Using ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) as a guide, Florida has a 26.5 percent chance to beat Alabama on Saturday.


There’s no question that Alabama has superior talent than Florida, so what’s the best way for an underdog to get a victory on the road? Force turnovers.

Fortunately for the Gators, forcing turnovers is an aspect in which they’ve had much success this season. Currently, Florida ranks 11th nationally with eight turnovers forced, four interceptions and four fumbles recovered. On the flip side, Alabama has struggled to create any turnovers on defense. The normally opportunistic Kirby Smart defense has just one fumble recovery in three games and surprisingly no interceptions.

With an offense that’s struggled at times (see first half against Kentucky), it’ll be challenge to drive down the field and score enough points on this Alabama defense to win. Occasional short fields would do wonders for the Gators, especially when they need to create a spark on offense in front of a raucous environment.

Moreover, Florida’s history under Will Muschamp when they have won the turnover battle is much more favorable than when they’ve lost it. In the Gators’ 26 wins during Muschamp’s time in Gainesville, Florida has plus-32 turnover margin. Whereas in Muschamp’s 14 losses, Florida has a turnover margin of minus-24, a difference of 56.

Expect the Gators’ defense to be aggressive in attacking Alabama quarterback Blake Sims in hopes of forcing some bad decisions from the senior signal caller. He hasn’t proven to be turnover-prone at this point in the season, but Saturday will be his first big game as starting quarterback and how he’ll perform in the high-pressure situations is definitely up in the air.