Kentucky, perennial NCAA contender, has been a popular Final Four pick throughout the week leading up its NCAA Tournament’s opener Thursday evening. But as UMBC showed us all last year, there are no sure things in March. What are three potential flies in the ointment that could ruin Kentucky’s season this weekend?

1. The lack of P.J. Washington

Fresh off the news that Washington will be held out of tonight’s game with Abilene Christian, Big Blue Nation has to wonder if they’ve seen the last of the sophomore forward who was Kentucky’s leader and best player.

Sure, John Calipari continues to reiterate that Washington’s injury isn’t serious … but as the not-serious injury has moved from walking boot to hard cast and missing the team’s first NCAA Tournament game, the subtle subtext is that like previous injuries from Cal’s tenure (Jarred Vanderbilt, Reid Travis) the sunny prognosis might be an attempt to subterfuge no intention to return the injured player to game action.

Kentucky is probably OK against Abilene Christian without P.J. Will they be OK against Wofford or Seton Hall in the second round? That’s a heck of a question, particularly given that Washington scored 29 and UK still lost to Seton Hall in the regular season. If he doesn’t get well quickly, there’ll be some nervous moments Saturday from the Big Blue Nation.

2. Not defending the 3-pointer

The Wildcats tend to struggle when not defending the trey, and assuming a Thursday win, Saturday could make some major trouble in that area.

In UK’s first meeting, Seton Hall made 11-of-26 3-pointers. UK is 4-4 when allowing 10 treys or more (and thus 23-2 when NOT allowing 10 treys). Aside from history with Seton Hall, Wofford made 364 3s this season (5th in the NCAA) and did so while shooting 41.6% from 3-point range (2nd in the NCAA).

The Terriers average 11 treys a game, and each of their four most frequent 3-point shooters connect on a better than 41% clip.

Meanwhile, Seton Hall actually was 237th in made 3s, and 282nd in percentage (32.4%). Only three times this year has Seton Hall made more 3s against an opponent than they did against Kentucky, but if guard Myles Powell channels his inner Reggie Miller again, it could be a long Saturday for UK.

3. Overconfidence

In light of No. 1 and No. 2 above, point three should be a non-issue. But this Kentucky team hasn’t always had superb focus.

Particularly now that sophomore leader Washington is out for game one and questionable for a second game, Kentucky’s core rotation will be made up of six freshmen, a sophomore, and one grad transfer.

Maybe the most analogous situation this year came when the Wildcats played shorthanded without Reid Travis for several games, one of which was a home game against NIT-bound Arkansas in which Kentucky fell behind by 15 points and actually trailed for over 60% of the game.

Yes, Kentucky rallied to win that particular game, but an inexperienced team could struggle with overconfidence and dig a hole that might be hard or impossible to overcome against a better opponent. All it takes is one such game to ruin a season.