It’s no secret. Scheme against Mississippi State’s offense and there’s one thing that’s at the top of every scouting report.

Contain No. 7.

Nick Fitzgerald came out of nowhere and emerged as the heart and soul of the Mississippi State offense in 2016. The former 3-star recruit became everything Dan Mullen could’ve hoped he would be. Fitzgerald made big-time throws, he plowed through defenders and he ran past secondaries. In the post-Dak Prescott era, Fitzgerald reminded the college football world that Mullen knows a thing or two about developing quarterbacks.

In 2017, that’ll be no different. Fitzgerald is the most important player every time he steps on the field. Take him away from the Bulldogs’ offense, though, and you’re left with a bunch of question marks.

Can the Bulldogs win with a true freshman quarterback? Are there enough reliable pass-catchers? Will the two young offensive linemen be liabilities?

Those issues are somewhat mitigated with Fitzgerald on the field. A quarterback is asked to do a lot in Mullen’s offense, and by every stretch, Fitzgerald fits that mold. One could argue that no SEC player is more crucial to his team’s success.

The question is whether that’s a good or bad thing.

Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Fitzgerald is obviously a special player who the vast majority of college football coaches wish they could have. His ability to make things look easy — he can take a zone read 65 yards to the house and he can barely step into a 40-yard dime — is what makes it seem like he can handle any situation.

He did it all for MSU last year, because well, he had to. That won’t change in 2017. The Bulldogs’ best chance to win rests with No. 7.

But if Mullen wants two more full seasons of Fitzgerald, the usage has to be trimmed a bit.

Yes, Fitzgerald is 6-5, 230 pounds, and tough as nails. But for all the comparisons to Prescott, take a look at their usages side by side:

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In all likelihood, that 66 percent for Fitzgerald gets up around 73 percent like it was for Prescott his senior year. Fitzgerald is that valuable. Not all yards are created equal. There are, of course, many times in which Fitzgerald will take hits on the read-option that don’t count as touches for him.

To get to 73 percent would be a lot for a true dual-threat quarterback (it isn’t fair to compare usage numbers to air-raid quarterbacks).

Remember Tim Tebow’s Heisman Trophy season in 2007 when it seemed like Mullen, then Florida’s offensive coordinator, had him do everything? Tebow accounted for 70 percent of Florida’s yards. That year, Tebow racked up 210 carries. It wouldn’t be crazy to see Fitzgerald eclipse that number in 2017.

But there’s a difference between Tebow’s Florida teams and even Prescott’s MSU teams from a few years ago. The 2007 Florida team, which had a rare three-loss regular season, had laughers. The Gators won six games by at least four possessions. Prescott’s 2014 and 2015 teams won four games apiece by at least four possessions.

What do those games mean for high-volume guys like Tebow and Prescott? Less snaps. Less hits. A clipboard in the fourth quarter.

How many games did Fitzgerald’s Mississippi State squad win by more than two touchdowns last year? One.

And I hate to break it to Bulldogs fans, but that could happen again this year. Who’s getting the ball in those nail-biter finishes? Fitzgerald, of course.

Everybody wishes they had a guy like Fitzgerald in crunch time, but when crunch time happens every week, it can take its toll on a dual-threat quarterback. Mullen will be tasked with once again finding the right balance.

The earlier he can light that victory cigar, the better:

 

It’s still crazy to think that at this time a year ago, Fitzgerald was just another name on the depth chart. Guys with serious Tennessee-Chattanooga interest aren’t supposed to waltz into the SEC and become indispensable pieces.

Fitzgerald is far from a finished product. Mullen emphasized how he needs to improve his 54 percent accuracy and that he needs to be content with not making the highlight-reel play at times. That’s natural.

Equally important in Fitzgerald’s development will be the pieces around him. The nation’s 93rd-ranked scoring defense can help him out a little more. Donald Gray can become a consistent deep threat who prevents too many loaded fronts. Aeris Williams can pick up where he left off and become a 200-carry guy.

Those things can all happen. For all we know in August, they will.

Maybe concerns about Fitzgerald’s usage will look foolish in three and a half months when he’s on the sidelines by the fourth quarter in the midst of another Egg Bowl blowout. Only time will tell.

But if they can avoid it, the Bulldogs would be better suited not to put all of their eggs in Fitzgerald’s basket.