In December 2021, you couldn’t have a college football conversation without getting the question.

“Brian Kelly at LSU or Lincoln Riley at USC … which new coach will be better?”

There were variations to that question. Some took it a step further by asking which coach would win a national title first. Kelly and Riley, though seemingly at much different stages of their careers, were linked because both made stunning moves by leaving respected Power 5 programs in an attempt to take that next step and win that elusive national title.

Roughly 2.5 years later, that debate appears to be all but over.

Kelly is running away with it.

But wait a minute. Don’t LSU and USC play a game in Las Vegas to kick off the 2024 season? Shouldn’t we declare the winner of that debate on the field as both try to replace Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks while finding any sort of defensive answer with new coordinators?

No thanks. Because even if Riley leads USC to a victory, I’ll still take the past and future of LSU over USC every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Speaking of Sunday, which is they day those squads will meet over Labor Day weekend, let’s not forget that Riley didn’t want any part of that game. He tried to get USC out of the neutral-site showdown, according to our Matt Hayes. Riley then doubled down on his desire to limit USC’s future nonconference foes by invoking Alabama’s 2010s scheduling approach:

Riley is right that Alabama did schedule to win championships, but he’s wrong in assuming that the Tide never played anyone. Nick Saban just made sure those were neutral-site matchups in nonconference play as opposed to home-and-homes. Saban wouldn’t have taken a game like the LSU opener in Vegas off the Tide’s schedule.

(I realize that LSU and Alabama would never play in a neutral-site game in the regular season, but you get the point.)

That’s been the biggest difference between Kelly and Riley so far. Kelly joined the SEC gauntlet when he could’ve spent the rest of his career at Notre Dame, where he reached the Playoff. Riley, of course, ran from the SEC months after Oklahoma agreed to join the conference, much to the chagrin of his former athletic director, Joe Castiglione.

Not the best look.

But regardless of what some might think about Riley’s Oklahoma exit and his desire for more favorable competition, the worst look for him is that instead of rounding into form as a recruiter in a talent-rich area of the country like Kelly has been doing, he’s far from that.

USC’s 2025 class ranks No. 25 in America. It doesn’t feature a single 5-star recruit, it has just 2 top-100 recruits and it has just 1 top-15 recruit from California. Compare that to Kelly, who has the No. 4 class in 2025 with 6 of the top 10 recruits from Louisiana. His class boasts 3 5-star recruits, including the No. 1 overall recruit, quarterback Bryce Underwood.

Once upon a time, some thought that would be the type of class that Riley would covet every year in Los Angeles while Kelly and his failed Southern accent would fall on deaf ears in the Bayou.

Yeah, about that.

Take recruiting rankings for what they are. A horrific season and an elite class can fall apart in an instant.

But with Kelly, that seems less likely than most. Nobody in the sport has a longer active streak of 10-win seasons than Kelly, who just did that for the 7th consecutive year. Mind you, he took over an LSU program that had 39 scholarship players in its bowl game before he arrived. While Kelly didn’t accomplish the original national title mission yet, a 12-4 mark against SEC competition at least feels like he’s on track.

What about Riley’s start suggests that he’s on track to build USC into a championship team? The fact that he finally fired Alex Grinch as his defensive coordinator? It’s a start, but it’s perfectly fair to wonder how Riley’s teams will defend in the Big Ten when the biggest knock of his 7 seasons as a head coach is the lack of physicality.

No quarterback is walking through that door and allowing Riley to overcome that. How do we know? Because Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Spencer Rattler and most recently, Caleb Williams couldn’t do that.

With Kelly, any potential hurdle doesn’t seem nearly as difficult to overcome, especially in a post-Nick Saban world. Even if Saban had stayed at Alabama, Kelly’s Year 1 win against the G.O.A.T. suggested he wasn’t going to be standing in his way on an annual basis. What’s standing in Kelly’s way of eventually winning a title? An 0-1 record against Kirby Smart?

Once upon a time, maybe Kelly’s knock was that he didn’t have elite quarterback play. Then Jayden Daniels happened. And unlike Riley, who has had 1 top-50 defense during his time as a head coach, Kelly had 6 consecutive top-40 scoring defenses before that streak ended in horrific fashion last year.

Kelly’s path to a title might not be straight, but it’s not filled with roadblocks like Riley’s. Hence, why Riley is doing whatever he can with USC’s schedule to find backroads to a title.

Unfortunately for Riley, there wasn’t an exit to avoid that LSU matchup. It’s certainly possible that he’ll continue LSU’s losing streak in season openers, which is currently at 4. Perhaps Riley will even surprise the oddsmakers, who have USC with an over/under of 7 wins (-125 on DraftKings), with a 9-3 record in Year 1 in the Big Ten while LSU’s defensive issues will continue.

But all signs point to Kelly distancing himself from Riley and leaving that debate in the rearview mirror.