Will LSU make the College Football Playoff in 2024? Breaking down the betting odds

LSU is hoping to get back to the College Football Playoff in 2024 after an uneven performance — particularly on the defensive side of the ball — last season.

With the CFP set to expand to 12 teams for the first time this fall, LSU will have some margin-for-error as it looks to compete for another national championship. However, the road to the Playoff will still be difficult for a LSU team that has to replace multiple first-round picks and both coordinators from last year’s squad.

The betting markets see LSU’s Playoff hopes as a near toss-up. If you want to back the Tigers, FanDuel has the best number at +128 for them to reach the 12-team field. However, bettors who don’t buy into LSU’s contender status can wager on the Tigers to miss the CFP at a price of -145 over at ESPN BET.

Here’s a breakdown of LSU’s roster, returning production and schedule that should help determine if it’s wise to bet on — or against — LSU’s Playoff aspirations:

LSU’s roster and returning production

LSU ranks 60th in ESPN’s weighted returning production metric, which is pretty good news considering the Tigers lost 3 first-round picks on the offensive side of the ball. Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are all in the NFL now, as are a few other contributing pieces from last year’s team.

But LSU does bring back the majority of its defense. The Tigers rank 28th nationally in defensive weighted returning production and figure to be much-improved on that side of the ball after hiring Blake Baker away from Mizzou to run the defense.

Personnel-wise, LSU returns star Harold Perkins who will be hoping to get back to his 2022 form after a down season a year ago. Defensive lineman Sai’Vion Jones, defensive lineman Jacobian Guillory, linebacker Bradyn Swinson, linebacker Greg Penn, defensive back Major Burns and defensive back Sage Ryan are amongst LSU’s most important returners on that end of the field. There’s also incoming transfers Gio Paez and Jardin Gilbert who could earn starting roles, as well as true freshman cornerback PJ Woodland who stood out in the spring.

Offensively, it starts with a new look at quarterback. Garrett Nussmeier is expected to take over as the starter for Daniels, who is now in the NFL. Nussmeier has stuck in Baton Rouge after being the backup for the past 3 seasons. He’s already attempted 219 passes at the collegiate level, so we have a decent idea of his strengths and weaknesses as a passer. His best season came in 2022 when he averaged 9.5 yards per attempt. Nussmeier isn’t afraid to force the issue, but turnovers have historically been an issue for him — 7 interceptions compared to 11 touchdowns — so that is one thing he’ll have to clean up as LSU’s starter.

Losing 2 first-round wide receivers is something that LSU will have to work to overcome. Kyren Lacy, who was third on the team last year with 558 receiving yards, is back to lead LSU’s wide receiver room this fall. Chris Hilton Jr. and Aaron Anderson are both back as well and are expected to have more significant roles. Transfers CJ Daniels and Zavion Thomas could see significant action as well.

Josh Williams is expected to start at running back after being the No. 2 in that role last season behind Logan Diggs. Tight end Mason Taylor also returns for his third season as LSU’s starter.

On the offensive line, LSU is fortunate to bring back 4 starters — including one of the best tackles in the country in Will Campbell. Redshirt freshman and former 4-star recruit DJ Chester is entering fall camp as the favorite to win the starting center job, which, barring injury, will be the only vacancy on LSU’s O-Line.

It’s worth noting that LSU has 2 new coordinators in 2024, but for very different reasons.

Coach Brian Kelly overhauled his defensive staff, bringing in Blake Baker from Mizzou to turn things around on that end. The Tigers also made a few high-profile defensive assistant hires, including defensive line coach Bo Davis and defensive backs coach Corey Raymond. LSU struggled mightily on defense last year, so the hope is that a (mostly) new staff will get LSU back to Playoff-quality on that end of the field.

LSU also lost its offensive coordinator, Mike Denbrock, to Notre Dame. That was a significant loss for the Tigers, as Denbrock was at the head of what was arguably the nation’s best offense in 2023. Kelly replaced Denbrock with a pair of internal hires — co-offensive coordinators Joe Sloan and Cortez Hankton. Sloan was LSU’s quarterbacks coach over the past 2 seasons and previously called plays at Louisiana Tech in 2021.

LSU’s 2024 schedule

Like every other SEC program, LSU’s 2024 schedule will have a different look to it. The Tigers no longer face former SEC West foes Mississippi State or Auburn. However, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss do remain on LSU’s slate for 2024.

LSU will also face Oklahoma this year in the final game of the regular season. The Tigers will host that game against OU, which could have College Football Playoff implications for both programs.

In the nonconference, LSU will face off against USC, UCLA, South Alabama and Nicholls. Its matchup against USC will take place in Las Vegas and is one of the most highly-anticipated Week 1 games on the calendar.

Here’s LSU’s full schedule for the 2024 season:

Sept. 1: USC (neutral-site game in Las Vegas)
Sept. 7: Nicholls
Sept. 14: at South Carolina
Sept. 21: UCLA
Sept. 28: South Alabama
Oct. 12: Ole Miss
Oct. 19: at Arkansas
Oct. 26: at Texas A&M
Nov. 9: Alabama
Nov. 16: at Florida
Nov. 23: Vanderbilt
Nov. 30: Oklahoma

Overall, it’s a very manageable schedule for a LSU team that will be looking to make it to the CFP. The slate ranks as the second-easiest schedule for any SEC team this year, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

Will LSU reach the College Football Playoff in 2024?

I generally buy into LSU’s improvements to its defensive coaching staff and believe that will pay immediate dividends this fall — and even more so longterm. But there are enough question marks elsewhere (mostly on offense) have some serious concerns about LSU’s upside in 2024.

Nussmeier’s turnover woes combined with an inexperienced offensive coordinator tandem are legitimately worryisome. The defense should be better, but it might need to make monumental steps forward in order make up for the production that LSU lost on the offensive side of the ball.

There are concerns about LSU’s defense, too. The Tigers lost 2 significant difference-makers at defensive tackle in Mekhi Wingo and Maason Smith to the NFL Draft. It doesn’t appear that LSU has any obvious answers as it looks to replace that disruptive duo. There’s also reason to be skeptical about the secondary given that Woodland appears to have won a starting cornerback job as a 3-star true freshman who stands at just 5-foot-11, 165 pounds.

There’s also this: ESPN’s FPI gives the Tigers just a 25.3% chance to reach the College Football Playoff — and therefore a 74.7% chance to miss it. Given the implied probability of 59.18% to miss the Playoff from ESPN BET’s -145 line, that equates to an expected value of $26.22 on a $100 bet. That’s one of the highest-value CFP futures you can make at this point in the offseason, if you believe in FPI.

ESPN’s SP+ is a little more bullish on the Tigers. That projection gives LSU a 43.3% chance to go 10-2 — the likely threshold LSU would need to meet in order to make the Playoff. But even that model is too low on LSU to feel good about backing the Tigers as Playoff participant in 2024.

I think LSU will be in the Playoff hunt this season, but I’d bet on the Tigers just missing out in 2024.

PICK: LSU to miss the College Football Playoff (-145 on ESPN BET)

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