded that plateau. He even strengthened his reputation as an “offensive genius” by turning a former defensive back in Marshall into a winning quarterback – coincidentally the two best seasons of Malzahn’s Auburn tenure as head coach.
It’s true. Malzahn has to contend with the best team in the country being in his division — heck, home state — year after year. But he’s running out of time to tackle that challenge.
Beyond annual Top-10 recruiting classes, facility improvements and recent changes to Malzahn’s staff, there’s not much more that can be done to better his current situation. Other than winning more often, of course.
It’ll be interesting to see if Malzahn survives Auburn’s opening five-game gauntlet. If he gets through that in one piece, there might be reason for hope on the Plains after all.
Stan Chrapowicki is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers SEC football, Alabama and Auburn.
