Using ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) as a guide, Missouri (3-0) has a 78.6 percent chance to beat Indiana (0-2) on Saturday.


As Texas A&M showed last season, it’s possible to field an atrocious defense and win football games if your offense is that good. Let’s clarify that: you can if your pass offense is good.

Nate Sudfeld is a decent quarterback, but running the football is the one thing Indiana does well. If the Hooisers have any chance of beating Missouri on Saturday, the offensive line needs to spring Coleman on several long runs, and probably finish with a positive turnover margin as well.

It’s hard to picture Indiana’s defense, which gave up 45 points to a backup MAC quarterback the last time out, shutting down Maty Mauk and the Mizzou offense. And it’s hard to picture IU overcoming a multi-score deficit by running the ball.

In other words, Indiana may have better than a 21 percent chance to win this game based on the computers, but a lot of things have to break the right way for the Hoosiers to pull off the road upset.