I have a theory, and the more I think and talk about it, it really doesn’t sound far-fetched.

It’s about Josh Allen. No, it isn’t that Allen would be the top pick in the NFL Draft had he been at Alabama, though I’m sure that’s been said (I actually think because of what it meant to have that kind of season at Kentucky that Allen got more eyes on him).

But my theory is related to his draft stock, which is looking solid heading into the most important week of this long, drawn-out process. It would be a surprise to see Allen fall out of the top 5 after the year that’s been for him. You know, SEC Defensive Player of the Year, 21.5 tackles for loss (only 5 SEC players in the past 14 seasons did that), 17 sacks (fifth-best since 2005) and 5 forced fumbles.

My theory is that there are a handful of drafts during the 21st century in which Allen would be picked first. That’s right. First overall.

Yes, that’s extremely subjective. Quarterbacks usually are the top picks, and usually it takes a down year at the position for that not to happen. But in an era in which edge rushers have such high value, it doesn’t seem radical to suggest that a 4-year guy who developed and produced like Allen did would be the top pick in a given draft.

I’m not the only one who believes that. Mark Stoops has obviously been singing Allen’s praises all year. A couple weeks ago, I got to talk to Stoops about his star linebacker ahead of the draft. I asked him a simple question — why do you think Allen should be picked No. 1 overall this year?

“I just think he’s a complete player. You know, I haven’t been in that position where you’re in the NFL and you’re selecting that high, and obviously they’re investing an awful lot in these top players. I just think with him, he’s a can’t-miss guy,” Stoops told SDS. “There’s no doubt about it. He’s an impact player, he’s extremely versatile, knock on wood, he’s been healthy every day he’s been here, practices all day every day so he’s extremely durable and he’s a great teammate. He’s unbelievable in the locker room. He’s a leader.

“He cares. He cares about winning. Money’s not gonna change him one bit. He’s gonna wanna be the most dominant player in the NFL and that’s just his mentality. You have to love a guy like that.”

Spot the lie in anything Stoops said. I can’t find one.

OK, I hear you. Yeah, Stoops is biased. Crazy biased. He loves that dude. As he should. Kentucky loved Allen so much that the athletic department decided to put him on a billboard in the middle of Times Square.

So I threw my theory at someone who doesn’t have a Kentucky bias. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller (@NFLDraftScout on Twitter) has Allen at No. 3 on his big board trailing only Quinnen Williams and Nick Bosa.

I asked him if my Allen theory was crazy.

“No, that’s not crazy at all,” Miller told SDS. “I think there are still some teams that are having that debate or they were as of earlier (last week). When I made the change to move Quinnen Williams to the top, I expected a lot of texts of, ‘You’re an idiot.’ And I actually got a lot of texts of like, ‘That’s actually pretty in line with what we’re all seeing to and that Josh Allen isn’t far behind (Quinnen) … but you know, 2016, he might not have been the first player picked but the first player on boards … that would’ve been a year that Allen could’ve been.

“He definitely would’ve been in 2015, he probably would’ve been in 2013 as well. That was just a terrible draft.”

Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

That’s interesting. So perhaps my theory is a bit too subjective. It’s hard to go back and figure out whether a team picking No. 1 overall would have held on to the pick instead of trading it away, and it’s hard to determine how in love with a certain quarterback they might’ve been.

But would Allen as No. 1 overall on big boards? I can get behind that theory even more.

The 2015 NFL Draft that Miller mentioned had a question-filled Jameis Winston going No. 1 overall. Former Florida star Dante Fowler was the first non-quarterback picked behind Winston and Marcus Mariota. Allen, in my opinion, was a better prospect than Fowler and not just because of the production advantage. Allen beat Fowler in all but one drill at the combine (Fowler ran a 4.60-second 40-yard dash compared to 4.63 seconds for Allen).

So yes, in that year, it’s certainly possible that Allen would’ve been tops on plenty of draft boards. And that 2013 season in which Central Michigan offensive tackle Eric Fisher was the No. 1 overall pick, that doesn’t seem like a stretch to say Allen would’ve been the top target.

Look at the drafts in which quarterbacks weren’t picked No. 1 overall in the 21st century and there are probably about 3-4 years there in which Allen would’ve been either the first pick or first on teams’ boards.

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The years that seem tougher to justify are the Clowney/Garrett drafts. Those dudes were obvious No. 1 overall picks throughout the pre-draft process, or at least after the combine.

It’s interesting, though, because from a production standpoint, Allen’s senior year actually stacked up pretty well to the best individual seasons from Clowney and Garrett.

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“I was telling some of our producers yesterday, people don’t seem to understand how huge of a season he had. He should’ve won Heisman votes he had such a good year,” Miller said. “He’s crazy year but he hasn’t been talked about at least as much as I think he should’ve been.”

Obviously that’s not saying that Allen’s production alone would’ve made him a better prospect than Clowney or Garrett, both of whom were 5-star freaks who lived up to the billing. Allen, meanwhile, was a 2-star recruit.

But there’s not the athleticism gap some might think there is between Allen and the 5-star SEC edge rushers who went No. 1 overall (Allen was 262 pounds at the combine while Clowney was 266 and Garrett was 272).

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It’s funny how Clowney and Garrett were able to break past the “you must draft a QB at No. 1 overall” notion because of how can’t-miss they were. As Stoops said, Allen looks about as can’t-miss as there is.

And sure, there are knocks. Some pointed out that he’s not crafty enough yet as an EDGE rusher and that he needs to develop more moves to get to the quarterback on a consistent basis in the NFL. That’s fair. That’s also not a limitation by any stretch. If anything, that just shows an area in which Allen can continue to grow.

Still, it seems all but certain that certain that Allen will not go No. 1 overall to the Cardinals. Maybe he won’t be picked second by the 49ers with how highly-regarded Nick Bosa was in the pre-draft process, even though he never had a season like Allen’s and they tested similarly at the Combine.

I go back to what Stoops said about Allen. “Complete player.” “Versatile.” “Durable.” “Leader.” Call me crazy, but that sounds like the type of player you throw in the middle of your defense and watch him dominate for the decade.

Here’s another word that will likely describe Allen — “steal.”